SIO: JOANINHA - Post-Tropical

[TorSkk]

93S INVEST 190314 1800 11.8S 70.4E SHEM 15 1010

[TorSkk]

JTWC

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.8S 63.2E, APPROXIMATELY 639 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 182246Z SSMI 85GHZ DEPICT A
WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS 93S BORDERING AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR WITH POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING
WATERS SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATE WEAK,
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW

Meteo France

Suspect area South-West of the Chagos archipelago :
Within the MT an area of concentrated thunderstorm activity is still located between 10-13°S and
55-70°E. Last ASCAT swaths show a broad trough with probably a more pronounced circulation
near 62E. In the next days, environmental conditions appears conducive for the intensification of
this system (good monsoon feeding and upper divergence first at north than on polarside). only a
westerly constraint increasing from Sunday may limit its potential.
Numerical guidance is becoming to converge toward a consensus. Indeed, last main models runs
suggest a cyclogenesis east of 60E. Later, due to the presence of a ridge at its north-east and the lack
of high geopotentials at south, a southward then southeatsward track is likely. Rodrigues island
appears much more threaten for now than the other islands of the Mascarene Archipelago. On the
fastness of the deepening, there still some inconsistencies, with IFS and its ensemble slower than
the others. This scenario may be too cautious given the recent Arome runs (coupled with IFS) and
the imperfect analysis.

The risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm North of the Mascarenes archipelago
becomes moderate on Thursday and high from Friday.



This is another system with a high intensity potential in this historic SWIO season

[jaguarjace]

93S INVEST 190320 1200 12.6S 61.2E SHEM 25 1004

[wxman57]

Looks like a cyclone with 30-35 kt winds now. La Reunion should be initiating advisories soon.

[euro6208]

Menacing cyclone

[Sciencerocks]

It's a cat4!

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

WTXS31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 20.5S 67.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 67.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.9S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 21.6S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 22.3S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 23.1S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 25.2S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 29.0S 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 34.0S 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 67.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
A RECENT PGTW SATELLITE EYE FIX AND A 271734Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE
INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF RECENT
AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND CIMSS AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. TC 22S HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS IN RESPONSE
TO PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT AIDED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS TURNING POLEWARD
IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, WHICH WILL
BECOME THE PRIOR STEERING MECHANISM DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC
22S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY IN THE NEAR-TERM AS STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OFFSETS THE IMPACT OF INCREASING WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. STEADIER WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED
AFTER TAU 12 AS THE SYSTEM CONTENDS WITH INCREASING VWS. BY TAU 96,
TC 22S WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CUT OFF FROM
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY JET AND UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION.
TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU
120. THE CYCLONE SHOULD EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL, BUT AFTER TAU 120. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST
GUIDANCE. THE UKMET AND GALWEM MODELS PREDICT A SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER,
MEANDERING TRACK RELATIVE TO THE OTHER CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
REMAINING MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK SPEED,
BUT NOT DIRECTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS, WHICH BEST REFLECT THE ANTICIPATED
EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN AS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE EAST. GIVEN NOTED MODEL FORECAST SPREAD, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z,
281500Z AND 282100Z.//
NNNN

[StormChaser75]

Close up view into the eye of Cyclone Joaniinha.

[Tailspin]

looks quite a intense cyclone.