SIO: VERONICA - Post-Tropical

[Nancy Smar]

95S INVEST 190318 0000 12.0S 122.0E SHEM 15 0

[Nancy Smar]

A tropical low (19U) has developed north of the Kimberley, near 13.1S 122.7E at 2pm WST Monday, which is about 550km north of Broome. The system is forecast to track generally west southwest over the next few days and is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone by or on Thursday. At this time it is likely to be well north of the Pilbara coast. There is some uncertainty in the system's movement and there is a chance it moves towards the Pilbara coast later in the week, possibly impacting the Pilbara coast over the weekend.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday:Low
Wednesday:Moderate
Thursday:High

[WAcyclone]

UKMET predicts this system to reach 907 mb. This is one of the strongest forecasts I have ever seen from this model. ECMWF, GFS and FV3 are as well very aggressive with this one (with pressures at least in the 930s).



Source:meteologix

[Hayabusa]

TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1S 121.3E TO 16.0S 116.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 190000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 121.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.7S 121.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 121.0E, APPROXIMATELY
231 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190105Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CURVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 181359Z ASCAT PASS
REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS WRAPPING IN FROM
THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-
20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING
WATERS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AND GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 18-30
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
200300Z.
//
NNNN

[WAcyclone]

Bom has now issued its first forecast for this system (which will be named Veronica soon). Note the unusual shape of the "cone" which has been modified by the forecaster to better reflect the model spread.

[WAcyclone]

Those beautiful arc clouds on the southern and western edge of the system are almost 500 km in size.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/metofficestorms/status/1107962519551963136

[wxman57]

Plenty of 35 and 40kt winds on a 13Z ScatSat pass. I think they cover the 3 quadrants required for a BoM upgrade on their next advisory. Landfall looking more likely on the Pilbara Coast west of Port Hedland near Karratha.

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Veronica

Issued at 9:07 am AWST Wednesday 20 March 2019.

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Veronica

Issued at 2:51 pm AWST Wednesday 20 March 2019. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 1.

[WAcyclone]

Looks like rapid intensification is already well underway. The ceiling is definitely high for this one:

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone Veronica

Issued at 8:47 pm AWST Wednesday 20 March 2019. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 2.

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone Veronica

Issued at 2:56 am AWST Thursday 21 March 2019. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 3.

[Hayabusa]

JTWC is forecasting and the models (GFS) this Veronica to be a cat 5, which is slightly surprising as the OHC isn't much compared to Trevor's path, but then again there was Wutip that made an example. SSTs are a factor too but Trevor's SST path is more than Veronica's

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Has that "bulge" look in the spiral bands that some of the most intense TCs in the world have plus a pinhole eye. This is going to be 155 knot+ easily.

[Camerooski]

Veronica has a beautiful pinhole eye right now, and has most likely exploded into a category five!

[Monsoonjr99]

Veronica's rate of intensification is reminiscent of Patricia or Ernie.

[mrbagyo]

This would be a cat 5 in no time.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1108525806815535104

[mrbagyo]