SIO: VERONICA - Post-Tropical

[WAcyclone]

JTWC is forecasting and the models (GFS) this Veronica to be a cat 5, which is slightly surprising as the OHC isn't much compared to Trevor's path, but then again there was Wutip that made an example. SSTs are a factor too but Trevor's SST path is more than Veronica's

The heat potential of the ocean is actually much larger in Veronica's path compared to Trevor's due to the Gulf of Carpentaria being very shallow:



It doesn't really make a difference though since the MPI for both areas is at or above Tip/Patricia's intensity levels:

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone Veronica

Issued at 9:04 am AWST Thursday 21 March 2019. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 4.



21S VERONICA 190321 0000 16.4S 117.7E SHEM 125 930

[Kingarabian]

Holy moly

[doomhaMwx]

Now at 125kts by JTWC. Close to SATCON estimate.

CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR VERONICA (21S) 2019
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 03202259
SATCON: MSLP = 936 hPa MSW = 120 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 115.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 118 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 190 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 5.9 knots Source: IR

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1108574978222510080

[1900hurricane]

Looks like eyewall replacement is beginning.

[mrbagyo]

Looks like eyewall replacement is beginning.

Yup, looks like that's the case.
The CDO is also building in size.
I expect the ERC to be seamless - might see a buzzsaw tomorrow

[WAcyclone]

Looks like eyewall replacement is beginning.

Yup, looks like that's the case.
The CDO is also building in size.
I expect the ERC to be seamless - might see a buzzsaw tomorrow

There doesn't seem to be any indication of an EWRC in recent microwave imagery. At least for now...

[1900hurricane]

That's because I think it has already completed. You could see the developing outer on microwave imagery before 00Z.

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone Veronica

Issued at 11:40 pm AWST Thursday 21 March 2019. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 8.

[BYG Jacob]

Can't recall seeing such extreme levels of intensification since Patricia.

[mrbagyo]

Veronica just needs to clear the eye and she's there.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/WXappraiser/status/1108936570596319234

[TyphoonNara]

JTWC think it has weakened to 110 knots.

[TyphoonNara]

TPXS10 PGTW 220338

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA)

B. 22/0230Z

C. 5.94S

D. 113.48E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T6.0/6.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A
DT OF 6.5. MET YIELDS A 5.5 AND PT YIELDS A 6.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
21/2245Z 17.50S 116.88E SSMS


BERMEA

[WAcyclone]

The authorities have just issued a storm surge map for Port Hedland based on a worst case scenario. A worst case surge of 7.6 m (25 ft) would submerge large areas of the town:







Source: Town of Port Hedland

[mrbagyo]

Convection is waning in Veronica's eastern & southern sector.
Dry air, low OHC?

[1900hurricane]

Looks like dry air intrusion to me.

[wxman57]

Veronica looks angry this afternoon. I think it's upset about ingesting some dry air last night. It's eye (or mouth) is 70 miles across now.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1109400618039476224