ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

anyone think they'll extend watches/warnings up the georiga coast? supposed to leave for savannah tomorrow and not sure what to do!

I wouldn't think they'll get TS warnings in Savannah. It's too far west. Wxman57 what do you think?

Well, it depends on how far west it appears the storm will go, but Savannah is at about 81W longitude.

[weatherwindow]

http://m24digital.com/2012/10/25/el-huracan-sandy-llego-a-cuba-con-vientos-de-casi-180-kilometros-por-hora/

Weather station at Gran Piedra, Cuba, reported gusts to 152 mph, according to José Rubiera, Cuba's Chief Meteorologist

Sandy..is this terrain generated?
Orographic?

[JC380]

Is there any type of shear or dry air that'll potentially weaken Sandy before she makes it up the coast?

[Aric Dunn]

these guys are really biting on this west idea..nam and euro, gfs came west too a bit..sandy is clearly not going to be taking a very straight line through the duration of her life


BigJoeBastardi1 min
Hurricane conditions will batter fla coast from West Palm to Cape Canat times.I like ECMWF turn west and loop to within 100 miles of coast


RyanMaue16 mins
Not sold on #Sandy inner-core surviving much longer. Looking ragged, could become part of large gyre -- and orbit westward.

Yeah I have been noticing some strange vort that looks like its trying develop well west of the center. in all that convection. maybe the euro and NAM were onto something.

[crimi481]

Is this Barc Forcing happening? "Somehing happening here -what it is- is not exactly clear"
Sandy center looks like its becoming a large rotating circle.(like what we saw in recent large sized storm)
Ya think?

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

[pgoss11]

these guys are really biting on this west idea..nam and euro, gfs came west too a bit..sandy is clearly not going to be taking a very straight line through the duration of her life


BigJoeBastardi1 min
Hurricane conditions will batter fla coast from West Palm to Cape Canat times.I like ECMWF turn west and loop to within 100 miles of coast


RyanMaue16 mins
Not sold on #Sandy inner-core surviving much longer. Looking ragged, could become part of large gyre -- and orbit westward.

Yeah I have been noticing some strange vort that looks like its trying develop well west of the center. in all that convection. maybe the euro and NAM were onto something.

Well that would be the proverbial "fly in the ointment"

[Frank2]

Dumb forecaster (sorry, pro mets) for that Halloween comment in his discussion - you can bet he'll get an e-mail from his supervisor, because as I learned when working for the NWS, that product is disseminated worldwide over the Internet and various weather and aviation and marine circuits and some countries aren't into that nonsense the way we are in the US and might not understand what he's talking about...

Frank

P.S. I had to laugh about that Tamiami Airport "loss of power" comment - that area always loses power, even in a thundershower (lol) - here in Fort Lauderdale it's breezy and the sky overcast - Sandy is 500 miles to our east, folks, so any wind here is just pressure gradient wind, as others mentioned earlier...

[Miami Storm Tracker]

these guys are really biting on this west idea..nam and euro, gfs came west too a bit..sandy is clearly not going to be taking a very straight line through the duration of her life


BigJoeBastardi1 min
Hurricane conditions will batter fla coast from West Palm to Cape Canat times.I like ECMWF turn west and loop to within 100 miles of coast


RyanMaue16 mins
Not sold on #Sandy inner-core surviving much longer. Looking ragged, could become part of large gyre -- and orbit westward.

Yeah I have been noticing some strange vort that looks like its trying develop well west of the center. in all that convection. maybe the euro and NAM were onto something.

Aric,

who is RyanMaue16 and I know last nights NAM and if I am not mistaken the day before run showed some strange run like it decoupled or as you said started to open and do a strange loop west. What is your thinking on this.

[HurricaneFrances04]

I think Ryan Maue set up or fixed up a lot of the computer model websites we use from FSU. I'm pretty sure he works with Joe Bastardi at weatherbell.com

[StarmanHDB]

....I had to laugh about that Tamiami Airport "loss of power" comment - that area always loses power, even in a thundershower (lol) - here in Fort Lauderdale the winds are light and the sky is overcast - Sandy is 500 miles to our east, folks, so any wind here is just pressure gradient wind, as others mentioned earlier...

I have no idea what's going on at the coast, but out here in Sunrise it's overcast with a bit of wind....nothing drastic.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thanks HurricaneFrances04.

[wxman57]

anyone think they'll extend watches/warnings up the georiga coast? supposed to leave for savannah tomorrow and not sure what to do!

I wouldn't think they'll get TS warnings in Savannah. It's too far west. Wxman57 what do you think?

TS winds should remain east of Savannah, as will all the heavier squalls. Expect a windy day tomorrow, but not a lot different from behind a cold front. Northerly winds averaging 15-25 mph with higher gusts. Peak winds a little higher mid morning Saturday to mid afternoon.

I don't buy hurricane force winds along east coast of FL. Maybe average wind speeds 25-35 mph with gusts 50-55 mph or so on the beaches. Certainly nothing sustained (1 min avg.) anywhere near hurricane force. The Euro has been too far west with this system, and it hasn't done very well this season. Not inclined to believe it.

[hurricanedude]

The mid-Atlantic U.S. scenario
Landfall Monday along the mid-Atlantic coast on Monday, as predicted by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models, would likely be a billion-dollar disaster. In this scenario, Sandy would be able to bring sustained winds near hurricane force over a wide stretch of heavily populated coast, causing massive power outages, as trees still in leaf fall and take out power lines. Sandy is expected to have tropical storm-force winds that extend out more than 300 miles from the center, which will drive a much larger storm surge than its winds would ordinarily suggest. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. Fresh water flooding from heavy rains would also be a huge concern. Given the ECMWF's consistent handling of Sandy, I believe this mid-Atlantic scenario has a higher probability of occurring than the Northeast U.S. scenario. However, it is likely that the models are overdoing the strength of Sandy at landfall. The models have trouble handling the transition from tropical storm to extratropical storm in these type of situations, and I expect that the 940 mb central pressure of Sandy predicted at landfall Monday in Delaware by the ECMWF model is substantially overdone.

Jeff Masters

[crimi481]

When zoom in - I see Low spinning - just s. Abaco's
Also now can see the ULL near W. Cuba
ULL is shearing - sort of de-coupled a mid center off tho N.E.

Looks like he whole storm system (and the new spinnig Low) moving N.W ish, and mid Low center (where eye was/is) may be rotating around the surface low - south of Abaco;s

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash
"I am not a Pro"

[jaxfladude]

Just saw the track on top of the page, oh my
Prayers.....

[gatorcane]

Lots of rain and squalls about ready to move ashore South Florida.....

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

The squalls have been building in coverage over the Gulf stream the entire day now as the system is ramping up on the west side....winds and rain should pick up this evening and overnight.

Fowey Rocks off Miami had a 50K wind gust and winds are increasing over the past few hours:

10 25 1:00 pm NE 46 50 - - - - 29.70 -0.06 73.8 80.6 - - - -
10 25 12:00 pm NE 32 36 - - - - 29.73 -0.03 79.5 80.6 - - - -
10 25 11:00 am NE 33 36 - - - - 29.75 +0.01 79.9 80.8 - - -

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=FWYF1

[jlauderdal]

[stephen23]

I think that dollar amount for damage could be very conservative as well. Irene was waaay above that and really had lost its winds by the time it got into the d.c/Md/Nyc area. With loss of power on east coast so many other things add up like basement flooding due to sump pump failure. As an insurance adjuster I saw more damage from all kinds of things way more last year on east coast then I did this year in New Orleans. East coast is at an enormous larger amount of risk when it comes to storm loss evaluation.

[Frank2]

Lots of rain and squalls about ready to move ashore South Florida.....

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

The squalls have been building in coverage over the Gulf stream the entire day now as the system is ramping up on the west side....winds and rain should pick up this evening and overnight

The good good news is that the center is almost 500 due east of us now, so we're getting as they say the fringe effects but that's it - it'll not be good bicycling weather this afternoon, for sure, and rush hour traffic not good more than per usual, but at least nothing more than very breezy and rainy weather, though as you noted windy offshore (I think that C-MAN station anemometer is 123 feet above the water so proabably a large percentage higher than if someone were measure wind at the mainland dock)...

Frank

[ozonepete]

these guys are really biting on this west idea..nam and euro, gfs came west too a bit..sandy is clearly not going to be taking a very straight line through the duration of her life


BigJoeBastardi1 min
Hurricane conditions will batter fla coast from West Palm to Cape Canat times.I like ECMWF turn west and loop to within 100 miles of coast


RyanMaue16 mins
Not sold on #Sandy inner-core surviving much longer. Looking ragged, could become part of large gyre -- and orbit westward.

Forward this to the NHC. They could use a good laugh with all of the intense pressure they're under right now.