ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

[KWT]

What is really interesting me is a couple of models are ejecting energy to the NE, indeed CMC takes the whole thing to the NE and develops a hurricane from the looks of things. Not out of the question if it does strengthen enough that it feels the tug of the withdrawing upper trough over the NE States.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1100
MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

DATA FROM AN OIL PLATFORM ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SUGGEST
THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE REGENERATING VERY CLOSE TO THE
COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVEN. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP DETERMINE
IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS FORMED. IF ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED...A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPS BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND...WINDS AT
OR NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME IN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE IT REACHES LAND.

DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG

[wxman57]

I don't buy the formation of a new center off the TX coast by the Canadian/GFS. They both look bogus. Center appears to be moving inland now. It may well stay inland as it drifts slowly northward over the next few days, eventually losing what LLC it has. No sign of recon leaving yet, though the NHC just said recon will investigate it "later this afternoon".

[Dean4Storms]

Took a quick look at the 12zGFS and it looks like whatever becomes of Ex-Td7 makes landfall just north of Tampico and a piece of Energy/Vorticity shoots NE toward LA.

Looks like it meanders TD7 around eastern MX Coast and then moves it NE toward LA


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[Hammy]

based on radar the center still seems to be just offshore and moving NW-NNW still

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/altamira/rad-alta.gif

[Portastorm]

The 12z Euro op run slowly nudges it north parallel to the Mexican coastline through 96 hours ... then shunts it westbound at a much quicker pace.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[PTrackerLA]

12z CMC really blows this up and moves it south of Louisiana...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2012081712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[ROCK]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

its still off the coast.....see latest flare up to the east near the coast....LLC movement has come to a drift IMO....this is a TD again if I have ever seen one....might go straight to Helene if RECON gets there soon enough...


See Storm 2K disclaimer......


also see that LLC eddy coming off the Yucatan....interesting little guy...

[Dean4Storms]

I wonder if this might be a case where the Low keeps forming further east out over the water under the deeper convection. If so, that might give reason to CMC, GFS solutions.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 171911
AF303 0207A INVEST HDOB 10 20120817
190300 2547N 09311W 3978 07654 0432 -167 -259 343002 003 020 001 00
190330 2545N 09313W 3980 07648 0431 -165 -271 024002 003 019 000 00
190400 2543N 09315W 3980 07648 0430 -160 -285 024002 003 017 000 00
190430 2541N 09316W 3980 07651 0431 -160 -268 031002 003 017 000 00
190500 2539N 09318W 3980 07653 0432 -160 -273 034003 004 018 000 00
190530 2537N 09320W 3980 07653 0432 -162 -275 036004 005 018 000 00
190600 2535N 09321W 3979 07655 0433 -162 -278 041003 004 018 000 00
190630 2533N 09323W 3980 07649 0434 -165 -262 031003 003 018 000 00
190700 2531N 09325W 3982 07649 0434 -162 -246 027003 003 019 000 00
190730 2529N 09326W 3979 07655 0433 -165 -254 034002 003 018 000 00
190800 2527N 09328W 3980 07647 0433 -165 -230 029003 003 017 000 00
190830 2525N 09330W 3979 07652 0432 -165 -239 056003 004 017 000 00
190900 2523N 09332W 3982 07649 0432 -162 -230 083004 004 017 000 00
190930 2521N 09333W 3979 07656 0433 -165 -231 060004 005 017 000 00
191000 2519N 09335W 3980 07649 0432 -164 -236 052005 005 018 000 00
191030 2517N 09337W 3980 07653 0431 -161 -237 036005 006 016 000 00
191100 2515N 09338W 3980 07652 0431 -165 -237 034006 006 017 000 00
191130 2513N 09340W 3979 07649 0432 -165 -234 035006 006 017 000 00
191200 2511N 09342W 3979 07651 0432 -165 -230 034005 006 018 000 00
191230 2509N 09343W 3980 07649 0432 -165 -233 038004 005 018 000 00
$$
;

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 171921
AF303 0207A INVEST HDOB 11 20120817
191300 2507N 09345W 3979 07649 0432 -165 -227 064004 005 017 000 00
191330 2505N 09347W 3979 07651 0433 -165 -218 071003 004 017 000 00
191400 2504N 09349W 3979 07653 0434 -165 -217 094004 004 017 000 00
191430 2502N 09350W 3980 07653 0433 -165 -221 111005 005 017 000 00
191500 2500N 09352W 3980 07645 0430 -163 -221 102004 005 017 000 00
191530 2458N 09354W 3980 07648 0430 -160 -221 114005 005 017 000 00
191600 2456N 09355W 3979 07654 0429 -160 -222 100004 005 017 000 00
191630 2454N 09357W 3980 07652 0429 -160 -229 089005 005 017 001 00
191700 2452N 09359W 3980 07646 0431 -160 -226 089004 005 018 001 00
191730 2450N 09400W 3980 07646 0429 -162 -218 089003 003 019 000 00
191800 2448N 09402W 3979 07647 0430 -161 -215 090004 005 018 000 00
191830 2446N 09404W 3980 07648 0430 -160 -218 095005 005 019 000 00
191900 2444N 09405W 3979 07657 0432 -160 -213 107005 005 019 000 00
191930 2442N 09407W 3979 07651 0432 -160 -206 107005 006 018 000 00
192000 2440N 09409W 3979 07648 0431 -160 -213 099005 005 017 000 00
192030 2438N 09410W 3979 07653 0431 -160 -215 096005 006 017 000 00
192100 2436N 09412W 3980 07650 0430 -159 -217 095006 006 018 000 00
192130 2434N 09414W 3979 07648 0429 -157 -220 091006 007 018 000 00
192200 2432N 09415W 3980 07648 0429 -156 -221 085006 006 017 000 00
192230 2430N 09417W 3979 07647 0429 -159 -212 090006 007 019 000 00
$$
;

[ROCK]

they are airborne I am guessing....

[ROCK]

I wonder if this might be a case where the Low keeps forming further east out over the water under the deeper convection. If so, that might give reason to CMC, GFS solutions.

hard to go against the GFS on anything this year as much as I hate the GFS....

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 171931
AF303 0207A INVEST HDOB 12 20120817
192300 2428N 09419W 3979 07654 0430 -160 -207 088006 007 019 000 00
192330 2426N 09420W 3980 07647 0431 -160 -207 081006 006 019 001 00
192400 2424N 09422W 3979 07651 0429 -160 -206 073006 006 020 000 00
192430 2422N 09424W 3980 07648 0430 -160 -211 074006 006 019 000 00
192500 2420N 09425W 3980 07649 0430 -159 -211 076006 006 019 000 00
192530 2418N 09427W 3979 07654 0431 -158 -204 073006 007 021 000 00
192600 2416N 09428W 3980 07648 0431 -158 -197 086006 007 022 001 00
192630 2414N 09430W 3980 07647 0430 -165 -190 084008 009 020 002 00
192700 2412N 09432W 3980 07652 0429 -162 -195 083011 011 021 000 00
192730 2410N 09433W 3979 07644 0427 -157 -209 081010 010 018 001 00
192800 2408N 09435W 3980 07641 0427 -158 -214 078011 011 017 000 00
192830 2406N 09436W 3981 07646 0427 -159 -217 080011 011 015 000 00
192900 2403N 09438W 3979 07648 0427 -160 -232 076011 011 015 000 00
192930 2401N 09439W 3979 07651 0427 -159 -233 078013 013 014 000 00
193000 2359N 09440W 3980 07645 0427 -159 -240 091014 014 014 000 00
193030 2357N 09441W 3980 07647 0427 -160 -238 092015 015 014 000 00
193100 2354N 09443W 3979 07649 0427 -162 -247 084016 017 016 000 00
193130 2352N 09444W 3979 07648 0426 -157 -204 079017 018 017 001 00
193200 2350N 09445W 3982 07642 0426 -156 -192 086016 017 016 001 00
193230 2348N 09446W 3980 07642 0426 -158 -184 090014 015 019 000 00
$$
;

[Rgv20]

This may be another tough forecast ala Debby

[Dave]

[cycloneye]

Let's see if they find the center offshore or not.ROCK,I made your post at main recon thread turn into a new discussion one.

[Rgv20]

I don't buy the formation of a new center off the TX coast by the Canadian/GFS. They both look bogus. Center appears to be moving inland now. It may well stay inland as it drifts slowly northward over the next few days, eventually losing what LLC it has. No sign of recon leaving yet, though the NHC just said recon will investigate it "later this afternoon".

This would be the best case scenario for Central/South Texas Rainfall wise.

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 171930
97779 19294 61240 94600 72200 07011 66731 /5761
RMK AF303 0207A INVEST OB 05
SWS = 9 KTS
WITHIN 250NM OF ESTIMATED CENTER NE INBOUND
;

[ROCK]

Let's see if they find the center offshore or not.ROCK,I made your post at main recon thread turn into a new discussion one.

Ok....I think they will find a broad center...maybe wrong...that eddy that spit out over the Yucatan was a clue....I also think they will pull the trigger and make this a TD again even with the lack of well defined LLC. too close to land and the GFS sniffing a northern and stronger issue for someone...JMO


see Storm 2K disclaimer.....