ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

Interesting ...

I would have guessed the center is about half a degree further north than that ... but 78W definitely looks right.

Agree that with recon going in this early afternoon we'll likely get any upgrade at 5pm, not at 11am.

I also find it interesting that recon's plan of the day has them intercepting at 16N 77W at 21Z, but 99L is already SW of that point by a decent amount.

[Aric Dunn]

Just read today's Crown weather discussion about "possible Sandy," and there was no mention of South Florida at all. Does anyone here agree or disagree that So. Fla. probably won't be in the path (assuming the storm forms)? Thank you for your feedback.

We always have to watch anything in the neighborhood, but I'd call the probability of us being affected very low.

well a direct hit no. this likely going to be a very large system and quite likely there will be a lot of wind and some rain. Also do to the angle of approach any deviation to left early on would result in a very very close pass near SFl or over it.

[x-y-no]

Well I was wrong. We just got a renumber message!

Looks like TD18 at 11am.

(not official yet, of course)

[Caribwxgirl]

What's wrong with the satellites? All the images on the NHC are blank!

[WeatherOrKnot]

Well I for one am in SE FL and am keeping an eye on this storm and spreading the word amongst my friends to keep an eye on it as well.

150 miles to the east of us isn't enough to make us breath a sigh of relief. Trust me, we don't need any more rain here at all! Wellington (most of Wellington was under water after Isaac) is just 5 miles west of me and they CERTAINLY don't need any more rain. So yes, we are watching this storm. And hoping it stays well to the east of us.

[Aric Dunn]

its a somewhat similar setup to the halloween storm in 91 from what was grace that merged with a extra tropical low.. although it formed differently this synoptic setup does have many similarities.

[Aric Dunn]

Well I was wrong. We just got a renumber message!

Looks like TD18 at 11am.

(not official yet, of course)

its sometimes forgotten that the NHC given enough model support will upgrade a weak developing low before recon can confirm being that the threat of rapid strengthening exists and with Jamaica and Cuba only 24 to 48 hours away from impacts it is understandable.

[SouthDadeFish]

According to SSD:

22/1145 UTC 20.5N 51.8W T2.0/2.0 90L -- Atlantic

[SouthDadeFish]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al992012_al182012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210221416
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[Hurricanehink]

According to SSD:

22/1145 UTC 20.5N 51.8W T2.0/2.0 90L -- Atlantic

Wrong storm. This one is 99L. Here is SSD for this storm.

20121022 1145 14.8 77.7 T1.5/1.5 99L 99L

[x-y-no]

According to SSD:

22/1145 UTC 20.5N 51.8W T2.0/2.0 90L -- Atlantic

Wrong storm. This one is 99L. Here is SSD for this storm.

20121022 1145 14.8 77.7 T1.5/1.5 99L 99L

14.8N? Wow ... that's way off.

[SouthDadeFish]

According to SSD:

22/1145 UTC 20.5N 51.8W T2.0/2.0 90L -- Atlantic

Wrong storm. This one is 99L. Here is SSD for this storm.

20121022 1145 14.8 77.7 T1.5/1.5 99L 99L

My apologies, I copied the wrong line

Thanks for the correction. T 1.5 can still be used a justification for TD status though.

[blp]

From Dr. Masters:

See Bold for those in U.S.

Forecast for 99L
Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, through Tuesday night. This should allow for some steady development of 99L, and there is strong model support for 99L becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday. Steering currents have collapsed, and 99L should move little today. On Tuesday, a trough of low pressure to the north of 99L is expected to turn the storm to the north or north-northeast, which should put the storm in the vicinity of Jamaica on Wednesday and Eastern Cuba on Thursday. By Friday, 99L should be in the Central or Eastern Bahamas. It is unclear at this point whether or not the trough pulling 99L to the north will be strong enough to pull the storm all the way out to sea to the northeast; a very complicated steering environment will develop late this week, and it is possible that a narrow ridge of high pressure could build in over 99L and force the storm to the west-northwest, with a potential threat to the Northwestern Bahamas and U.S. East Coast by Saturday. In their 8 am EDT tropical weather outlook, NHC gave 99L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. 99L will be capable of bringing heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches, with isolated amounts of up to 15 inches in mountainous areas, to Jamaica and Haiti, Monday night through Thursday. Heavy rains will begin on Tuesday in Eastern Cuba, and spread northwards into the Central and Eastern Bahamas by Wednesday. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can be expected in the Cayman Islands and Dominican Republic, Tuesday through Thursday.

The Euro is showing this type of scenario.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2267

[Evil Jeremy]

Advisory is rolling, here we go!

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...

Forecast to go Subtropical on day 5.

Track is through Central Bahamas and then out to sea, SFL is well outside the cone right now.

[CrazyC83]

The cone can be VERY misleading in a setup like this though - after it phases to subtropical, it could be incredibly large with an RMW of over 100 nautical miles (maybe 200?).

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Deppression 18



Tropical Storm Watches
Jamacia

[lester]

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. IN
FACT...THERE IS A 50/50 CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL STRENGTHEN
BY AT LEAST 25 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BASED ON THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
FAIRLY QUICK STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BE ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A HURRICANE AS IT IS
APPROACHING JAMAICA.

[wxman57]

Well I for one am in SE FL and am keeping an eye on this storm and spreading the word amongst my friends to keep an eye on it as well.

150 miles to the east of us isn't enough to make us breath a sigh of relief. Trust me, we don't need any more rain here at all! Wellington (most of Wellington was under water after Isaac) is just 5 miles west of me and they CERTAINLY don't need any more rain. So yes, we are watching this storm. And hoping it stays well to the east of us.

Current forecast keeps it just over 300 miles east of southeast Florida on Friday, with a moderate cold front between Florida and the storm.

[blp]

I think for those in Florida the next 24 hours will be interesting. The NHC has the system going no further than 78.3W followed by a NNE movement. The models that are closest to Florida have the system going further west than the NHC. The CMC has it reaching past 80W. The Euro has it around 79.8. The GFDL 79.9 followed by reaching past 80 west of Jamaica. Right now it is moving SW at 5 let's see how far west it gets.

[wxman57]

The GFS has been the winner all season long, though being the lone model with the correct track a number of times. Let's see if it's right again in keeping the storm farther east. I wouldn't rule out a NW hook into the Mid Atlantic Coast this weekend, as per the Euro, though. The one good thing for Florida is that cooler, drier air is flowing across the state in the wake of the cold front. A developing storm southeast of Florida should keep the NNE-NE flow across Florida, and keep the front to the south and east of Florida.