ATL: SANDY - Models

[HurricaneFrances04]

According to instantweathermaps.com, if the 06Z GFS panned out, S. Florida would receive wind gusts as high as 70 mph.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... M&hour=075

[GCANE]

06Z GFS is showing a pretty good negative tilt with the front.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Blown Away]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

06z GFS, decent west shift, now only @150 miles east of WPB as it passes by.

[gatorcane]

That 06z GFS certainly has a decent west shift from the 00z... a little too close to South Florida than I would like to see. One more shift west like that certainly would not be good. The NOGAPS is very similar to the GFS and even more west.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

That 06z GFS certainly has a decent west shift from the 00z... a little too close to South Florida than I would like to see. One more shift west like that certainly would not be good.

I ran the last 7 GFS runs and each one has slowly moved small amounts west in regards to Florida, now to the extent that the 72 hour Euro position is actually east of the GFS position at 72 hours.

[Blown Away]

That 06z GFS certainly has a decent west shift from the 00z... a little too close to South Florida than I would like to see. One more shift west like that certainly would not be good. The NOGAPS is very similar to the GFS and even more west.

If 06z GFS verifies, I would think strong TS winds very likely for PB County.

[jlauderdal]

That 06z GFS certainly has a decent west shift from the 00z... a little too close to South Florida than I would like to see. One more shift west like that certainly would not be good. The NOGAPS is very similar to the GFS and even more west.

nogaps has been very consistent with its positioning of the storm, its the nogaps but hey it can be right even if for the wrong reasons

[sunnyday]

Sandy's strong point is supposed to be rain. I see mentions of ts winds possibly in So Fla but no mention of rain. Does anyone here expect rain from her? Thank you for your response. One more thing==when should the winds (rain?) likely affect so fl?

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... lLoop.html

6z GFDL shows a closer pass to Florida but also shows a much larger, expanding wind field. If this verified parts of the eastern coast of Florida would certainly experience tropical storm force winds.

[Blown Away]

@120 mile west shift in GFS from 00z to 06z.

[gatorcane]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfdl/06zgfdl500mbHGHTPMSLgfdlLoop.html

6z GFDL shows a closer pass to Florida but also shows a much larger, expanding wind field. If this verified parts of the eastern coast of Florida would certainly experience tropical storm force winds.

That GFDL run has also shifted significantly west and is close to the latest GFS and NOGAPS solution taking this east of Florida but a bit too close for comfort right now, but still just far enough east the worst would be offshore. Should see some very strong winds along the SE Coast of Florida if that track verifies especially with an expanding wind field.

[Blown Away]

12Z Bams = West shift
NHC is almost east outlier.

[Blown Away]

06z GFDL, big west shift. Cat 1 winds only 30 miles offshore as Sandy passes Palm Beach County.

[jlauderdal]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfdl/06zgfdl500mbHGHTPMSLgfdlLoop.html

6z GFDL shows a closer pass to Florida but also shows a much larger, expanding wind field. If this verified parts of the eastern coast of Florida would certainly experience tropical storm force winds.

That GFDL run has also shifted significantly west and is close to the latest GFS and NOGAPS solution taking this east of Florida but a bit too close for comfort right now, but still just far enough east the worst would be offshore. Should see some very strong winds along the SE Coast of Florida if that track verifies especially with an expanding wind field.

all those political signs blowing around SE Florida and changing positions like the candidates.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah the longer it takes to start moving north quicker the more time the trough has to flatten out and weaken. i noticed the gfs yesterday had slown way down between 120 to 144 hrs similar to the euro.. now it has at least in the short to medium range come into better agreement with the euro. timing is of course key. the slower this moves the more likely there will be some westward shifts.

Also noticed quite a bit more of the GFS ensemble members now showing a more Euro solution.

[Laplacian]

The 108-hour Navy ensemble consensus of 500-mb heights and 500-mb anomalies from 00Z last evening (valid at 12Z Saturday) has the 500-mb footprint of Sandy just to the east of Florida. Individual ensemble members are fairly consistent.

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldof ... r/f108.gif

The 108-hour Canadian ensemble consensus of 500-mb heights and 500-mb anomalies is faster and scarier...there are individual members that are too close for comfort.

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldof ... 08_CMC.gif

The 108-hour GFS consensus of 500-mb heights and 500-mb anomalies (and spaghetti on the right...see link below), valid at 12Z Saturday, is farther eastward. So, even though I'm looking at ensemble forecasts as opposed to a single model, there's still lots of uncertainty. Let's hope the GFS ensemble consensus from last evening's 00Z run is more accurate than the CMC or Navy ensemble systems.

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldof ... 08_GFS.gif

[jlauderdal]

yeah the longer it takes to start moving north quicker the more time the trough has to flatten out and weaken. i noticed the gfs yesterday had slown way down between 120 to 144 hrs similar to the euro.. now it has at least in the short to medium range come into better agreement with the euro. timing is of course key. the slower this moves the more likely there will be some westward shifts.

Also noticed quite a bit more of the GFS ensemble members now showing a more Euro solution.

add error rate and RI to the mix and the poleward movement associated with it and 150 miles to the west isn't out of the question in the modeling

[Aric Dunn]

this shows how much shift.... pretty decent ..

toggle last couple frames..

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 2&title=18

[CrazyC83]

If this hits Florida then goes up the east coast with the trough and not weakening, how many people would be impacted? Like 100 million?

[jlauderdal]

If this hits Florida then goes up the east coast with the trough and not weakening, how many people would be impacted? Like 100 million?

trough is going to tear this thing a new one