CPAC: DANIEL - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Meh, that was fun though. I would not rule further intensification out though as I said it peaked twice, when it continued intensifying.

You just never know. But on a more realistic note, he is entering much cooler waters tomorrow and that dry air will sink along with it.

[cycloneye]

Meh, that was fun though. I would not rule further intensification out though as I said it peaked twice, when it continued intensifying.

Very dry and stable air and cooler sst,s are on the doorstep. It has been remarkable that at this point is this strong,but from now is all downhill.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 080234
TCDEP4

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012

DANIEL HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE FORMING
AROUND THE TIME OF THE LAST ADVISORY. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE 77 KT AND 90 KT AT 00 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB...
RESPECTIVELY...AND THE LATEST ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS ABOUT
105 KT. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE OF ESTIMATES...THE INTENSITY IS
CONSERVATIVELY RAISED TO 90 KT.

DANIEL WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS...SO THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SUNDAY. THE NHC FORECAST ASSUMES A
GRADUAL DECAY IN WINDS...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL DURING THE FIRST
2 DAYS AND THE LGEM GUIDANCE ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE SINCE DANIEL HAS
STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10 KT. DANIEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH
BUILDS WESTWARD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH ON THIS CYCLE...LEAVING THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. ALSO...IN
DIRECT CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS DAYS...THE ECMWF MODEL IS NOW ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE OVERALL SHIFT IN THE
MODELS...THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A BIT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE THROUGH DAY 4.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 14.9N 121.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 15.3N 123.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 15.7N 125.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 16.1N 128.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 16.3N 131.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 16.5N 137.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 16.5N 144.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 16.0N 150.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Yellow Evan]

Meh, that was fun though. I would not rule further intensification out though as I said it peaked twice, when it continued intensifying.

You just never know. But on a more realistic note, he is entering much cooler waters tomorrow and that dry air will sink along with it.

Yea, well, the next question should be is this system a threat to Hawaii? I'm gonna say no, not as a TC at least.

[Kingarabian]

Meh, that was fun though. I would not rule further intensification out though as I said it peaked twice, when it continued intensifying.

You just never know. But on a more realistic note, he is entering much cooler waters tomorrow and that dry air will sink along with it.

Yea, well, the next question should be is this system a threat to Hawaii? I'm gonna say no, not as a TC at least.

They have it going SW as a weakning system. If it can somehow maintain strength (lol) then it may get pulled north.

[Kingarabian]

Edit:

Still strengthening.

[Kingarabian]

TropicalAnalystWx13,

Daniel doesn't look to be weakening at all. Past hour ADT #'s going back up.



Looks to be a low major hurricane.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Hate it when I call things too early.

[Kingarabian]

Fricking amazing all I can say considering its being swarmed with dry air.



I sincerely apologize for posting a lot of pictures.

[Yellow Evan]

Daniel looks beautiful.

[Yellow Evan]

Hate it when I call things too early.

Well, I said Daniel peaked twice already, and both times I was incorrect, so you are not the only one who called the peak too early.

[euro6208]

Based on all avalable data and satellite presentation, i would place the peak of hurricane daniel at 100 knots tied with hurricane bud for strongest this east pacific season...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Based on all avalable data and satellite presentation, i would place the peak of hurricane daniel at 100 knots tied with hurricane bud for strongest this east pacific season...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Sounds fair, but intensity is measured by pressure not winds (most of the time).

[Kingarabian]

Looks like Daniel may make it to the next advisory as a major hurricane.

UW-CIMSS has 110kts.

[Cyclenall]

Daniel remembers its 2006's self and is trying its best to copy. Everytime I think the NHC is about to lower its strength, they either leave it alone or increase it and that has happened 4 times now! It's possible it is or was a major hurricane which is unbelievable but assuming 90 knots...that's close and just think, the NHC at one point was calling for this NOT to become a hurricane! Same with Bud.

I notice Daniel is trying to get smaller as it enters this new environment. The convection around the eye has been extremely active and causing the eye to fluctuate often. It won't make it to Hawaii obviously but a basin crosser is becoming likely and the timeframe in which the NHC puts remnant low at keeps shifting at 120 hours for days now.

[Meow]

I notice Daniel is trying to get smaller as it enters this new environment. The convection around the eye has been extremely active and causing the eye to fluctuate often. It won't make it to Hawaii obviously but a basin crosser is becoming likely and the timeframe in which the NHC puts remnant low at keeps shifting at 120 hours for days now.

As Daniel entered the environment with lower SST, weak vertical wind shear, and is now losing its rainband, it may become an annular hurricane.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

I notice Daniel is trying to get smaller as it enters this new environment. The convection around the eye has been extremely active and causing the eye to fluctuate often. It won't make it to Hawaii obviously but a basin crosser is becoming likely and the timeframe in which the NHC puts remnant low at keeps shifting at 120 hours for days now.

As Daniel entered the environment with lower SST, weak vertical wind shear, and is now losing its rainband, it may become an annular hurricane.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Annular hurricanes generally have large eyes... Will see if that happens. It seems unphased with all that dry air around it.

[Cyclenall]

...DANIEL STILL STRENGTHENING...NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 080850
TCDEP4

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012

DANIEL HAS STRENGTHENED SOME MORE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD TOPS
SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE COOLED TO NEAR -75C AND THE EYE HAS BECOME
MORE DISTINCT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED
TO 100 KT...MAKING DANIEL A MAJOR HURRICANE. IT IS SOMEWHAT
SUPRISING THAT DANIEL IS STILL GAINING STRENGTH AS THE EYE HAS
CROSSED THE 26C ISOTHERM. I CAN ONLY ASSUME THAT THE HURRICANE HAS
REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS THESE LOW WATER TEMPERATURES
TYPICALLY CAUSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LESSEN...RESULTING IN A
DECREASE IN THE WIND SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND
OF THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS AND SHOWS DANIEL STEADILY WEAKENING
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER WATER
AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS
AT 0554 UTC. THIS SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THE COMPACT WIND
FIELD OF DANIEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 15.1N 122.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 15.3N 124.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 15.7N 126.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 15.9N 129.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 16.1N 132.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 16.2N 138.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 16.2N 144.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 16.0N 150.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

HOLY ****!!!!!!!! This is UNBELIEVAIBLE!

[Meow]

Daniel is now a major (category 3) hurricane.

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 080847
TCMEP4

HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
0900 UTC SUN JUL 08 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 122.4W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 90SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 122.4W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 121.7W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.3N 124.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.7N 126.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 15.9N 129.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 16.1N 132.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.2N 138.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 16.2N 144.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 16.0N 150.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 122.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Kingarabian]

Damn guys Daniel did it. Wow.