ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#1581 Postby senorpepr » Mon May 28, 2012 3:42 am

WacoWx wrote:2 named storms in May. And a good looking Beryl.

I havent read this entire thread, and this is completely off topic, but I feel likes its safe to say that everything that typically happens weather wise since last October (early winter storm up north) has occurred one month'ish earlier than we are accustomed to. Sever weather was earlier (not as many cold fronts making it far enough south), winter ended very early, and our wet season was early. I've got many examples, but this is the first time as a weather junky I have seen such a regular "early" pattern. Its almost predictable from an almanac perspective. One month is a pretty big difference and I can t help but wonder why. Yall are the only folks that I know that couldve recognized this, or would care about it.

If I can copy/paste this elsewhere to have a discussion, I would completely entertain that.

p.s. Portastorm, congrats on your recent rains. Well, earlier this month, at least. Travis has a long way to go, but there is no way we see a summer like last in our lifetime (knocking on wood).


It's interesting you say that. I was speaking to my father in Missouri yesterday and he said the exact same thing: Throughout the winter until now, the weather pattern has been about one month early.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#1582 Postby dexterlabio » Mon May 28, 2012 4:50 am

Beryl reminds me of the storm we had in the WPAC last year (Talas). It was debated to be a typhoon (equivalent of a hurricane) but its "eye" was obviously disorganized to be pronounced as such, but rather the "eye" was just a large CoC devoid of convection...


but hey, even TS-force winds can cause trouble. i hope people in NE Florida are safe.
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#1583 Postby northjaxpro » Mon May 28, 2012 5:02 am

It has been a long long night folks. Power went out just as Beryl was making landfall. I also have some downed power lines in the area as well. I measured a peak wind gust of 67 mph just around 12:30 a.m. I have measured over 3.5 inches of rain and still falling heavily. I am safe and running on the generator currently. Beryl has made her mark here in the greater Jacksonville area for sure. She really packed a wallop!
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#1584 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 28, 2012 5:46 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

...BERYL GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INLAND...WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS EVEN AS THE WINDS DECREASE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 82.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF THE
SAVANNAH RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER GEORGIA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST. BERYL
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERYL WILL
CONTINUE MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY AND MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY...AND BERYL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE JACKSONVILLE
NAVAL AIR STATION RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 33 MPH...
54 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 41 MPH...67 KM/H. A WIND GUST OF 44
MPH...70 KM/H...WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT NAVAL STATION MAYPORT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY...AND WILL ALSO SPREAD INLAND NEAR THE
CENTER OF BERYL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
TODAY...PARTICULARLY IN RAINBANDS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...2 TO 4 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS


TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

BERYL HAS BEEN WEAKENING SINCE LANDFALL...AS INDICATED BY DECREASING
SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER VELOCITIES...ESPECIALLY OVER
LAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS LIKELY OCCURRING IN RAINBANDS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS RISEN TO 997 MB. BERYL SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL
STORM IN 12 HR...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO RAINBANDS NEAR THE COAST. BERYL SHOULD WEAKEN TO A
DEPRESSION BY 24 HOURS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED
WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN
AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AND UNDERGOES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE LGEM UNTIL TRANSITION OCCURS.

BASED ON RADAR FIXES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 280/07...A LITTLE FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. BERYL SHOULD SLOW DOWN TODAY AS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH
WEAKENS AND THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD ON
TUESDAY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. ADDITIONAL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK OF BERYL AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE
NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 30.3N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 28/1800Z 30.6N 82.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/0600Z 31.2N 82.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1800Z 31.9N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0600Z 32.8N 79.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/0600Z 35.7N 73.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 01/0600Z 38.5N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/0600Z 43.0N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#1585 Postby AHS2011 » Mon May 28, 2012 6:17 am

I hope everyone's alright in Florida and Georgia, especially in Jacksonville. Looking elsewhere away from Beryl for a moment, is there potential for Chris in the Caribbean?
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#1586 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 28, 2012 6:32 am

AHS2011 wrote:I hope everyone's alright in Florida and Georgia, especially in Jacksonville. Looking elsewhere away from Beryl for a moment, is there potential for Chris in the Caribbean?


There is a thread at Talking Tropics forum about the Caribbean topic where you can make comments about it.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=112825&hilit=&p=2226841#p2226841
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Re:

#1587 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon May 28, 2012 6:37 am

northjaxpro wrote:Beryl has made her mark here in the greater Jacksonville area for sure. She really packed a wallop!


In my mind, people (media included) really need to get over the classifications. Sub-tropical, tropical, post-tropical, etc. don't really mean a hill of beans to the general public. Those terms should be reserved for internal Met discussions.

In the real world, there is very little difference in the effects of 65MPH winds and 75MPH winds specially when coupled with heavy rains.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#1588 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 28, 2012 6:52 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
800 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

...BERYL WEAKENING BUT HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4 82.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER GEORGIA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST. BERYL
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTH
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...BERYL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AND
INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO RAINBANS
OVER WATER EAST OF THE CENTER. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND 140 MILES...220 KM...TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TODAY...PARTICULARLY IN RAINBANDS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND DURING THE NEXT HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON...

GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
THE REGION OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING CAN
VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI
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Re: Re:

#1589 Postby smw1981 » Mon May 28, 2012 7:07 am

WeatherGuesser wrote:In my mind, people (media included) really need to get over the classifications. Sub-tropical, tropical, post-tropical, etc. don't really mean a hill of beans to the general public. Those terms should be reserved for internal Met discussions.

In the real world, there is very little difference in the effects of 65MPH winds and 75MPH winds specially when coupled with heavy rains.


I agree that there isn't much difference in the case of Beryl, but there is a significant difference in a TS and a Cat 3 Hurricane and if you did away with the classifications, the general public wouldn't have the categories to rely on either. Most people here (on the coast of Alabama) use the classifications (and categories) to determine if they will stay or evacuate, so they are important to have..

Beryl does look IMO to be a little faster than NHC thought, but I'm sure she will slow down and will be right on their mark soon...they are almost always right!
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#1590 Postby Peach » Mon May 28, 2012 7:29 am

ozonepete wrote:
Peach wrote:I asked earlier about the barometric pressure; the reply was large tropical storms can have Cat. 1 or more barometric pressure. Is Beryl large enough for BP to not be part of the tropical storm/hurricane analysis? In addition for insurance purposes, might this not be a nor'easter? We had one in NE Florida in March, late 1990's that did a lot of damage, electric off for over a day.

Here in mid Baker County, the wind has picked up, but no hard rain yet.


It is definitely not a nor'easter. And barometric pressure is ALWAYS part of the analysis along with all of the other factors. We will just have to wait for the NHC post-season analysis to see what the final designation is. I sure hope you stay safe there.


Thank you, but she did appear to come from the NE :D. 20 miles west/northwest of Jax, some wind, but so far only 1/4 inch of rain, the forecast is for the heavy rains this afternoon.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#1591 Postby tolakram » Mon May 28, 2012 7:45 am

Nice view of Beryl from earlier this morning.

Image
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#1592 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 28, 2012 7:45 am

12z Best Track downgrades to Tropical Depression.

AL, 02, 2012052812, , BEST, 0, 304N, 825W, 30, 1000, TD

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#1593 Postby ronjon » Mon May 28, 2012 7:54 am

Actually looks like Beryl to moving at a pretty good clip to the west. Starting to see some inflow now from the NE GOM. Will be interesting to see how far west she gets and weather the system can draw in more moisture from the GOM.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=vax&loop=yes
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#1594 Postby northjaxpro » Mon May 28, 2012 8:34 am

The center of Beryl went directly over the width of Duval county. This is the first time in documented weather history in which a tropical cyclone has done this in Jacksonville. Hurricane Dora's eyewall actually made landfall in the St. Augustine area in 1964, which is the only other time in documented history that a tropical cyclone made direct landfall from the due east in NE FL.

Beryl came ashore Jax Beach as a 70 mph strong tropical storm with gusts to over 80 mph which has been reported here at the time of landfall. That is plenty bad enough to cause major problems and indeed that is the case around Jax this morning. Strong TS or hurricane really doesn't matter to me right now when I have downed trees and power lines and power completely out here at my home in north Jacksonville. There is not much of a difference between a 70 mph TS or 75-80 mph Cat 1 hurricane. The effects will be the same folks.

My family and I are safe most importantly and I will be on and off the blog today as I have quite a bit to handle around the house as you can imagine.

Checked the rain gauge and I can add another 1.35 inches to what was accumulated up to 6:30 this morning. Total rain now near 6 inches at my location. I am going to end up with an impressive rain total when this event finally ends. There is still a lot of rain from feederbands on the backside of Beryl that still has to rotate through this area. There is also the threat of small scale tornadoes with landfalling tropical cyclones that we have to watch for today as well, along with flooding in parts of the city. No doubt this should go a long ways to eliminate the drought in NE FL. For that, I am extremely thankful. Although it was bad timing for Beryl to come through here on the Memorial Day weekend, I always keep in my mind that this situation could have been much worse than it is now. If this was July instead of May, it would have been possibly a much different story.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Mon May 28, 2012 8:46 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#1595 Postby jdray » Mon May 28, 2012 8:42 am

Hard to tell exact gusts here without my Lacrosse working properly (grr....)

I will say this, a summer thunderstorm doesn't take a few boards from my privacy fence. No real damage in my area at least that I can see, but definitely stronger than a summer thunderstorm.

JEA reported 26000+ houses without power.
Clay Electric 500-1000 maybe (no exact numbers, going off of outage map)
FPL has a decent number as well.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#1596 Postby Sanibel » Mon May 28, 2012 8:44 am

Pretty strange to see a core structure and track like that at this time of the year. It looks like a weak pre-season storm unless you're in it.

Crazy to see a weak lower deck entrained to a cyclone to our north at this time of year.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#1597 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon May 28, 2012 8:51 am

ronjon wrote:Actually looks like Beryl to moving at a pretty good clip to the west. Starting to see some inflow now from the NE GOM. Will be interesting to see how far west she gets and weather the system can draw in more moisture from the GOM.



Would be more interesting to see it get sucked SW into the Gulf.
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#1598 Postby yzerfan » Mon May 28, 2012 9:26 am

I found a link on another board to some light flooding and minor damage pictures:

http://myspringfield.org/forum/viewtopi ... 036#p15036
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#1599 Postby Stephanie » Mon May 28, 2012 9:26 am

Sanibel wrote:Pretty strange to see a core structure and track like that at this time of the year. It looks like a weak pre-season storm unless you're in it.

Crazy to see a weak lower deck entrained to a cyclone to our north at this time of year.


Everything is pretty strange so far.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#1600 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 28, 2012 9:50 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

...BERYL SOAKING PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA...MORE
RAIN TO COME...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 82.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WNW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA INCLUDING PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF RECENTLY DOWNGRADED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TODAY AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY OVER WATER EAST FO THE CENTER. A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE OVER
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TODAY...PARTICULARLY
IN RAINBANDS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A SUBSIDING STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE IS STILL CAUSING NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND
DURING THE NEXT HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON...

GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...1 TO 2 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI



TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

BERYL HAS BEEN MOVING OVER LAND FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DROPPED
BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS
COULD STILL OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS PRIMARILY OVER WATER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KNOTS. BERYL SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE MOVING OVER LAND. ONCE OVER
OPEN WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS...THE
CYCLONE COULD RESTRENGTHEN A LITTLE...BUT MOST LIKELY IT WILL LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND LATTER BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5
KNOTS. BERYL IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH FOR THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC,
THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL STEER BERYL NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH IN FACT IS VERY TIGHLY PACKED THIS
MORNING.

AT THIS POINT...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING BERYL IS VERY
HEAVY RAINS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 30.5N 82.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 31.0N 83.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/1200Z 31.5N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0000Z 32.5N 81.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/1200Z 33.5N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1200Z 36.5N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 01/1200Z 40.0N 58.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1200Z 44.5N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI
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