HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:wxman57 wrote:Nothing on the recon reports indicates any well-defined center. They're hunting around about 120 miles south of where the center of the broad circulation might be right now. All evidence points to no upgrade today. Maybe not tomorrow, either.
Note that the plane has yet to fly into any squalls across the Lesser Antilles where stronger SE-S winds are located. I'm sure they'll find some 30-35 kt winds over there.
Oh, come on. Probably not 5, but at 11 I'd give a 60% chance. But tomorrow it is almost guaranteed that it will form.
Guaranteed? Nope. And there won't be anything new in the observations by this evening, unless there's a big burst of convection around 62-63W north of 15N - which probably won't occur due to continued strong SW wind shear. Given that the NHC can often be quite lenient with its upgrades, it's possible it could become a TD/TS on Saturday. But it needs to have a much better-defined LLC and not a broad low pressure area several hundred miles across. I'm not so sure wind shear will drop off enough tomorrow for that to happen.
Side-note: Plane is flying SE of ST Lucia now finding SSE wind 40kts at FL, just as expected. But just a strong disturbance and not a TS yet.