WPAC: GUCHOL - Post-Tropical

[RobWESTPACWX]

Ya Dexter agreed, there was a big blow up around the center today. And still some decent outflow, this system at this point is really a teaser, It shows development then fades out, and repeated the next day. Good news though is it is staying weak. Fingers crossed.

[cycloneye]

From JMA.

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 05N 150E ALMOST STATIONARY

[euro6208]

REMAINS MEDIUM

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.2N
150.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 150.0E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD, POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A
STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST. A 092333Z METOP-A IMAGE ALSO INDICATES A BROAD LLCC
WITH WEAK, FRAGMENTED BANDING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CHUUK
INDICATE SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS, SLP NEAR 1008 MB
AND 24-HOUR SLP FALLS OF 1 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD,
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE LLCC WITH WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW
DESPITE A TUTT CELL POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE SLOWLY-
DEVELOPING LLCC AND MODEL DEVELOPMENT AFTER TAU 48, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Good call on keeping it Medium, not as promising as before but still there...

[senorpepr]

WWJP25 RJTD 101800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 101800.
WARNING VALID 111800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 996 HPA
AT 52N 169E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 41N 142E 47N 153E
55N 163E 60N 165E 60N 180E 40N 180E 31N 164E 25N 140E 26N 130E 29N
130E 37N 146E 41N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 996 HPA AT 38N 146E ENE 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 07N 148E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 58N 142E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 41N 172E EAST 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 29N 127E TO 30N 140E 34N 153E 32N 166E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[cycloneye]

Panoramic view of TD 90W.



Uploaded with imageshack.us

[ManilaTC]

407
TPPN10 PGTW 110020

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (W OF CHUUK)

B. 10/2332Z

C. 8.6N

D. 146.9E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS <<-- EXPECT ANOTHER TCFA SOON, 25KTS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .25 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING DT OF 1.0. MET IS 1.5 INDICATING RAPID PATTERN
EVOLUTION. PT IS 1.0. DBO MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades to TD

WTPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 8.4N 146.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.4N 146.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 9.1N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 9.7N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 10.1N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 10.7N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 11.9N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.4N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 20.4N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 8.6N 146.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED JUST NORTH OF
WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z,
112100Z AND 120300Z. //
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

woah that was fast...and it seems we have another recurve storm right there..

[cycloneye]

woah that was fast...and it seems we have another recurve storm right there..

As you said earlier in the thread, the Euro has not shown anything strong comming from this,but I think they are going with GFS as it is bullish.

[cycloneye]

JMA 00:00z warning:

WTPQ20 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110000UTC 08.2N 146.5E POOR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1008HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 120000UTC 09.7N 143.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[dexterlabio]

As you said earlier in the thread, the Euro has not shown anything strong comming from 90W,but I think they are going with GFS as it is bullish.

things change a bit for me though...we have a TD right now, and if this grows more than expected earlier, I won't be surprised anymore. I think the Euro keeps it as a minimal TC because the environment (shear) along the projected path is not quite friendly to support quick consolidation...with the exception of high SST's, I guess...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.

[cycloneye]

Here is the prognostic reasoning from JTWC:

WDPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED JUST NORTH OF
WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED 6-HOUR
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE BANDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED AND WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THE LATEST OF WHICH A 102205Z SSMIS,
CAPTURED THE RAPID GROWTH OF CONVECTION OVER A PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED
LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TD 05W HAS TRACKED
CLOSER AND IS NOW 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED
OVER THE CYCLONE AS IT REESTABLISHED AN OUTFLOW LINK WITH A TUTT CELL
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TD IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN AND ESTABLISHES
THE FORECAST REASONING FOR THE SYSTEM.
B. TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STEERING RIDGE. AFTER TAU 48, IT WILL MOVE ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION INTO A BREAK IN THE STR, CAUSED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. DURING THIS TIME FRAME, THE SYSTEM
WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, IN ADDITION
TO THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SST (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS),
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH TYPHOON
INTENSITY BY TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR TD 05W TO UNDERGO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS IT TRACKS OVER VERY WARM SST ENHANCED BY THE
WARM KURUSHIO CURRENT AND IMPROVING RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE
FRONT SLOPE OF THE ADVANCING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MENTIONED IN PARA
3.B. ADDITIONALLY, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE LIMITED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH WBAR, AS THE SOLE LEFT OUTLIER. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TO THE RIGHT TO
OFFSET WBAR. IN VIEW OF THE RELATIVELY TIGHT MODEL AGREEMENT, THE
SIMPLICITY OF THE STEERING PATTERN, AND THE ESTABLISHED STORM MOTION,
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 72.
HOWEVER, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS AFTER TAU 72 IS
POOR. //
NNNN

[Infdidoll]

Hmm. Euro still not quite so bullish on this storm. I guess we can't discount it, yet. I've seen stranger things happen in the West Pac. Last night, it suddenly developed some convection. If it moves slowly enough and the pockets of sheer ahead of it dissipate, it might have a chance. Right now, it could be chugging ahead into some hostile territory.

In any case, we're ready for it. The last storm reminded everyone here to get ready for typhoon season and we really didn't get any affects from that last storm whatsoever.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Wow, things progressing really quickly this morning. Amazing little system really that's been keeping us all on our toes!

That's a very bullish forecast from JTWC though given the lack of development amoungst the main models. I'd be very impressed if "Guchol-to-be" ramps up as JTWC are suggesting!

[ManilaTC]

Not much confidence in the track forecast after 72h though. Models maybe having difficulty picking FIVE up due to its small size.

[dexterlabio]

hmm i remember euro was not so bullish with Mawar in the first few runs but the storm picked up strength and the succeeding runs adjusted until it became a strong typhoon. we'll see with this one.

[euro6208]

amazing little storm!




000
WTPQ31 PGUM 110222
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP052012
1215 PM CHST MON JUN 11 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W FORMS IN WESTERN CHUUK STATE...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP
STATE.

AT 1000 AM CHST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 05W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.4 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 146.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT

370 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
420 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
480 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI AND
580 MILES EAST OF YAP.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. TD 05W
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A SLIGHT SLOWING IN
FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A NORMAL CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE REACHING TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM POSITION...8.4 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
146.5 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY THIS EVENING AT 800 PM CHST.

$$

EDSON

[euro6208]

incredible amount of heat content that *GUCHOL* will be traversing...

From JTWC:

C. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR TD 05W TO UNDERGO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS IT TRACKS OVER VERY WARM SST ENHANCED BY THE
WARM KURUSHIO CURRENT AND IMPROVING RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE
FRONT SLOPE OF THE ADVANCING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MENTIONED IN PARA
3.B. ADDITIONALLY, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

[RobWESTPACWX]

I been scratching my head on this as well with JTWC, very strong. They probally want to keep it high and then work down. Better than low working up right? Sounds like a joke but honestly after working with them this is very likely what there doing.

The track on the other hand I agree with. That high to the north should keep it down until it hits the SW Monsoon. Still a young and weak storm though so whos to say! ?