CPAC: DANIEL - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

18z model run.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 155
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2N 99.7W TO 12.5N 105.9W WITHIN THE
NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 031630Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 100.6W.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0N
100.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 100.6W, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM SOUTH
OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS STEADILY DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN THE VICINITY OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK INTO AN AREA OF LOWER, MORE FAVORABLE VWS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO
THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK VWS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[Extratropical94]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/

Here it says: EP042012 - Tropical Depression INVEST

[cycloneye]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/

Here it says: EP042012 - Tropical Depression INVEST

They pulled the trigger early without waiting for ATCF/NHC.

[cycloneye]

Up to 90%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 3 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

[Yellow Evan]

So, it looks like TD Five-E is here.

[vbhoutex]

So, it looks like TD Five-E is here.

What are you basing this statement on? Can you back it up?

[Kingarabian]

So, it looks like TD Five-E is here.

What are you basing this statement on? Can you back it up?

Probably this:

[Kingarabian]

Annnnd Dvorak says depression.

03/2345 UTC 10.5N 103.6W T2.0/2.0 96E -- East Pacific

NHC usually follows suit so we may see Five-E @ the 11:PM advisory.

[MGC]

Looks like 96E is knocking on the depression door.....I bet the NHC upgrades soon.....MGC

Of course the above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[Yellow Evan]

So, it looks like TD Five-E is here.

What are you basing this statement on? Can you back it up?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/

[cycloneye]

It looks like NHC will not upgrade 96E before the 8 PM Pacific time as no renumber has occured despite the 2.0 dvorak classification. For sure,they have other data that does not support an upgrade at this time.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

So, it looks like TD Five-E is here.

Four-E*

[ROCK]

looks good with that blow up over the COC.....nice banding features....best looking invest I have seen this year...... but I am sure the NHC has its reasons. IMO they pull the trigger if a nice CDO happens with this lastest convection.

[vbhoutex]

So, it looks like TD Five-E is here.

What are you basing this statement on? Can you back it up?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/

That does not support your statement. NHC is the only agency that makes that call.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Nice CDO building.

[Yellow Evan]

Won't be surprised to see a TD tomorrow morning when I wake up.

[ROCK]

IMO, the T numbers are going to be enough in the morning to jump straight to a TS.....as I stated earlier, you have a nice CDO now and I am sure pressures are falling like a rock.

so we might have another one jumping past the TD phase....JMO

[Kingarabian]

Yeah haha it looks real nice.

[Extratropical94]

Remains at 90%

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUE TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.