WPAC: VICENTE - Post-Tropical

[RobWESTPACWX]

This is the latest from PAGASA on this area,

I also saw a report of a river over flowing its banks and causing 50 to evacuate, nothing more than that though.


WEATHER ADVISORY

Weather Advisory No. 1
For: Active Low Pressure Area (ALPA) and Southwest Monsoon
Issued at: 10:30 AM, 19 July 2012
At 8 a.m. today, the Active Low Pressure Area (ALPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 570 km East of Casiguran, Aurora (16.5°N, 128.2°E).
This weather disturbance and the southwest monsoon will bring scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms in Luzon and Visayas becoming widespread rains which may trigger flashfloods and landslides over Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Aurora, Quezon, Bicol Region and Samar Provinces.

The next update will be incorporated in the Public Weather Forecast at 5:00 PM today while the next advisory will be issued at 11:00 am tomorrow.

[Meow]

Still no gale warning on this TD.



WWJP25 RJTD 191200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 191200.
...
SUMMARY.
...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 17N 127E NW SLOWLY.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[euro6208]

very deep convection over luzon...

[dhoeze]

What happened?



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Typhoon10]

Referencing HKO it appears after 48hrs this really starts to develop while in the SCS. What are the other models saying?

[Meow]

There is a hope now.



TD
Issued at 01:15 UTC, 20 July 2012

<Analyses at 20/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N16°35'(16.6°)
E124°35'(124.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 21/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°40'(18.7°)
E122°10'(122.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[phwxenthusiast]

Circulation is exposed... Looks like moderate to strong northerly shear is disrupting the development... But the location and the timing looks to be spot on.. Expect PAGASA to follow suit and upgrade this to a depression...

[Meow]

I wonder why tropical cyclones off the east coast of the Philippines were all naked this year.

[RobWESTPACWX]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSgNAbLu_l0&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

Here is my latest video outlook on this area. I hope its helpful

[mrbagyo]

the shear from the north east is hampering its development

[Meow]

TD
Issued at 07:10 UTC, 20 July 2012

<Analyses at 20/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N17°20'(17.3°)
E123°30'(123.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 21/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°30'(18.5°)
E121°30'(121.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[ManilaTC]

TCFA...

WTPN21 PGTW 200800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.9N 124.6E TO 19.7N 119.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY
AT 200600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N
124.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.8N
125.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 124.3E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) EAST OF NORTHERN LUZON. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT
FLOW IS FUELING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THIS DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW SUPERIMPOSED OVER THE LLCC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THIS
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL AND THE LLCC IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SLOW CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A
PERIOD OF MORE RAPID DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. BASED
ON THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-DEVELOPED LLCC AND ANTICIPATED IMPROVEMENT
IN THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210800Z.//

[dexterlabio]

PAGASA upgrades it into a tropical depression named "Ferdie".

[Meow]

PAGASA upgrades it into a tropical depression named "Ferdie".

And they forgot to update their tropical cyclone page.

[Meow]

TD
Issued at 13:25 UTC, 20 July 2012

<Analyses at 20/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N17°50'(17.8°)
E122°55'(122.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 21/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°00'(19.0°)
E119°55'(119.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[euro6208]

TXPQ24 KNES 201531
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)

B. 20/1432Z

C. 19.6N

D. 122.3E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THERE ARE POTENTIAL OTHER CENTERS WITH 92W MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO KNOW EXACTLY WHERE THE LLC WANTS TO SETUP. CONVECTION WRAPS
JUST OVER .2 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. PT AND MT AGREE.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[Meow]

Note: It is also 09W now.



TD
Issued at 19:20 UTC, 20 July 2012

<Analyses at 20/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N19°10'(19.2°)
E121°55'(121.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 21/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°35'(19.6°)
E118°20'(118.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[Meow]

WTPN31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z JUL 12//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 18.3N 121.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 121.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.9N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.3N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.8N 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.1N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 20.5N 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.5N 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.3N 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 120.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM NORTH
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 9 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
200751Z JUL 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 200800).
//
NNNN

[Meow]

TD
Issued at 01:30 UTC, 21 July 2012

<Analyses at 21/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N19°20'(19.3°)
E119°30'(119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 22/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°20'(20.3°)
E117°05'(117.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[dexterlabio]

This TD is dumping some heavy rains across Luzon, becoming widespread on the western and southern portions. Looking on the satellite imagery, it looks like the storm is sheared to the south and the center is almost devoid of deep convection.