ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[vbhoutex]

Yeah I think the islands need to pay close attention to this one. I don't see how it turns northward though given the huge ridge in place...this seems like a classic straight shooter setup...

If the models are right we will have our first classic CV storm of the season and the Islands unfortunately will be first in line for this one. I don't see anything yet that will pull this further N than what the models are currently showing. Will be watching this one closely.

[PTrackerLA]

Wow didn't expect this so soon. Will have to keep a close eye on it but the Euro sure isn't too impressed.

[cycloneye]

Is slowly organizing.

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[AHS2011]

does this look like more of a gulf storm or more of an east coast storm? or is it too premature to answer this question?

[Aric Dunn]

Ill be leaving for PR on wed looks like I might have randomly picked the right time to go...

[cycloneye]

Ill be leaving for PR on wed looks like I might have randomly picked the right time to go...

Wow Aric,perfect timing to come but will PR be in the bullseye is the big question as there is plenty of time to sort that out.

[cycloneye]

GFS Ensemble Members:

[cycloneye]

Here is Dr Jeff Masters discussion of 99L.

The first African tropical wave of 2012 with a potential to develop is Invest 99L, located in the Eastern Atlantic near 9°N 36°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa. Visible satellite loops show a large area of the surrounding atmosphere has a pronounced counter-clockwise spin, though there is no surface circulation. The disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity is pretty sparse, but appears to be slowly increasing. Water vapor satellite loops show that 99L has a reasonably moist environment, and the latest Saharan air layer analysis shows that the dry air from the Sahara lies well to the north of 99L. WInd shear over the disturbance is a light 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is well above the 26.5°C (80°F) threshold typically needed to allow formation of a tropical depression.

Forecast for 99L

Wind shear is expected to remain light for the next five days, and ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. The disturbance is at 9°N, which is close enough to the Equator that the storm will have some difficultly getting spinning. Most of the models are showing some slow development of 99L, with the storm reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday, August 3. NHC gave 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. I expect the storm will have trouble with dry air at times this week as it crosses the Atlantic, but I give 99L a 50% chance of eventually developing into Tropical Storm Ernesto sometime in the next ten days. Residents and visitors to the Lesser Antilles Islands should anticipate heavy rains and strong winds from 99L beginning to affect the islands as early as Friday night. The long-range fate of 99L is uncertain, but a trough of low pressure is expected to be present over the Eastern U.S. early next week, which would be capable of turning 99L more to the northwest.

[WeatherCat]

Sounds like conditions might evolve that ultimately leave the Gulf open for business ... following is an excerpt from Jeffrey Lindner's morning discussion (Harris County, TX Flood Control District 07/30/12).

"Toward the end of the week, the ridge over the plains will retrograde westward and yet another weakness in the height field aloft develops over LA and E TX (so common this summer). Will need to bring rain chances back into the forecast starting Saturday. Sunday looks to possibly see some fairly decent coverage with deeper moisture advecting into the area and ridging backing to the west. It should be noted that this pattern places the Gulf coast at the mercy of any possible tropical waves/systems in the Atlantic hurricane pipeline with little to no blocking ridging for protection.

Tropics:
99L:

An area of low pressure has developed 800 miles SW of the Cape Verde Islands. This system is moving westward at 10-15mph with scattered thunderstorms. Global forecast models all suggest some degree of development with this system with the CMC being the most aggressive. Conditions across the middle of the deep tropical Atlantic appear favorable for slow development. While most of the models do show some development, most cap the system near tropical storm intensity. With deep layer high pressure north of 99L over the central Atlantic, the westward motion should continue for the next several days. "

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

Ill be leaving for PR on wed looks like I might have randomly picked the right time to go...

Wow Aric,perfect timing to come but will PR be in the bullseye is the big question as there is plenty of time to sort that out.

yeah, either way though PR should get some interesting weather.

[adam0983]

I will be around Puerto Rico in 10 days should Invest 99L be gone by then.

[JPmia]

It will be interesting to see how the GFS versus the Euro work out on this one considering the difficulty the EURO had with TS Debby. 00z Euro is not calling for development on this one, but the 00z, 06z, 12z GFS is, which one will be right is the big question this afternoon.

[wxman57]

I will be around Puerto Rico in 10 days should Invest 99L be gone by then.

Looks like it should be passing west of PR in around 8 days (Aug. 5th) or so.

[gatorcane]

Is slowly organizing.

Yes I agree with that, circulation is elongated but its got a good plume of moisture to the west it is sucking in and convection is gradually building near the center of the circulation.

It's interesting the Canadian model has this missing the islands to the NE. It's certainly developing a more bonafide system well before it would reach the longitude of the leewards and that solution is an outlier right now.

It can't be ruled though so we will see how the models converge over the next several days. There have been plenty of times systems in this area at this low of lattitude look like a shoe-in Leewards hit only to pass well NE of the islands, mostly because they ramped up into hurricanes or tropical storms well before reaching the Leewards.

[hurricanes1234]

This is the first Cape-Verde tropical wave of the season. After a silent July, it's nice to finally see some activity, providing it doesn't affect land. Hopefully, this isn't just another poof.

[Riptide]

It will be interesting to see how the GFS versus the Euro work out on this one considering the difficulty the EURO had with TS Debby. 00z Euro is not calling for development on this one, but the 00z, 06z, 12z GFS is, which one will be right is the big question this afternoon.

You can't be serious, this will develop into a tropical depression at some time in the next 10 days; there are not enough negative factors for complete dissipation.

[ConvergenceZone]

Sounds like conditions might evolve that ultimately leave the Gulf open for business ... following is an excerpt from Jeffrey Lindner's morning discussion (Harris County, TX Flood Control District 07/30/12).

I agree with this...No blocking ridge blocking the gulf like last season..

[SeminoleWind]

I will be around Puerto Rico in 10 days should Invest 99L be gone by then.

Looks like it should be passing west of PR in around 8 days (Aug. 5th) or so.

I guess the real question is, will anything be left of it by then and will shear be a limiting factor by that time?

[JPmia]

It will be interesting to see how the GFS versus the Euro work out on this one considering the difficulty the EURO had with TS Debby. 00z Euro is not calling for development on this one, but the 00z, 06z, 12z GFS is, which one will be right is the big question this afternoon.

You can't be serious, this will develop into a tropical depression at some time in the next 10 days; there are not enough negative factors for complete dissipation.

I don't disagree, but the 00z Euro didn't show development.. let's see what the 12z Euro will show.