CPAC: DANIEL - Post-Tropical

[Cyclenall]

so we might have another one jumping past the TD phase....JMO

Change the might with a will and I agree. Wouldn't it be something if that was a CDO building right there.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUE TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

Left at 90%? I was hoping for an explanation as to why this isn't a medium strength TS already officially.

[Kingarabian]

ROCK is correct.

04/0545 UTC 12.0N 105.4W T2.5/2.5 96E -- East Pacific

Dvorak says tropical storm.

Though shear has hurt some of its banding.

Ooh and the Navy.mil site has given Invest 96E a TD number: 04E ...

As the case with most EPac storms, this is normal for the NHC to do this. Verry conservative. We may see an upgrade @ 5AM IMO.

[Kingarabian]

Ladies and Gentlmen please welcome 04E:
EP, 04, 2012070406, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1051W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 200, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FOUR, M,

[Extratropical94]

Does anyone know anything about the recent infrequent use of renumber files in the ATCF. They seem to put up the storm files (like EP042012) directly instead of renumbering the invests.

[Extratropical94]

First advisory package:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 AM PDT WED JUL 04 2012

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...NO THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 105.5W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
0900 UTC WED JUL 04 2012

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 105.5W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 105.5W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 105.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.0N 106.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.8N 108.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.4N 110.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.7N 112.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.0N 116.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 15.2N 121.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 15.8N 125.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 105.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 AM PDT WED JUL 04 2012

GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED A SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED
CENTER AND ENOUGH ORGANIZATION OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE ASCAT
DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.

SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/10 KT. THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING ON THIS GENERAL HEADING AND SPEED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND
BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS AND A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS...HOWEVER MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST DURING MOST OF THAT TIME. AS A RESULT...ONLY GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. SOME
WEAKENING IS SHOWN BY DAY 5 AS THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
COOLER WATERS BY THAT TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 12.3N 105.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 13.0N 106.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 13.8N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 14.4N 110.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 14.7N 112.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 15.0N 116.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 15.2N 121.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 15.8N 125.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[KWT]

Well there is the first offical advisory for this system, I think slow development is likely with this one. The ECM does in the end get a decent system out of this, tohugh it gets over-shadowed by a much stronger system still.

[cycloneye]

12z Best TRack still has it as TD.

EP, 04, 2012070412, , BEST, 0, 128N, 1065W, 30, 1006, TD

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Yellow Evan]

NHC being conservative here. Looks like a VERY boring system.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 041433
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 AM PDT WED JUL 04 2012

THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS THE
CONVECTION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. NIGHTTIME VISIBLE AND FIRST DAYLIGHT VISIBLE
IMAGERY INDICATE A FEW SMALL SWIRLS HAVE POPPED OUT THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS...WHICH HAS MADE LOCATING THE
CENTER SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION IS ASSUMED TO BE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL
SWIRLS AND JUST INSIDE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CIRRUS CLOUD
SHIELD...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. ALTHOUGH
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT BASED
ON THE RAGGED APPEARANCE OF THE OVERALL CLOUD SIGNATURE...PLUS A
T2.0/30 KT UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13 KT...BASED ON CONTINUITY WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE DEEPER EASTWARD
STEERING FLOW OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO ITS
NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND LIES CLOSE TO
THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN.

THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. AFTER
THAT...HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE SHEAR TO
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. IN FACT...THE GFS...ECWMF...AND HWRF MODELS
DEVELOP A RATHER ROBUST TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE 200 MB LEVEL
BY 72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION
STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE AT THAT TIME BASED UPON THESE MODEL
DEPICTIONS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOVING OVER SUB-25C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING
DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 13.1N 107.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 13.8N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 14.4N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 14.9N 112.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 15.0N 114.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 15.1N 118.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 15.2N 122.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 15.9N 127.4W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Yellow Evan]

Is the RBt out yet?

[cycloneye]

Is the RBt out yet?

Remains as TD on 18z Best Track.

EP, 04, 2012070418, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1073W, 30, 1005, TD

[Kingarabian]

It's finally looking better though.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 042037
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 PM PDT WED JUL 04 2012

THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SIGNS NOW THAT THE NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS
BEGINNING TO ABATE AS MODEST CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BEGUN TO
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION
ALSO HAVING DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
STILL DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE...BUT A FORTUITOUS 1628Z ASCAT
OVERPASS INDICATED THE CENTER OF THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION WAS
LOCATED VERY NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND T2.4/34 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT BASED ON THE RECENT ASCAT DATA THAT ONLY
SHOWED 25-KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. EVEN ALLOWING FOR THE
LOW BIAS OF ASCAT...THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/11 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN MORE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING TRACK SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS SITUATED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TV15.

MODERATE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT HAS
BEEN HINDERING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS FORECAST
BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...AND
AFTER 24 HOURS THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10 KT. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS
WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM SSTS AND IN MOIST MID-LEVEL
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SUB-25C SSTS AND INTO A MORE STABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND REMAINS ABOVE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
THE HWRF AND GFS MODELS...WHICH INDICATE A HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 13.5N 107.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 14.0N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 14.5N 111.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 14.8N 113.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 14.9N 115.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 15.0N 119.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 15.3N 123.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 16.1N 128.4W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Yellow Evan]

Won't be surprised to see a TS by 3z.

[Kingarabian]

ADT #'s @ 3.0

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track remains at TD status.

EP, 04, 2012070500, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1083W, 30, 1005, TD

[Kingarabian]

Yeah...

ADT numbers @ 3.0

TDP Back to 2.5/2.5

Are SAB numbers private?

[Kingarabian]

Seriously missing a CDO.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT WED JUL 04 2012

THERE STILL HAVE NOT BEEN ANY FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES TO THE STRUCTURE
OF THE DEPRESSION. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS LARGE AND WELL
DEFINED...BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ONLY LOOSELY ORGANIZED. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS INCREASING
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...WHILE CONFLUENCE OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE MAY BE LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE INTENSITY IS BEING KEPT AT 30 KT SINCE
THERE HAS BEEN NO DEFINITIVE EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT THE SYSTEM AS A
TROPICAL STORM.

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO...AND THE
CURRENT MOTION IS 290/10 KT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A FAIRLY CONSTANT SPEED THROUGH DAY 5.
LITTLE CHANGE WAS REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST...AND
THE NEW ONE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY PROHIBITIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING...THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A ZONE OF
UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENCE COULD CONTINUE NEAR THE CYCLONE FOR A COUPLE
MORE DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST THEREFORE ONLY SHOWS GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY DAY 3. THIS SCENARIO IS
HIGHER THAN THAT SHOWN BY THE STANDARD INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IS
ONLY ECLIPSED BY THE VERSION OF THE HWRF THAT USES THE ECMWF AS ITS
BACKGROUND. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND
INTO A DRIER...MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AFTER DAY 3...AND WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED DURING THAT PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 13.6N 108.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 14.0N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 14.5N 112.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 14.9N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 15.1N 116.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 15.2N 121.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 15.5N 125.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 16.0N 130.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Kingarabian]

Looking better and better.