ATL: ISAAC - Models

[HurricaneWarning92]

Mother nature wants to play games with us according to the models...

[ROCK]

KWT...took the words out of my mouth....its does sniff like an Andrew set-up...God forbid that happens....now if this was more into late Sept then maybe I could buy the recurve..not biting on it yet!!

[KWT]

that 12z ECM has the sniff of...Andrew...about it...

Yes noted, but thankfully its 240 hours from now. I would agree the west shifts are probably not done yet. Will be interesting to see if the GFS also starts showing the west bend at the end in subsequent runs.

Yeah, less of a bend west but thats only due to the fact that its already near 25-30N by the time it starts, if its down at 15-20N like the ECM, then we may have issues.

I've been hearing the long range ECM 11-15 days has been suggesting positive heights over the NE States over that period...which would suggest that IF it is not recurving by 240hrs, its probably not going to at all...

[cycloneye]

ROCK,anything from the Navy model?

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


the NOGAPS has been notorious this year for just blasting systems off to the NW.....12Z no different....takes about 2 days for the NOGAPS to come around to the GFS and EURO.....

[KWT]

KWT...took the words out of my mouth....its does sniff like an Andrew set-up...God forbid that happens....now if this was more into late Sept then maybe I could buy the recurve..not biting on it yet!!

Also pretty similar to Frances as well, very similar time of year, that time as well the models orginally recurved the system to start with.

I think the west trend still has some distance to go before we come close to the mark, but the 12z ECM run is the very first run where I've seen a direct suggestion of a US threat. No way any system is escaping that building ridge over the NE states.

Still as Gatorcane has said, a very long way to go yet!!

[sunnyday]

Will someone please explain the "Andrew set up?" What is similar? Also, what is similar to Frances?
Thank you.
We would rather not go through those 2 again.

[KWT]

The system heads west, then gets lifted out like a recurver (IE heading out to sea) but the door gets shut by a developing ridge which forces the system back westwards, thats what happened with Andrew and Frances, and thats what the 12z ECM also does tonight.

[sunnyday]

Thank you for explaining that, KWT, but this far out, do you find that situation more likely or unlikely?

[KWT]

Its possible. I'd say that the GFS solution is more likely right now, but if this one stays weaker and keeps going west, then the ECM/more westerly solution becomes increasingly possible.

[KWT]

GFS at 72hrs, trucking westwards and slowly strengthening, I think it might be a bit fast though with that strengthening.

[Riptide]

GFS at 72hrs, trucking westwards and slowly strengthening, I think it might be a bit fast though with that strengthening.

Usually once these waves get going; they strengthen quite quickly this time of year. 500mb ridging looks more pronounced on the 18z GFS.

[KWT]

The problem is Riptide it has abit of a messy looking structure, IE there are competing circulations at the moment.

Anyway I do wonder whether Helene will play a part in the eventual outcome, as the models are suggesting the energy/Helene heads back into the Gulf and keeps the weakness open, that may well eventually help to keep the weakness open and allow this to recurve through, but thats a long way away yet and it may make no difference at all.

Anyway 94L heading a little north of west at 120hrs, still below 15N:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal120.gif

[Hurricane Andrew]

^That is the 12z GFS.

[Riptide]

The problem is Riptide it has abit of a messy looking structure, IE there are competing circulations at the moment.

Anyway I do wonder whether Helene will play a part in the eventual outcome, as the models are suggesting the energy/Helene heads back into the Gulf and keeps the weakness open, that may well eventually help to keep the weakness open and allow this to recurve through, but thats a long way away yet and it may make no difference at all.

Anyway 94L heading a little north of west at 120hrs, still below 15N:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal120.gif

It's way down there, wow. The increase in forward speed is making the situation very interesting. It would be hard-pressed to recurve before hitting the islands.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP096.gif

[cycloneye]

In this 18z GFS run,it looks inevitable a hit to the islands.

114 hours.

[Hurricaneman]

18zGFS shows this approching Barbados as probably a hurricane in 132hrs

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[KWT]

Looking a very dangerous run, I just posted something by mistake about the 12z, but the 18z IS alot further west again.

Major threat to the Caribbean.

MASSIVE difference from the 12z GFS, but its closer to some of those ensemble members and I bet this run comes up through the C.Caribbean, Hispaniola and Cuba probably...

[cycloneye]

[Hurricane Andrew]

Cyclone, one of those pics says 1200, the other 0600.