EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Is not NHC but the enviromental conditions that are not as favorable at this time.

Then, why couldn't the NHC say so in the TWO?

When they say "Development is expected to be slow" it means the conditions are not ideal and it will be a slow proccess for it to organize.

Yeah, but I find that wording vague IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

00z Best Track

The only change from prior updates is the pressure drop of two millibars.

EP, 92, 2012051900, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1003W, 25, 1006 DB

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

There seems to be a lot of pressure changes with this storm.

[RL3AO]

It you look at the TWOs enough, you realize they use pretty much the same 8 to 10 phrases to describe any invest depending on how well its doing and what the environment is like.

[Yellow Evan]

Let's see if I can name the ten
1) DEVELOPMENT....IF ANY....WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR
2) ANY DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR
3) ANY DEVELOPMENT FROM THE WILL BE GRADUAL TO OCCUR
4) SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
5) DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY
6) SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED
7) SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
8) SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
9) THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
10) THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT
11) THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
12) A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEST DAY OR TWO
13) THIS SYSTEM CAN BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME
14) ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
15) A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING
Wow, I named 15. But yeah, the NHC seems to recycle old sayings.

[HurricaneJoe22]

Maybe they have a drop-down menu and just click on the wording they want to use.

[Chacor]

I suspect that's not far from what actually happens, I believe they follow a template.

[Cyclenall]

The development process of 92E has been painfully slow. The pressure was lowered to 1006 mb so that is going the right way.

Maybe they have a drop-down menu and just click on the wording they want to use.

I would be surprised if they didn't have that routine and format. When it goes off script, its news.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT MAY 19 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ALETTA...LOCATED ABOUT 605 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES LITTLE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

EP, 92, 2012051912, , BEST, 0, 110N, 996W, 25, 1006, DB

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[Yellow Evan]

So, no major changes from six hours ago?

[cycloneye]

It looks like a slow organization proccess is underway.



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[brunota2003]

The question is...is the surface low from yesterday still there, or did it open up?

[cycloneye]

The question is...is the surface low from yesterday still there, or did it open up?

Or a new low forms.

[cycloneye]

Nothing new at 11:00 AM PDT TWO.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT MAY 19 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
ALETTA...LOCATED ABOUT 585 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO REMAINS DISORGANIZED. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES LITTLE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW OF ALETTA PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

EP, 92, 2012051918, , BEST, 0, 113N, 990W, 25, 1006, DB

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

From the 22:05 UTC discussion:

EXPECT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 11N100W TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR 10N100W WHILE THE CENTRAL PRES GRADUALLY DEEPENS
AND THE OUTER WIND FIELD STEADILY STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE MONSOON TROUGH TO BECOME MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE E
PACIFIC E OF 110W. EXPECT TO SEE ENHANCED N-NE WINDS SPILLING
ACROSS THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN THROUGH
MON BASED ON GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. A KEY FACTOR WILL BE FORMATION
OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHILE HIGH PRES
BUILDS S ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. ONSET SHOULD OCCUR IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. WINDS DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SUPPLY POSITIVE VORTICITY TO
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND
MAY ALLOW TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS TO EVENTUALLY OCCUR. GFS MODEL
IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER FOR ITS AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UKMET AND ECMWF ARE MORE RESTRAINED
IN DEVELOPING THE BROAD LOW PRES AREA THROUGH TUE...AND ARE THE
BASIS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT MAY 19 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT
WITHOUT ANY WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES LITTLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

Pressure down one millibar to 1005 mbs.

EP, 92, 2012052000, , BEST, 0, 110N, 980W, 25, 1005, DB

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

A Spaggetti of tracks for 92E. SHIP intensity goes up at 00z to 81kts.



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[brunota2003]

When does it claim 81 knots? Christmas?