WPAC: SAOLA - Post-Tropical

[dexterlabio]

^oh, happy birthday James! chasing down saola could be your birthday gift right now, just hoping the storm doesn't turn out bad.

[dexterlabio]

well now, which do you think got the position of the storm right? i think i've seen this a lot of times this year.

[Meow]

Hi Dexter, yes I'll head to Taiwan if the track's don't change too much.

Big concern for this is the slow forecast track near Taiwan, if it verifies will bring threat of bad flooding for sure!

Will you hunt Saola in Taiwan? Not far from Hong Kong.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Haha many thanks guys Saola was named at 00z on my birthday so it was a nice present! Yes I'll head to Taiwan if this stays on track, will probably travel on Tuesday. Will of course post updates here on what transpires!

[euro6208]

JTWC keeps increasing the intensity before landfall and now forecasting a typhoon close to a category 3 (100) at landfall...scary situation

WTPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 17.8N 125.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 125.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 18.8N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.7N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.7N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.5N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 22.9N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 24.3N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 25.8N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 125.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

although saola looks to have weakened a bit

WDPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOLA) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH TWO DISTINCT CIRCULATION CENTERS ROTATING ABOUT A CENTROID. THE
EASTERN CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 126.6E AND THE
WESTERN CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 125.2E. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE CENTROID, WHICH IS BETWEEN THE TWO
CIRCULATION CENTERS. A 290057Z METOP-A IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LLCC WITH A WEAKER BAND OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 290059Z ASCAT
IMAGE ALSO CONFIRMS THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE LLCC WITH 30 TO 35
KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. BASED ON THIS DATA, THERE
IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AS WELL AS DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35
(PGTW, KNES) TO 55 KNOTS (RJTD). THE RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATE APPEARS
TOO HIGH CONSIDERING THE ASCAT DATA AND THE LLCC'S ELONGATED
SIGNATURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED, NEAR-
RADIAL OUTFLOW. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE 28/12Z 500 MB
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK EASTERN STR AND A STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED
STR POSITIONED OVER EASTERN CHINA AND JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN STR. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TWO DISTINCT GROUPINGS.
NOGAPS AND GFS REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE AND SHOW A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48, WHICH IS INCORRECT DUE TO
ERRONEOUS INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING SOUTH OF JAPAN.
THE SECOND GROUPING OF MODELS (JGSM, ECMWF, UKMO AND WBAR) PRESENT A
MORE CONSISTENT FORECAST (AND TIGHT GROUPING) TOWARD TAIWAN WITHOUT
ANY INDICATIONS OF ERRONEOUS CYCLONE INTERACTION. TS 10W IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TO A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS BY
TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN THE DYNAMIC
MODEL TRACKERS WITH NOGAPS AND GFS TRACKING THE SYSTEM NORTH OF
TAIWAN AND THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS TRACKING THE SYSTEM OVER
TAIWAN. THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN LOCATING THE SYSTEM CENTER AS WELL AS POTENTIAL
TRACK ERROR DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER
TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST AS THE
STEERING INFLUENCE TRANSITIONS TO THE STRONG STR POSITIONED OVER
CHINA AND JAPAN.//
NNNN


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 985.3mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 2.8 2.7

[euro6208]

i know CHIPS aren't reliable but what if this really happened? category 5 soon?

[euro6208]

over high heat content...strengthening is likely...

[Typhoon Hunter]

JTWC mentioned there we multiple centers earlier which could have kept Saola in check for the meantime. Currently a burst of convection taking place over one of the apparent centres, I think JMA may well relocate to the JTWC position soon.

Saola will have plenty of time to intensify over the next few days tracking over very high OHC and in a favourable environment.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Meow]

STS 1209 (SAOLA)
Issued at 07:10 UTC, 29 July 2012

<Analyses at 29/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°25'(17.4°)
E124°10'(124.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 30/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°10'(19.2°)
E123°50'(123.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 31/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°10'(21.2°)
E123°10'(123.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 01/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°10'(23.2°)
E122°30'(122.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL500km(270NM)

<Forecast for 02/06 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N25°30'(25.5°)
E122°10'(122.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)

<Forecast for 03/06 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N31°30'(31.5°)
E120°25'(120.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Radius of probability circle 700km(375NM)

[dexterlabio]

burst of convection wrapping around the supposed real center.

[Meow]

Could anyone explain this?

[madness]

Could anyone explain this?

JMA 5-day forecasts have two systems approaching Shanghai, China
Believe me, this has got my attention. Both Taiwan and China are squarely in the firing line.
When is the next JWTC update.

[RobWESTPACWX]

JMA is leaning towards the Big one sucking in the small one in simple terms, think Saola as black hole, and Damrey is a start that wondered a little to close, thus they both likely will get pulled towards eastern China, This is going to be one crazy event all around.

[RobWESTPACWX]

I just a video on this storm and also our other one to the North.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kpty2fm-LgA&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

[euro6208]

now at 50 knots 1 min and expected to rapidly intensify close to 100 knots!

WTPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 18.8N 125.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 125.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.7N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.6N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.4N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 22.2N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 23.8N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 25.5N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 27.6N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 125.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z
IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

the whole of taiwan and its capital, taipei, under a bull's eye...

[euro6208]

in agreement with cimss estimates...

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 986.2mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.3 3.3

[Meow]

A big threat to Taiwan.





STS 1209 (SAOLA)
Issued at 13:10 UTC, 29 July 2012

<Analyses at 29/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°10'(18.2°)
E124°25'(124.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 30/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°55'(19.9°)
E123°35'(123.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 31/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°35'(21.6°)
E123°00'(123.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 01/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°25'(23.4°)
E122°20'(122.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL500km(270NM)

<Forecast for 02/12 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N26°25'(26.4°)
E121°40'(121.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)

<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N30°40'(30.7°)
E121°00'(121.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(11kt)
Radius of probability circle 700km(375NM)

[euro6208]

newest prognostic reasoning from JTWC is out and it looks like models are having a hard time figuring where saola will go...

WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOLA) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A STEADY IMPROVEMENT OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE
IMPROVED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC REMAINS
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED IN THE EAST-WEST AXIS; HOWEVER THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION
REMAINS OVER THE LLCC AND EXTENDS WESTWARD TOWARDS LUZON AND
CONTINUES ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TROPICAL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY
LOCATED TO THE WEST OF TS 11W (DAMREY) IS BEGINNING TO ENHANCE THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FOR TS 10W. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. TS 10W IS TRACKING
TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN AND EXTENDS INTO
EASTERN CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH
NGPS AND GFS INDICATING A CLOSER TRACK TOWARDS TAIWAN WITH LANDFALL
IN EASTERN CHINA. NGPS AND GFS REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
ENVELOPE, INDICATING THEY STILL FAVOR MORE INTERACTION WITH TS 11W
(DAMREY). THE SECOND GROUPING OF MODELS (GFDN, ECMWF, AND WBAR)
PRESENT A MORE CONSISTENT FORECAST (AND TIGHT GROUPING) TOWARD
TAIWAN WITHOUT ANY INDICATIONS OF EXCESSIVE CYCLONE INTERACTION. TS
10W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TO A PEAK
OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE
DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS WITH NGPS AND GFS TRACKING THE SYSTEM NORTH
OF TAIWAN AND THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS TRACKING THE SYSTEM OVER
TAIWAN. THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO
THE WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE
IMPROVES AS TS 10W MOVES TOWARDS THE STR LOCATED OVER CHINA AND
JAPAN.//
NNNN

[ricmood]

We are experiencing storm like winds here south of Manila. What is causing this?