ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[bahamaswx]

Ike was a once in a lifetime storm. Tracks like that just don't happen.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS 0z is showing a real threat to bermuda this run, this is where I think it will ultimately go

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[CrazyC83]

Has there ever been a full-force hurricane in Cape Verde?

[jaxfladude]

Of the 31 storms to have ever formed within 200nmi of 93L, three monsters have gone on to US landfall: Cat 2 Able (South Carolina in 1952), Cat 3 Dora (Jacksonville in 1964), and the 1947 Ft. Lauderdale hurricane, which was a Cat 4 at landfall.

http://i47.tinypic.com/125repd.png

Do not mention Dora

[UpTheCreek]

My wife was born in Jacksonville.......during Dora!

[Hammy]

Has there ever been a full-force hurricane in Cape Verde?

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif closest I can find, looks like it became a hurricane as it was moving through the westernmost islands

[Hurricane Alexis]

Up to 50 percent

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND AFRICA. THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

[fci]

One word,impressive.

93L loop

That isn't a second system right to the south of 93L is it?

No,is part of ITCZ.

Can the area to the south, in the ITCZ; break out and develop on its own?

[KWT]

Looking good this morning...

As others have said, it really should recurve at this latitude and already moving WNW, its hard to see anything else happen with this system. 10% chance of it making it across and those odds go down every bit of latitude it gains.

[cycloneye]

Can the area to the south, in the ITCZ; break out and develop on its own?

fci, in the tropics,you never know what may occur as many factors are involved and that area south of 93L may be an own entity as the separation between the two areas grows.

[TheBurn]

9:00z VIS / IR (Day / Night)

[Sanibel]

All waves are weak tea this year so far.

[KWT]

Just needs abit more convective buff and this one will be going. The models have actually backed off again on this one, we'll just have to wait and see...it will move into less favourable conditions soon with cooler SST's but once it gets west of say 40-45W temps start to increase again.

[cycloneye]

Here is the Weather Station in Sal at Cape Verde Islands.Some gusty winds blowing.

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/08594.html

[KWT]

I can see now why the models aren't doing much now with this system, looks like alot of dry air is out in the Atlantic according to the models and because this one goes so far north it cuts itself off from possible moisture and looks like the models just choke the system.

We'll have to wait and see whether that eventually happens.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 50%.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ACCOMPANIED BY A TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
AFRICA. THE LOW IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT
CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

[rainstorm]

looking at the 06z gfs it shows a strong negative nao, no atlantic ridge and low pressure off the new england coast. thats the exact opposite of whats needed for development or threats. it only has a very weak reflection of whats left of 93L. with all due respect to joe bastardi this is not the type of pattern that favors in close development or in close threats.

[Gustywind]

10/1145 UTC 16.1N 20.2W TOO WEAK 93L

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 101200
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...



TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N19W TO 20N18W MOVING WNW AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA IN THE PAST 6
HOURS AND EXHIBITS VERY DISTINCT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE
LOW-LEVELS WITH A 1004 MB LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
15N19W. GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT IF THE LOW HOLDS
TOGETHER WITH SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION...IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 18W-21W.

[rainstorm]

I think the future is grim for this wave. too far north, neg nao, and dry air will win the day. one good thing i suppose, with the atlantic ridge forecast to go away the african dust cloud should not be an issue soon.