WPAC: BOPHA - Remnants

[euro6208]

the entire philippines getting soaked...Next Target: Palawan!

[euro6208]

incredible microwave of monster category 5 bopha at landfall...

[Meow]

WTPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 036

They just changed 035 to 036.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Just tossed a video together guys, some footage mixed in there.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZTDF0_3j5I[/youtube]

[euro6208]

Powerful typhoon kills at least 40 in Philippines



MANILA, Philippines (AP) - A Philippine governor says at least 33 villagers and soldiers have drowned when torrents of water dumped by a powerful typhoon rushed down a mountain, engulfing the victims and bringing the death toll from the storm to at least 40.


http://www.guampdn.com/usatoday/article/1743481?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|Frontpage|s

[cycloneye]

From Dr Jeff Masters:

Bopha: the 2nd most southerly Category 5 typhoon on record

Bopha, a Cambodian word for flower or a girl, became a tropical depression unusually close to the Equator, at 3.6°N latitude. Tropical cyclones rarely form so close to the Equator, because they cannot leverage the Earth's rotation to get themselves spinning. Bopha became the second most southerly Category 5 typhoon on Monday at 7.4°N latitude. The record is held by Typhoon Louise of 1964, which was a Category 5 storm at 7.3°N.

[cycloneye]

Death Toll goes up to 81 in Mindanao

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/regio ... h-mindanao

MANILA, Philippines (5th UPDATE) - At least 81 people have died in Mindanao from the onslaught of Typhoon Pablo (international name Bopha), authorities said Tuesday.

In New Bataan town in Compostela Valley, 43 people died when flash floods swept away an Army patrol base, a landslide hit a community, and trees fell on people.

On the way to the disaster site, Araneta also met a man who said his 2-year-old child died because of the typhoon.

[PaulR]

Hi, All. Newbie here!

I'm no weather expert, but have had an interest ever since my family's house was destroyed in a tornado in Kansas when I was 10 yrs. old. (No one in our family was hurt.) As you can see from my signature I tend to take the long view of things.

Anyway, relative to Bopha / Pablo, we have some relatives in Mindano and Cebu -- have not heard back from most yet. None were right on the eastern coast in Mindano, thankfully... Will update if we hear anything.

Here's a fairly complete news report from philstar.com (as of 12:00 a.m. local [Manila?] time:

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2012/ ... o%E2%80%99

[PaulR]

Death Toll goes up to 81 in Mindanao

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/regio ... h-mindanao

MANILA, Philippines (5th UPDATE) - At least 81 people have died in Mindanao from the onslaught of Typhoon Pablo (international name Bopha), authorities said Tuesday.

In New Bataan town in Compostela Valley, 43 people died when flash floods swept away an Army patrol base, a landslide hit a community, and trees fell on people.

On the way to the disaster site, Araneta also met a man who said his 2-year-old child died because of the typhoon.

Yeah... I almost added to my first post that I would expect the death toll to exceed 100, but it seemed too depressing for a 1st post on the forum...

[PaulR]

latest shot of Hinatuan Radar... the eye becoming much clearer now...



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

All I could find last night for the Hinatuan Radar last night indicated it was down -- do you have a link? Might be handy in the future. Thanks!

[yulou]

I highly doubt it was 105-110 kt at landfall. Unlike many of the recent NGOM storms, Bopha maintained a stable inner core structure and a closed eyewall at landfall. This was very evident in both microwave imagery and the local radar. I don't think this was a Cat 5 at landfall, but I would estimate it as pretty close... maybe 125-135 kt at landfall.

same thoughts! i would place the intensity close to 130 or 135 knots at landfall.

i think it could be C5. because the weakness of the pressure always lags behind the change of its structure.
So although the structure of Bopha was destroyed, its pressure could still maintain on a low level for several hours.

[Ptarmigan]

Death Toll goes up to 81 in Mindanao

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/regio ... h-mindanao

MANILA, Philippines (5th UPDATE) - At least 81 people have died in Mindanao from the onslaught of Typhoon Pablo (international name Bopha), authorities said Tuesday.

In New Bataan town in Compostela Valley, 43 people died when flash floods swept away an Army patrol base, a landslide hit a community, and trees fell on people.

On the way to the disaster site, Araneta also met a man who said his 2-year-old child died because of the typhoon.

Yeah... I almost added to my first post that I would expect the death toll to exceed 100, but it seemed too depressing for a 1st post on the forum...

It would not surprise me either.

[supercane4867]

Barely a typhoon now, the show is done


TPPN10 PGTW 041825
A. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA)
B. 04/1730Z
C. 9.7N
D. 121.0E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.5/W3.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. A .90 WRAP ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. PT IS 4.0.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
04/1420Z 9.7N 121.8E

[supercane4867]

The JTWC still forecasts some strengthening in the next 48hrs, but really getting hammered by dry stable air and shear later on
will Bopha make it to the coast?

SUBJ: TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 037
WTPN31 PGTW 042100
1. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 9.7N 120.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7N 120.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 10.7N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 11.3N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 11.9N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 12.7N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 13.3N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 13.7N 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.8N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

[CrazyC83]

It appears reality is getting back in, probably about 65-70 kt right now and likely weakened down to Cat 1 over the Philippines. (That said, Cat 1 is still dangerous for Palawan!)

But I agree it was probably a Cat 5 at landfall - based on microwave and overall satellite data it probably only weakened slightly in the final hours, if at all. Maybe 145 or 150 kt.

[CrazyC83]

http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/intern ... es/1056242

Horrifying damage, and this was on the left (south) side of the eye.

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 10.0N 119.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N 119.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 10.8N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 11.5N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 12.0N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 12.6N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 13.1N 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 13.4N 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.6N 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 10.2N 119.3E.
TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTHWEST OF
ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z
IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 38//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTHWEST OF
ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS NEWLY FORMING OVERSHOOTING TOPS OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS THE SYSTEM NEARS NORTHERN PALAWAN. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY AND SIMILAR CENTER FIX
POSITIONS FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AGREEABLE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES AS WELL AS CONGRUENT OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 26W IS LOCATED A FEW
DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF A COL REGION BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGES
CENTERED TO THE EAST AND WEST. POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A
CONNECTION INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, IS PROVIDING THE MAIN
EXHAUST MECHANISM FOR TY 26W AS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS NO LONGER
CROSS EQUATORIAL. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS WEAK AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. TY 26W IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE EASTERN LOBE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND STEERING TOWARDS
THE COL REGION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 26W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN
STR TOWARDS THE COL. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY TAU 36 AND INTO TAU 48 DUE TO FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OUTFLOW. BY TAU 72 A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD
COMMENCE AS OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DECREASES AND VWS INCREASES AND A
NORTHEAST MONSOON SURGE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
C. DURING DAYS FOUR AND FIVE TY 26W WILL ENCOUNTER A STRONG
NORTHEAST MONSOON SURGE AND ENTER A VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
UNDERNEATH THE COL REGION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOW AND
PERHAPS ERRATIC WITH A LOOPING MOTION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE COMPLEXITIES OF FORECASTING SUCH A MOTION WITH
VALIDITY THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS TO KEEP THE TRACK SPEEDS SLOW AND
GENERALLY WEST TO EVEN SOUTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM INGESTS DRY AIR IN THE
MID-LEVELS AND VWS INCREASES, PERHAPS BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE THE DEEP
CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC. OBJECTIVE AID GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
IN THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE SPREAD IN THE
CONSENSUS MEMBERS. THIS LATEST RUN HOWEVER DOES SHOW MORE TRACKERS
INDICATING A CLOCKWISE LOOP BUT THE DEGREE OF TURN VARIES GREATLY.
JGSM CONTINUES TO PORTRAY A WESTWARD TRACK. ALL IN ALL THE LOOPING
TRACKERS JUST CONFIRMS THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THIS IS WHY
THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH SLOW TRACK SPEEDS INDICATING QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. DUE TO THE
LARGE SPREAD IN TRACKERS, LOW TRACK CONFIDENCE REMAINS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

palawan landfall!

[dexterlabio]

incredible microwave of monster category 5 bopha at landfall...

proof that it was Cat5 near the east coast of Mindanao, and it maintained its well-defined structure until the western half of the eye wall hit land. In fact the eye wall got more intense as it neared land, so I don't get the doubt on the intensity.

Anyway, Bopha sure looks weakened after traversing Mindanao. The high mountains should have flattened this storm greatly. Though we have some thing to look at now as it is supposed to enter a boundary between 2 STR's from the east and west. Some models are projecting the STR from WPAC retreating to the east so I think there is a complex picture coming. The best scenario though, is the cold surge obliterating Bopha completely before it goes somewhere else.

[CrazyC83]

How common are landfalls on Palawan? Even a Cat 1 could be huge especially if they are not well accustomed to them.