CPAC: DANIEL - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

Looks near hurricane status too me IMO.

[Cyclenall]

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 PM PDT THU JUL 05 2012

DANIEL HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING MORE PROMINENT
ALONG WITH A RATHER SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN. A BLEND OF THE
TAFB/SAB SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50
KT. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER LIGHT SHEAR AND OVER WARM WATER.
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE SHIPS INDEX
GIVING A 26 PERCENT CHANCE OF THAT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES
NEAR THE SHIPS MODEL. IN A FEW DAYS...DANIEL WILL LIKELY BE MOVING
OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.

DANIEL IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AND MORE TOWARD THE WEST...WITH AN
ESTIMATE OF 280/11. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON A
TRACK TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER
IS THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS...THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE FASTER
THAN BEFORE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 14.2N 111.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 14.5N 113.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 14.8N 115.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 15.1N 117.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 15.3N 119.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 15.7N 124.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 16.0N 130.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 16.5N 136.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

This discussion was the best one yet on Daniel and I'm in much more agreement. I'll break this down:

RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE SHIPS INDEX
GIVING A 26 PERCENT CHANCE OF THAT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES
NEAR THE SHIPS MODEL.

They are mentioning RI here because I think they see how fast Daniel is doing the wrap-around thing again. That might be RI right now if it successfully completes it but what sometimes happens is the band that is wrapping becomes too weak to sustain the eyewall and ends up fading and failing the "mission" . Hurricane Carlotta's wrap-around was a huge success and one of the most spectator ones I've ever seen. The key is deep convection that bursts over the band region that tends to weaken. UPDATE: Daniel might have failed the first attempt but a 2nd wrap move might be on the way...currently convection is building over the center or near. There are hot towers in several locations of Daniel. The new peak intensity forecast of 75 knots was a good move.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER
IS THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE.

...DANIEL TURNS WESTWARD AND STRENGTHENS...

This is great, the King Euro shows a south shift which is a good start to begin this thing moving more wsw instead. The GFDL and Ukmet are also a dream in terms of track. Cross fingers for further south shifts.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 JUL 2012 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 14:15:05 N Lon : 111:58:17 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 992.5mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.5 3.5

Center Temp : -62.1C Cloud Region Temp : -63.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON ( )
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 37km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.3 degrees

[Kingarabian]

Haven't seen a sign of an eye at all so I would put the intensity at 60kts.
Edit:
Up to 55kts.

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[Yellow Evan]

Adv should be out soon.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 060244
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT THU JUL 05 2012

...DANIEL GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 113.1W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST. DANIEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND DANIEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 060244
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
0300 UTC FRI JUL 06 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 113.1W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 113.1W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 112.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.6N 114.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.9N 116.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.1N 119.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.4N 121.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.0N 126.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 16.5N 132.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 17.0N 138.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 113.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 060245
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT THU JUL 05 2012

A WINDSAT OVERPASS FROM 0116 UTC AND GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT
DANIEL IS TILTED A BIT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH HEIGHT. DESPITE THE
TILT...DANIEL HAS STRENGTHENED...AND THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55
KT BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE
UW-CIMSS ADT.

THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS THE SAME AS BEFORE...280/11 KT. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...KEEPING DANIEL
ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST SINCE THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GREATER-THAN-NORMAL AGREEMENT.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. SINCE THE RI INDEX
SHOWS A 3 IN 10 CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM. AFTER 36 HOURS...THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW...BUT DANIEL WILL BE
MOVING OVER WATERS COLDER THAN 26C AND THROUGH A MORE STABLE AIR
MASS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
FROM DAY 2 AND BEYOND.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 14.4N 113.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 14.6N 114.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 14.9N 116.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 15.1N 119.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 15.4N 121.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 16.0N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 16.5N 132.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 17.0N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Cyclenall]

Looking more "monstrous" now. Very deep convection persisting and becoming more curved. I don't know when the next attempt at a wrap-around will occur but when it does the results should be impressive.

[Kingarabian]

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012

DANIEL HAS NOT STRENGTHENED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A TIMELY
AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 0455 UTC SHOWS THAT THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TILT BETWEEN THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL
CENTERS. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
ALL AROUND T3.5...SO THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 55 KT.

IT IS A RATHER TRICKY INTENSITY FORECAST THIS MORNING. DANIEL
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATER
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH FAVORS STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR THE
CYCLONE TO RESPOND TO THESE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF AND NOW KEEP DANIEL JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE GFDL AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE STILL
MAKE THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE AND SO WILL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
HOWEVER...THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED A LITTLE FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW...DANIEL WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATER INTO A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS IN 36-48 HOURS WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.
DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 5 DAYS.

THERE IS MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. DANIEL IS
CURRENTLY MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD
COURSE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS REQUIRED FROM THE
PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY.

[Yellow Evan]

Any RBT data out? Daniel looks pretty healthy IMO.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012

THE INFRARED PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED A LITTLE OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS AS A RAGGED CDO FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF
THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION. HOWEVER...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF DANIEL IS TILTED
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH HEIGHT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 1200Z TAFB AND SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE DANIEL CROSSES THE 26C ISOTHERM. THE NHC
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS THINKING AND IS ABOVE MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS FROM
48 HOURS ONWARD...AND SHOWS DANIEL BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...SHOWING
DANIEL TURNING WESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER IN
THE PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND CLOSE TO THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 14.8N 114.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 15.1N 116.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 15.2N 118.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 15.4N 120.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 15.6N 123.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 16.3N 128.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 16.5N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 16.5N 141.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Kingarabian]

Daniel you are wasting everyone's time if you don't become a Hurricane. With conditions this good, it is a shame for you to struggle.

[Yellow Evan]

Daniel you are wasting everyone's time if you don't become a Hurricane. With conditions this good, it is a shame for you to struggle.

Daniel, please don't be like your aunt Fernanda.

[Kingarabian]

He's actually wrapping around pretty nice now. Perfect time to reveal that eye.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like it may have peaked for now.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012

THE STRUCTURE OF DANIEL HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...WITH A CDO PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER BUT NO SIGNS OF AN
EYE FORMING YET IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 18Z DVORAK FIXES FROM TAFB
AND SAB. WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW...DANIEL HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS
LEFT BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS. INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE
STATUS IS STILL SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH HAS THE
SUPPORT OF MORE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE. RAPID
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THE LGEM THEREAFTER.

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SUGGESTS THAT
THE CENTER OF DANIEL IS LOCATED SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES AND HAS
BEEN MOVING NEARLY DUE WEST OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AT AROUND 10 KT.
A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AS
DANIEL MOVES SOUTH OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE NEW NHC
TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ADJUSTED FOR THE MORE
SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION AND THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS
RESULTS IN A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF 15 TO 20 NM THROUGH THE PERIOD
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 14.4N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 14.6N 117.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 14.8N 119.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 15.0N 122.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 15.4N 124.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 16.0N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 16.0N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 16.0N 142.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Kingarabian]

We have Hurricane Daniel.

Code: Select all

EP, 04, 2012070700,   , BEST,   0, 145N, 1164W,  65,  988, HU,  64, NEQ,   20,    0,    0,   20, 1007,  220,  20,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     DANIEL, D,

[Kingarabian]

Convection is now tightly packing the center... Eye is desperately trying to form.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012

DANIEL WAS SHOWING HINTS OF AN EYE A FEW HOURS AGO IN GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE IMAGES...AND THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE CONFIRMED BY A
RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 KT TO 75 KT...AND DANIEL IS UPGRADED TO A
65-KT HURRICANE BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE DANIEL IS
IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 26C.
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW DURING THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE STABLE WHEN DANIEL MOVES FARTHER WEST. THE
NHC FORECAST INDICATES GRADUAL WEAKENING FROM 36 HOURS AND
BEYOND...CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM AND
THE LGEM ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.

DANIEL IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS MOVING 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND DANIEL SHOULD
RESPOND BY MOVING FASTER TO THE WEST...ESPECIALLY BY DAYS 3 THROUGH
5 WHEN IT BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NHC FORECAST LIES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. DANIEL
HAS NOT BEEN GAINING MUCH LATITUDE OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO...AND
THE ECMWF MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN DOING THE BEST JOB IN
CAPTURING THAT MOTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 14.5N 117.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 14.7N 118.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 14.9N 120.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 15.2N 122.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 15.6N 125.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 16.0N 131.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 16.0N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 16.0N 144.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Kingarabian]

Daniels eye.

[Kingarabian]

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012

HINTS OF AN EYE ARE APPARENT IN THE LAST FEW GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE IMAGES. THIS EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE
DATA SINCE ABOUT 0000 UTC...AND A SSMIS PASS AROUND 0400 UTC
INDICATED THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS RAGGED. THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS INCREASED A LITTLE TO 70 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS
ADT ESTIMATES. DANIEL WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 18 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE
WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER AIRMASS. THESE
COMBINED FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING STARTING IN ABOUT 24
HOURS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

DANIEL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AN ESTIMATED 10 KT. A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LATEST ECMWF TRACK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO
THE NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND AND IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WERE MODIFIED
SLIGHTLY BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0430 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 14.6N 118.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 14.8N 119.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 15.1N 122.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 15.4N 124.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 15.7N 127.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 16.2N 133.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 16.3N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 16.5N 146.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI