WPAC: JELAWAT - Post-Tropical

[phwxenthusiast]

whoa 115kt sustained!?!?! very aggressive indeed from JMA...
EURO also showing a 140-kt typhoon before moving into Taiwan...

[mrbagyo]

Second category 5 in a row???, that's not far fetch considering its recent round of intensification( and it's still intensifying)... Jelawat vs Sanba, who will take the crown of being the 2012's strongest??? haha and we still have October to December coming ahead...I think Jelawat is a Category 4 - for NOW

[mrbagyo]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 944.1mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.2 6.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +4.7C Cloud Region Temp : -74.9C

Scene Type : EYE

and look how it climbed from 4.5 to 6.1 for a very short period of time

[phwxenthusiast]

Second category 5 in a row???, that's not far fetch considering its recent round of intensification( and it's still intensifying)... Jelawat vs Sanba, who will take the crown of being the 2012's strongest??? haha and we still have October to December coming ahead...I think Jelawat is a Category 4 - for NOW

what i'm somewhat concerned about though is the possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle... i've mentioned this before with Sanba and it did undergo EWRC although it occurred later that what i've predicted... as for Jelawat, latest microwave suggest what seems to be a concentric convective ring starting to form although that doesn't necessarily mean EWRC will commence soon... imho, i think Jelawat still has roughly 24 to 36 hours of really favorable conditions and as we've seen with Sanba, Jelawat definitely has the chance of becoming our second Cat-5 in a row...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[P.K.]

Just seen that 115kt forecast as well. That is quite something from them!

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 12.2N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - QUASI-STATIONARY
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 13.0N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.0N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.4N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.7N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.9N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.7N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 23.5N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 128.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

prognostics


WDPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 18W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 18
HOURS WITH A 45 KNOT INCREASE (55 TO 100 KNOTS) AND, BASED ON
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI), HAS ALSO STARTED ANOTHER SMALL
CLOCKWISE LOOP OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MSI DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A 12NM ROUND EYE AND BANDING FEATURE OVER
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. AFTER THE EYE DEVELOPED, DVORAK ESTIMATES
HAVE JUMPED TO T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES, THEREFORE, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION BASED ON THE SMALL EYE
EVIDENT IN MSI. TY 18W REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPLEX STEERING
ENVIRONMENT RESULTING FROM THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING PRESENT OVER
ASIA AND THE PRESENCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (93W)
LOCATED ABOUT 650NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE 23/00Z 500MB ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN
JAPAN AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO EASTERN CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. AFTER COMPLETING THE LOOP, TY 18W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST. AS 93W TRACKS NORTHWARD,
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF TY
18W, PROVIDING A NORTHWARD STEERING INFLUENCE. AFTER TAU 48, THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND THE STR WILL BUILD NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL ALLOW TY 18W TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD. DUE TO
THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH LARGE SHIFTS IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE
FROM RUN-TO-RUN. THERE IS CURRENTLY A 500NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 72 WITH TWO DISTINCT MODEL GROUPINGS. THE EASTERN GROUP,
COMPOSED OF UKMO, WBAR AND JGSM, INDICATES A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK. THE WESTERN GROUP, COMPOSED OF GFDN, ECMWF, NOGAPS, ECMWF AND
GFS, FAVORS A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC
FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE WESTERN GROUP OF MODEL SOLUTIONS;
HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. AVAILABLE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST TRACK WITH A SPREAD SIMILAR TO THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.
TY 18W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS BY TAU 24-36.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE DYNAMIC MODELS REMAIN CLUSTERED IN
TWO GROUPS AND DIVERGE FURTHER WITH A 815NM SPREAD AT TAU 120. THE
JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE WESTERN GROUP OF SOLUTIONS,
WHICH INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN WITH A RE-CURVE
POINT JUST EAST OF TAIWAN. AFTER TAU 120, TY 18W IS FORECAST TO RE-
CURVE TOWARD OKINAWA IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH
(CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CHINA, ALONG 90E), WHICH IS FORECAST TO
TRACK INTO EASTERN CHINA AFTER TAU 96. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED TRACK DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ISSUES.//
NNNN

Okinawa again??

[phwxenthusiast]

wow now JMA has Jelawat as a 100-kt Typhoon still forecasting 115kt by 3 days' time!!

i gotta say, it seems like the typhoon center in Japan has been replaced by a new batch of mets.. they've been ahead of the curve in terms of intensity estimates in most storms this year and are nicely matched with the JTWC (1-min, 10-min difference)... their forecasts are also becoming more aggressive this year...

[P.K.]

Of note from 09Z yesterday to 09Z today Jelawat increased by 50kts with the centre pressure dropping 65hPa.

WTPQ20 RJTD 230900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1217 JELAWAT (1217)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230900UTC 12.3N 128.7E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 240900UTC 14.1N 128.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 250600UTC 16.4N 128.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 260600UTC 18.7N 128.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT =

[Hurricane_Luis]

Typhoon Jelawat at Category 3 strength, 100 knots (185 km/h; 115 mph) sustained 10-min max winds

[greenkat]

Explosive intensification!!!
I checked an hour earlier, and it was C1 strength, and now look at it!!!!!!!!

[euro6208]

Category 4 Jelawat with 120 knots winds and forecast to become our 2nd category 5!


WTPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 12.6N 128.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 128.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.5N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.7N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.9N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.2N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.1N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.1N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 23.4N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 128.7E.
TYPHOON (TY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

Lots of wobblen today, how much you want to bet some right wing people are going to say HARP is the cause of that.

Any how I talked about that for a moment in my video today.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfmzAr8BILw[/youtube]



Model Consensus is not very agreed on right now.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Very strong wind field going in to this storm.

[Hurricane_Luis]

At Catageoy 4 now has pinhole eye easily could be a Cat 5

For Comparison heres Typhhon Jelawat



and Heres Hurricane Wilma from 2005

[mrbagyo]

the eye had shrunk.. and looks like its going for another mini loop



ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 SEP 2012 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 12:45:04 N Lon : 128:38:55 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 927.2mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -16.3C Cloud Region Temp : -76.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 100km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 24.1 degrees

[euro6208]

yes indeed mybagyo....Latest Discussion mentions a 10 nm eye...

WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 18W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH A 65 KNOT INCREASE (55 TO 120 KNOTS)
AND, BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY, HAS ALSO
COMPLETED A SMALL COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP FROM 07Z TO 09Z. ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY POLEWARD, THE TRACK MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN
VERY ERRATIC AND THE MOTION OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS MAY BE SIGNALING
ANOTHER LOOP. IR IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
A 10NM ROUND EYE AND STRONG SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 120 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.0 (115 KNOTS) TO T6.5 (127 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND KNES/RJTD, RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION BASED ON THE SMALL EYE
EVIDENT IN IR. TY 18W REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPLEX, WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT RESULTING FROM THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING PRESENT
OVER ASIA AND THE PRESENCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (93W)
LOCATED ABOUT 695NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE 23/00Z 500MB ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN
JAPAN AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO EASTERN CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
REASONING MESSAGE. DUE TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER, THE
PEAK INTENSITY IS NOW 140 KNOTS AT TAU 24.
B. TY 18W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) TO THE EAST. AS 93W TRACKS NORTHWARD, THE NER IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF TY 18W, PROVIDING A
NORTHWARD STEERING INFLUENCE. AFTER TAU 48, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND THE STR WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE SYSTEM,
WHICH WILL ALLOW TY 18W TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD. DUE TO THE COMPLEX
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO REMAIN
UNSTABLE WITH LARGE SHIFTS IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE FROM RUN-TO-RUN.
THERE IS CURRENTLY A 300NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72 WITH TWO
DISTINCT MODEL GROUPINGS. THE EASTERN GROUP, COMPOSED OF UKMO, WBAR
AND JGSM, INDICATES A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE WESTERN GROUP,
COMPOSED OF GFDN, ECMWF, NOGAPS, ECMWF AND GFS, FAVORS A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO
FAVOR THE WESTERN GROUP OF MODEL SOLUTIONS; HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO
INDICATES A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITH A
SPREAD SIMILAR TO THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. TY 18W IS EXPECTED TO
PEAK NEAR TAU 24 AND SHOULD SEE GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS POLEWARD FLOW WEAKENS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE DYNAMIC MODELS REMAIN CLUSTERED IN
TWO GROUPS AND DIVERGE FURTHER WITH A 635NM SPREAD. THE JTWC
FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE WESTERN GROUP OF SOLUTIONS, WHICH
INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN WITH A RE-CURVE POINT
EAST OF TAIWAN. AFTER TAU 120, TY 18W IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE TOWARD
OKINAWA IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO TRACK INTO EASTERN CHINA AFTER TAU 96. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ISSUES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

euro has jelawat moving to the northwest and coming very close to taiwan as a very powerful typhoon but doesn't make landfall...instead, it parellels the coast and heads to the northeast...looks like okinawa all over again...

[euro6208]

looks like jelawat is still strengthening...two large convection bands have developed to the west and east of the circulation...

[RobWESTPACWX]

I hope Okinawa dosent get the effects of this, three back to back storms in a month. Good news though is that there never is any damage in Okinawa after these storms.