ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

Although not directly expected to impact the U.S., Leslie will affect a lot of areas and people. Bermuda could be hit dead on by what could be a near or major, not to mention large hurricane, Eastern Canada could see a similar hit. The swells, rip currents, and beach erosion are going on and will go on for days causing some significant damage to our beaches up and down the east coast as well as pose a threat due to rip currents, and now Europe could be affected by the extratropical remnants of Leslie.

She's starting to look like a classic large hurricane on satellite so now it's time to see if she'll become a major hurricane.

[MJS1]

Hurricane Andrew 92 might have the forecast right on..Leslie seems to be moving West-northwest ever so slowly up the line he drew on the map..I still say that Leslie will eventually turn west into Jacksonville-Georgia area, if not further south..

**THE PRECEDING FORECAST IS CRAZY....IT IS ONLY THE OPINION OF SOMEONE THAT HAS NO KNOWLEDGE OF METEOROLOGY AND IS AT BEST A LURKER TRYING TO LEARN FROM THE PRO METS>>>PLEASE LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL NHC/NWS FOR UP TO DATE INFORMMATION***

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Hurricane Andrew 92 might have the forecast right on..Leslie seems to be moving West-northwest ever so slowly up the line he drew on the map..I still say that Leslie will eventually turn west into Jacksonville-Georgia area, if not further south..

**THE PRECEDING FORECAST IS CRAZY....IT IS ONLY THE OPINION OF SOMEONE THAT HAS NO KNOWLEDGE OF METEOROLOGY AND IS AT BEST A LURKER TRYING TO LEARN FROM THE PRO METS>>>PLEASE LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL NHC/NWS FOR UP TO DATE INFORMMATION***

Thank you...as with all systems, we will have to watch and see.

[Ken711]

Hurricane Andrew 92 might have the forecast right on..Leslie seems to be moving West-northwest ever so slowly up the line he drew on the map..I still say that Leslie will eventually turn west into Jacksonville-Georgia area, if not further south..

**THE PRECEDING FORECAST IS CRAZY....IT IS ONLY THE OPINION OF SOMEONE THAT HAS NO KNOWLEDGE OF METEOROLOGY AND IS AT BEST A LURKER TRYING TO LEARN FROM THE PRO METS>>>PLEASE LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL NHC/NWS FOR UP TO DATE INFORMMATION***

Steering winds aren't there for such a turn West.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

I think it is possible that we still see tropical storm force winds on the cape and into central and eastern Maine. Now, there is a small chance that far east Maine sees Cat1 winds.

[Ptarmigan]

I think Leslie could be our first major hurricane of the season. It could be a nasty storm for sure.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 3:10 PM ADT Wednesday
5 September 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
Atlantic provinces.

For hurricane Leslie.

The next statement will be issued at 9:00 AM ADT Thursday.

General discussion regarding recently-upgraded hurricane Leslie
And possible influence in Eastern Canada.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
The Canadian Hurricane Centre is monitoring the development of
hurricane Leslie. The storm is expected to move very slowly and
intensify gradually over the next 3 days. Computer models are
predicting Leslie to only travel 250 kilometres over the next 2 days
which is basically a person's average speed of walking. With such a
slow speed of travel and the fact that the storm is still in its
organizing stage, there is much (more than usual) uncertainty in the
predicted path and intensity.

Computer models indicate that Leslie should eventually push through
the large 'Bermuda high' and accelerate toward Eastern Canada with a
range of track scenarios spanning Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.
The middle of these track forecasts crosses through Newfoundland -
but even that 'average' will likely shift several times with each new
run of simulations. If Leslie makes it to Eastern Canada, it would
not likely do so until early next week. There are other factors such
as 'cold-water upwelling' and 'high pressure building' resulting from
the hurricane itself that the computer models can sometimes fail to
predict. Thus, the range of scenarios may be even broader than those
models indicate now.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre will continue issuing these general
information statements on Thursday with more detailed track
information forecasts likely beginning on Friday.

Visit http://WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE/TRACK_E.HTML (all in lower
case) for the latest hurricane track map.

[lester]

Hurricane Andrew 92 might have the forecast right on..Leslie seems to be moving West-northwest ever so slowly up the line he drew on the map..I still say that Leslie will eventually turn west into Jacksonville-Georgia area, if not further south..

**THE PRECEDING FORECAST IS CRAZY....IT IS ONLY THE OPINION OF SOMEONE THAT HAS NO KNOWLEDGE OF METEOROLOGY AND IS AT BEST A LURKER TRYING TO LEARN FROM THE PRO METS>>>PLEASE LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL NHC/NWS FOR UP TO DATE INFORMMATION***

The chances of that happening is less than 1%.

[Cyclenall]

Hurricane Andrew 92 might have the forecast right on..Leslie seems to be moving West-northwest ever so slowly up the line he drew on the map..I still say that Leslie will eventually turn west into Jacksonville-Georgia area, if not further south..

**THE PRECEDING FORECAST IS CRAZY....IT IS ONLY THE OPINION OF SOMEONE THAT HAS NO KNOWLEDGE OF METEOROLOGY AND IS AT BEST A LURKER TRYING TO LEARN FROM THE PRO METS>>>PLEASE LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL NHC/NWS FOR UP TO DATE INFORMMATION***

The chances of that happening is less than 1%.

He/she has been forecasting that for days now, I would peg the odds at 0.4% IMO. Needless to say, that forecast will bust but on the insane turn of events it doesn't, it will be one of the most epic changes in a track with not one model showing this solution (that I know of).

I see Leslie is struggling with inner core issues because the eye can't maintain itself and that wrap-around arm fades like Isaac and many others did.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

While I disagree with a landfall that far south, it is likely we still see some affects in the US besides the swelling waves. I think Maine and even Eastern parts of MA and RI could see winds of 35 kts.

[rainstorm]

it looks like its going to have to get above 30n and out of the tropics to really get going

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Alright, I'm going off for the night, see y'all in the morning. By the way, here's a review of my forecast.

Track



I still believe Eastern parts of RI and MA as well As Central and east Maine may get tropical storm force winds. Good Night.

[Cape Bretoner]

Well, I'm afraid this bad boy is gonna fly directly over Cape Breton Island!

[CrazyC83]

How is this setup similar to Hurricane Juan in 2003?

[TYNI]

Well, I'm afraid this bad boy is gonna fly directly over Cape Breton Island!

I would monitor it over the week into the weekend. Plenty of time to prep. Too far out at the moment, and too many variables. What side of the island are you on?

[TYNI]

How is this setup similar to Hurricane Juan in 2003?

Not sure it is... but here's some facts on the setup leading to Juan's landfall

http://ec.gc.ca/ouragans-hurricanes/def ... 4A490D1C-1

[Cape Bretoner]

Well, I'm afraid this bad boy is gonna fly directly over Cape Breton Island!

I would monitor it over the week into the weekend. Plenty of time to prep. Too far out at the moment, and too many variables. What side of the island are you on?

I live in Sydney which is on the eastern side.

[Time_Zone]

Well, I'm afraid this bad boy is gonna fly directly over Cape Breton Island!

I would monitor it over the week into the weekend. Plenty of time to prep. Too far out at the moment, and too many variables. What side of the island are you on?

I'm also in Cape Breton, im used to these types of "scares" at least a couple times a year...they usually never turn out though so i'm not worried in the slightest right now.

Thankfully the water is so cold up here that it won't be able to support a major! Expecting this to be a cat-1 or less by time it makes its way this far north.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Well, I'm afraid this bad boy is gonna fly directly over Cape Breton Island!

I would monitor it over the week into the weekend. Plenty of time to prep. Too far out at the moment, and too many variables. What side of the island are you on?

I live in Sydney which is on the eastern side.

You could very well end up on the dirty side, or east side, of the system, perhaps even near the centre. You really need to watch this one very closely imo.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Cape Bretoner]

Well, I'm afraid this bad boy is gonna fly directly over Cape Breton Island!

I would monitor it over the week into the weekend. Plenty of time to prep. Too far out at the moment, and too many variables. What side of the island are you on?

I'm also in Cape Breton, im used to these types of "scares" at least a couple times a year...they usually never turn out though so i'm not worried in the slightest right now.

Thankfully the water is so cold up here that it won't be able to support a major! Expecting this to be a cat-1 or less by time it makes its way this far north.

Well I was living in Halifax when we were struck by Juan. That was the craziest weather experince I ever witnessed. The water is warmer this year than usual ,today's Ingonish Beach sea temperature is 17.4 °C. I imagine sydney harbour to be warmer yet. The water off Halifax the night Juan hit....18°C