SIO: CHANDA - Moderate Tropical Storm

[Chacor]

The WMO header codes for Meteo France Reunion are as follows:

AWIO20 FMEE - Cyclonic Activity and Significant Tropical Weather Bulletin
FKIO20 FMEE - ICAO Tropical Cyclone Advisory
WTIO20/21 FMEE - Tropical Cyclone Marine Warning (English/French)
WTIO30/31 FMEE - Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (English/French)

[P.K.]

WTIO30 FMEE 080049 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/5/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5
2.A POSITION 2012/01/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 41.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/08 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2012/01/09 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 43.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/01/09 12 UTC: 22.3 S / 43.7 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
48H: 2012/01/10 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 45.9 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
60H: 2012/01/10 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 48.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISTURBANCE
72H: 2012/01/11 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 50.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/12 00 UTC: 25.0 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
120H: 2012/01/13 00 UTC: 25.7 S / 49.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
CONVECTION MAINLY FED BY THE MONSOON FLOW HAS CLEARLY STRENGTHENED DURING THE LAST HOURS, COLDER,
AND ORGANISED INTO A CURVED BANDING .
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT,EFFICIENT MONSOON FLOW, GOOD U
PPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH A GOOD POLAR OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
NPW ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK, THEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO MAKE LANDF
ALL UP TO 24 HOURS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR.
ALL AVAILABLES MODELES MAKE COMING BACK OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN THE CENTRE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS, BU
T WITHIN MORE UNFAVOURABLES CONDITIONS, COOLER SST AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

[HURAKAN]

latest visible

[Chickenzilla]

This post is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such.It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data.It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the official services.
Deep convection is covering much of the Madagascar.
I have a feeling that TC 05S will be deadly.

[P.K.]

05R close to being named.

WTIO30 FMEE 081228

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/5/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5

2.A POSITION 2012/01/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 43.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 110




7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/09 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 43.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/01/09 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 44.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, INLAND
36H: 2012/01/10 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 44.9 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5 AND CI=2.5

THE MAIN CLUSTER REMAINS OVER SEA BUT A PERIPHERAL BAND IN THE
MONSOON FLOW CONVERGENCE EXTENDS FAR TO THE NORTHEAST AND CAUSES
HEAVY AND THUNDERY RAIN ON THE WESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE AND ALSO
FROM 14S TO 16S OVER THE ALL WIDTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
SYSTEM FEATURE HAS CLEARLY IMPROVE OVER THE LAST PAST 24 HOURS AND
SHOWS ON MULTISPECTRAL METEOSAT7 AND MSG2 IMAGERY A WELL CYCLONIC
CURVED BAND PATTERN EXTENDING MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
SYSTEM REMAINS SLIGHTLY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEARED AND THE LLCC IS
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE PRECISELY (EVEN WITH MICROWAVE).
08/0611Z ASCAT SWATH COVERS A LARGE WESTERN PART OF THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AND AGREE WITH THE RSMC 0600Z FIX, EVEN IN CENTRE
LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 30KT , EXCEPT SOME LIKELY RAIN-CONTAMINATED
40KT WINDS FLAGS.
FROM THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, POLAR LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS FORECAST TO
IMPROVE IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
BELT REBUILDING IN THE SOUTH. OTHER LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS (EQUATORWARD MONSOON INFLOW, OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT) ARE
ALREADY FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
SHEARED CONSTRAINT SHOULD WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS ALLOWING
THE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN BUT A NEW WESTERLY SHEARED CONSTRAINT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE TODAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST MAKING
LANDFALL AND THEN DISSIPATING OVERLAND.
WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION IS SHORT AND THE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED
EARLY MONDAY NEAR MORONDAVA.

0600Z SUGGESTED ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS NOW THE MOST LIKELY.
THE MAIN CENTRE OF THIS SYSTEM IS NO MORE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE BIG
ISLAND AND TO COME BACK OVERSEA. IT SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERLAND AS A
SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY NEARBY THE SOUTHEASTERN
MALAGASY COASTLINE FROM TUESDAY.=

[Reesie]

We now have a named storm

WTIO30 FMEE 081259 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/5/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHANDA)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 43.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/09 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 43.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/01/09 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 44.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, INLAND
36H: 2012/01/10 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 44.9 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5+ AND CI=2.5+
THE MAIN CLUSTER REMAINS OVER SEA BUT A PERIPHERAL BAND IN THE MONSOON FLOW CONVERGENCE EXTENDS FA
R TO THE NORTHEAST AND CAUSES HEAVY AND THUNDERY RAIN ON THE WESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE AND ALSO F
ROM 14S TO 16S OVER THE ALL WIDTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
SYSTEM FEATURE HAS CLEARLY IMPROVE OVER THE LAST PAST 24 HOURS AND SHOWS ON MULTISPECTRAL METEOSAT
7 AND MSG2 IMAGERY A WELL CYCLONIC CURVED BAND PATTERN EXTENDING MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-C
IRCLE.
SYSTEM REMAINS SLIGHTLY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEARED AND THE LLCC IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE PRECISELY
(EVEN WITH MICROWAVE).
08/0611Z ASCAT SWATH COVERS A LARGE WESTERN PART OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AGREE WITH THE RS
MC 0600Z FIX, EVEN IN CENTRE LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 30KT , EXCEPT SOME LIKELY RAIN-CONTAMINATED
40KT WINDS FLAGS.
FROM THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, POLAR LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE
REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BELT REBUILDING IN THE SOUTH. OTHER LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS (EQUATORWARD MONSOON INFLOW, OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT) ARE ALREADY FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER I
NTENSIFICATION.
SHEARED CONSTRAINT SHOULD WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN BUT A NEW
WESTERLY SHEARED CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE TODAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST MAKING
LANDFALL AND THEN DISSIPATING OVERLAND.
WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION IS SHORT AND THE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY NEAR MORONDAVA.
0600Z SUGGESTED ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS NOW THE MOST LIKELY.
THE MAIN CENTRE OF THIS SYSTEM IS NO MORE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND TO COME BACK OVERSE
A. IT SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERLAND AS A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY NEARBY THE SOUTH
EASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE FROM TUESDAY.

[Chickenzilla]

Chanda is now landfalling


The convection is bursting near the Chanda's LLCC

[Extratropical94]

To compare the 2010/11 and the 2011/12 seasons:

Chanda is system number five down there this season.

Last year's #5 was Bingiza, active Feb 9 - 18.
Last year's C-storm was Cherono (#7), active March 14 - 23.

This season we have a 5/3/1 (Depression/TS/TC) as of January 8th.

Last season it looked like this: 3/1/1

In December 2011, 4 systems formed or moved into Meteo France's AOR.
In December 2010, there wasn't a single system that formed. Only Abele (Nov 29-Dec 3) was active until moving out of the basin.

But:
Last season began on October 25th, this one about six weeks later, on December 5th.

[cycloneye]

Final Warning by JTWC

WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHANDA) WARNING NR 003//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHANDA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 20.3S 43.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 43.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.2S 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 44.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CHANDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS NOW APPROXIMATELY 25 NM FROM THE COAST
OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE
CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED
AS TC 05S INTERACTS WITH LAND. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON AGREEABLE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. TC
05S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER THE TERRAIN
OF MADAGASCAR. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 081800Z IS 11 FEET.//

[senorpepr]

Making landfall and falling apart...