SPAC: Tropical Disturbance 05F (Invest 91P)

[Chickenzilla]

NNE of New Zealand,E of Fiji


An infrared satellite image

[Extratropical94]

Should be this one:

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 08/0850 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F CENTRE [1001HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 22.0S 174.0W
AT 080600 UTC AND REMAINS SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR
IMAGERY.
ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
HAS NOT INCREASED OR DEEPENED MUCH. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
AN UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CENTRE IN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS
AROUND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLOWLY DEVELOPING THE
SYSTEM AND MOVING IT EASTWARD.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

Somehow, I don't agree with their coordinates.
I would say 19.5 S 171.5 W, a little bit NE of that ball of convection at 20.5 S 172.5 W

[Extratropical94]

Okay it seems that they meant the nearly non-existent cluster of clouds and tstorms with TD 03F. The main area of convection is now called TD 05F (17.5S 169.7W)

[Extratropical94]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD05F CENTRE [1000HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 19.5S
169.7W AT 090600 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST AROUND 28 TO 29 DEGREE CELCIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH THE LLCC
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN THE LAST
12 HOURS. TD05F LIES UNDER THE 250 HPA RIGDE AXIS WITH A GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UP TO 700 HPA. TD05F LIES UNDER A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP TD05F AND SLOWLY MOVE IT IN THE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TD05F TO DEVELOP IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

[Grifforzer]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 10/2256 UTC 2012 UTC

"NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES" ANALYZED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.