SIO: DANDO - Subtropical Depression (06R)

[Extratropical94]

No invest, no mention in JTWC's TWO.

Lower left corner:


0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/6/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6
2.A POSITION 2012/01/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1 S / 53.4 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: 440 SW: 330 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/12 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2012/01/12 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 52.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
36H: 2012/01/13 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 51.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2012/01/13 12 UTC: 24.8 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
60H: 2012/01/14 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 47.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
72H: 2012/01/14 12 UTC: 26.4 S / 44.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/15 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 38.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
120H: 2012/01/16 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 33.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE LOW MONITORED YESTERDAY SOUTH-EAST OFF MADAGASCAR(DISTINCT
FROM EX-CHANDA WHICH FILLED UP OVER MADAGASCAR YESTERDAY) HAS
DEEPEN DUE TO UPPER LEVEL FORCING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
LAST SATELLITE PICTURES AND ASCAT DATA AT 0510Z SHOW AN ASYMMETRIC LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN WITH WINDS BY THE ORDER OF 20/25KT REACHING
30KT , LOCALLY 35KT, IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, UP TO 240NM FROM THE
CENTRE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED AT MORE THAN 2° SOUTH-EAST OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE CONVERGENCE LINE EAST OF THE LOW OVER LA
REUNION ISLAND IS SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS MAURITIUS ISLAND AS ITS
INTENSITY IS WEAKENING.
ENERGETIC SUPPLY IS POOR WITH SST BY THE ORDER OF 26°.
MONSOON FLOW SUPPLIES THE NORTH-EASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GOOD IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SECTOR, ON THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE, SYSTEM BEING LOCATED ON THE
NORTH-EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH-EASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12HOURS,
AND WESTWARD BEYOND, OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRENGTHENING
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. SO SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR TOMORROW
THURSDAY, BUT MONSOON INFLOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM IS SHIFTING
WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
AGAIN AT THE END OF THE WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POOR FOR THE NEXT DAYS.
AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SOUTH-EAST
AND THEN WEST TRACK.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE DISTURBANCE
DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ANTICYCLONE.
CURRENT INTENSITY DOESN'T JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNING.

[Chickenzilla]

That disturbance was Chanda

[Chacor]

That disturbance was Chanda

Not quite...

THE LOW MONITORED YESTERDAY SOUTH-EAST OFF MADAGASCAR(DISTINCT
FROM EX-CHANDA WHICH FILLED UP OVER MADAGASCAR YESTERDAY)

[Grifforzer]

93S.INVEST from FNMOC/NRL

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc12/S ... .100pc.jpg

[Chacor]

"Upgraded" to a subtropical depression.

WTIO30 FMEE 121205
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/6/20112012
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 6
2.A POSITION 2012/01/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.7 S / 52.9 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: 460 SW: 280 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/13 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 50.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2012/01/13 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 48.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2012/01/14 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 47.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2012/01/14 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 44.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2012/01/15 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
LAST SATELLITE PICTURES AND ASCAT DATA AT 0449Z SHOW A WIDE LOW PRESSURE AREA WITHIN EXIST TEMPORA
LLY SEVERAL CENTRES. THERE IS AN ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN WITH WINDS BY THE ORDER
OF 15/20KT IN THE NORTH-WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 25/30KT IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, LOCALLY
35KT, UP TO 250NM FROM THE CENTRE.
SST ARE NEAR 26AoC.
THERE IS QUITE NO DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTRE.
MONSOON FLOW SUPPLIES THE NORTH-EASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GOOD IN
THE SOUTH-EASTERN SECTOR, ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS WEAK AS THE SYSTEM IS NOW LOCATED UNDER THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY,
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REBUILT TEMPORALLY NEAR THE CENTRE IN THE NEXT HOURS.
SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PR
ESSURES. SO SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT MONSOON INFLOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM IS SHIFTING TOWARDS MADA
GASCAR. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN UP TO TAU 48H.
AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS ARE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR WEST AND THEN WEST SOUTH-WEST TRACK WITH A VERY
SLOW FILLING UP.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE DISTURBANCE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ANTICYCLONE.
CURRENT INTENSITY DOESN'T JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNING.

[Chickenzilla]

Convection is bursting near LLCC as it moves westwards to Madagascar.


It is warm cored


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[Reesie]

Today's Reunion TWO.
Totally exposed remnant clockwise circulation of the Subtropical Depression nr6 South east of Madagascar :
Centred at 1000Z : near 24.2S/49.4E
Motion : West-North-Westwards at 12 kt
MSLP : 1000 hPa
Maximum Winds : 15/20kt in the northern semi-circle but 25/30 kt in the southern one (0608Z Ascat swath shows Near Gale Force Winds 30kt in the southern semi-circle within an half-crown extending from 150 km to 300 km radius from the centre). Deep convective activity organized along peripheral bands in the north-eastern quadrant and locally causes Thundery rain over Reunion's and Mauritius Islands during this afternoon and the following night.

Rain is expected to concern eastern and southern Malagasy coastline on Saturday 15. System is currently over marginal heat content (SST near 26°C) and undergoes a moderate southeasterly vertical windshear. Available NWP models are in good agreement to forecast system tracking south of Madagascar at less than 150km from the coastline within the next 24h to 36h without deepen significantly and system is expected to penetrate over the Mozambique Channel late tomorrow. This low is then expected to track westwards towards the southern Mozambique coastline and should make landfall late Monday 16 or early Tuesday 17. Before it will reach the Mozambique coastline, energetic potential become stronger over 27/28 °C SST and vertical windshear is expected to decrease on and after Monday 16. European ECMWF NWP model deep this low 36 hours before the expected landfall. It should then turn into Tropical Feature and intensify significantly. For the next 48 hours, potential for the development of a tropical depression remains poor and becomes fair to good from Monday 16.

[HURAKAN]

latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 264
WTIO30 FMEE 151231
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/6/20112012
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 6
2.A POSITION 2012/01/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.5 S / 38.8 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT
DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 60 SE: 240 SW: 370 NW: 60
34 KT NE: SE: 90 SW: 90 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/16 00 UTC: 26.4 S / 36.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2012/01/16 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 34.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/01/17 00 UTC: 24.4 S / 32.7 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
48H: 2012/01/17 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 32.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
LAST ANIMATED PICTURES DEPICT CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE CENTER IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
ASCAT DATA AT 0700Z SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THE WINDFIELD STRUCTURE IS ASSYMETRIC IN RELATION WITH
THE GRAIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15KT.
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, NWP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A
SLIGHT SLOWDOWN AND A TRACK CURVING NORTH-WESTWARD. ACTUALLY SYSTEM
IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURES CENTERED OVER SOUTH OF SOUTH-AFRICA. CONSEQUENTLY,
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF THE SOUTH
MOZAMBIQUE BY ABOUT 24H TAU.
ON ITS TRACK, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDTIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION AND SHOULD TAKE A TROPICAL STRUCTURE
BEFORE THE LANDFALL : FAVORABLE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT, GOOD EAST AND
SOUTH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH AN
POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
MOST OF THE AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE ITS LANDFALL THAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECASTED AT THE MAXIMUM STAGE OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM IN THE BAY
OF MAPUTO.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

track

[Reesie]

WTIO30 FMEE 151858

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/6/20112012
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (DANDO)

2.A POSITION 2012/01/15 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.0 S / 37.4 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SEVEN
DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 190 SW: 240 NW: 90
34 KT NE: SE: 150 SW: 150 NW:



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/16 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 34.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2012/01/16 18 UTC: 24.8 S / 33.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, INLAND
36H: 2012/01/17 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 32.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
48H: 2012/01/17 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 31.7 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION NR6 HAS BEEN NAMED DANDO AT 1500Z BY WEATHER
SERVICE OF MADAGASCAR.

SYSTEM STILL KEEPS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. WINDS FIELD IS
ASSYMMETRIC, CLOUDS TOPS ARE RELATIVELY WARM AND MAXIMUM WINDS RADIUS
IS LARGE.

LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT CONVECTION IS WRAPPING CLOSE TO THE
CENTER WITH A BAND CLOSER THAN ONE DEGREE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
GOOD WITH A WELL POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, NWP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURES CENTERED OVER SOUTH OF
SOUTH-AFRICA. CONSEQUENTLY, SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON
THE COAST OF THE SOUTH MOZAMBIQUE (IN THE VICINITY OF XAI-XAI) MONDAY
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY.

ON ITS TRACK, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDTIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION AND SHOULD TAKE A TROPICAL STRUCTURE
BEFORE THE LANDFALL : FAVOURABLE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT, WEAK VERTICAL
WIND-SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH PERSISTENCE OF A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, HEAVY RAINS MIGHT OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTH OF MOZAMBIQUE. AFTERNOON TOMORROW, STRONG WINDS (GUSTS OVER 100
KM/H) ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY SOUTH OF LANDFALL AREA.=

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 935
WTIO30 FMEE 160022
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/6/20112012
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (DANDO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/16 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.1 S / 36.3 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 190 SW: 240 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/16 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 34.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2012/01/17 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 33.6 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
36H: 2012/01/17 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 32.7 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
ANIMATED SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT SYSTEM INTENSITY SEEMS RELATIVELY STATIONARY FOR THE LAST 6
HOURS. CONVECTION IS STILL WRAPPING CLOSE TO THE CENTRE BUT REMAINS QUITE FLUCTUATING.
SYSTEM STILL KEEPS SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. 1934Z ASCAT SWATH SHOWS THAT WINDS FIELD IS STILL
ASYMMETRIC ENOUGH WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. CLOUDS TOPS ARE RELATIV
ELY WARM AND MAXIMUM WINDS RADIUS IS LARGE.
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERI
NG INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES CENTERED OVER SOUTH OF SOUTH-AFRICA. FORECAST
TRACK HAS BEEN MOVED NORTHWARD IN REGARD OF CURRENT MOVEMENT. CONSEQUENTLY, DANDO IS FORECAST TO M
AKE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF THE SOUTH MOZAMBIQUE BETWEEN CHIDENGUELE AND QUISSICO LATE IN THE DAY
.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SYSTEM HAS NOT REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY, BUT NOW INTENSIFICATION WINDOW I
S SHORT BEFORE LANDFALL.
THIS AFTERNOON, HEAVY RAINS MIGHT BEGIN TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH OF MOZAMBIQUE. STRONG WINDS (GUSTS
OVER 100 KM/H) ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY SOUTH OF LANDFALL AREA. HEAVY RAINS SHOULD PERSIST 24 TO 48 H
OURS.
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTXS21 PGTW 151730
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 27.6S 39.2E TO 26.1S 33.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 151130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 27.5S 38.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 161730Z.
//

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible - continued to become better organized until landfall

[P.K.]

For the record the earlier 06Z advisory, up to 45kts.

WTIO30 FMEE 160637

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/6/20112012
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (DANDO)

2.A POSITION 2012/01/16 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.0 S / 35.1 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :61 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 180 SW: 210 NW: 80
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 0



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/16 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 33.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, INLAND
24H: 2012/01/17 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 32.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, INLAND
36H: 2012/01/17 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 31.8 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
LATEST SAT AND MW FIX SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM TEMPORARILY ACCELERATED EARLIER THIS MORNING ON A DUE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK (315Ao) THAT REMINDS OF TC FAVIO TRACK IN 2007 A FEW DEGREES TO THE SOUTH. TIME OF LANDFALL IS NOW CLOSE AND SHOULD BE DONE WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS NEAR THE CITY OF QUISSICO (AN AREA RARELY AFFECTED DIRECTLY BY CYCLONE TRACKS)

DANDO STILL KEEPS SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS (CLOUDS TOPS ARE RELATIVELY WARM, FLUCTUATING WRAPPING CONVECTION). 37 GHZ MW IMAGERY STILL DEPICT AN EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL ORGANISATION WITH AN EYE LIKE FEATURE. WINDS STRUCTURE REMAINS HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC. ACCORDING TO ASCAT DATA OF LAST NIGHT AND CURRENT MOTION, IT IS ESTIMATED THAT STRONG WINDS IN THE 40/45 KT RANGE ARE PRESENT WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. MUCH WEAKER WINDS (BARELY 30 KT) SHOULD OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

CURRENTLY, MOST OF SIGNIFICANT ASSOCIATED WEATHER REMAINS OFFSHORE BUT IS VERY CLOSE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN XAI-XAI AND QUISSICO.
STRONG WINDS (GUSTS CLOSE TO 110-120 KM/H) ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY WEST OF LANDFALL AREA. HEAVY RAINS WITH 24HR RAIN RATE IN THE ORDER OF 100-150 MM ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE AFFECTED AREAS.