SIO: FUNSO - Tropical Cyclone (08S)

[HURAKAN]

going down fast

[HURAKAN]

TC FUNSO weakening as it moves away from the warm waters of the Mozambique Channel

[HURAKAN]

becoming extratropical fast

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 281221
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 44/8/20112012
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.7 S / 41.8 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 17 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :111 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 390 SW: 350 NW: 300
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 120
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/29 00 UTC: 32.2 S / 42.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
24H: 2012/01/29 12 UTC: 32.9 S / 45.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
36H: 2012/01/30 00 UTC: 33.2 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
48H: 2012/01/30 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
60H: 2012/01/31 00 UTC: 35.3 S / 50.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
72H: 2012/01/31 12 UTC: 36.4 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/01 12 UTC: 37.4 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
120H: 2012/02/02 12 UTC: 37.6 S / 56.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
FUNSO IS CURRENTLY BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL.
0600Z ASCAT SWATH SHOWS THAT STRONGEST WINDS EXTEND PROGRESSIVELY FAR
AWAY FROM THE CENTRE.
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ONLY EXIST NOW IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
FROM 40 TO 220 NM FROM THE CENTRE.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOWEVER FLARE UP ALOFT THE CENTRE MAINLY
WITHIN NIGHT PERIODS. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SYSTEM SHOULD KEEPS ON TRACKING RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS A POLAR TROUGH TRANSITING IN THE SOUTH.
THEN, IT IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARDS AND TO SLOW
DOWN IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDING BY THE
SOUTHWEST.
IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY FILL UP AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN
A POLAR TROUGH ON THURSDAY 02.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 281821

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 45/8/20112012
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FUNSO)

2.A POSITION 2012/01/28 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.8 S / 43.0 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :120 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 560 SW: 500 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SW: 210 NW: 210
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 120


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/29 06 UTC: 32.9 S / 45.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
24H: 2012/01/29 18 UTC: 33.6 S / 47.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
36H: 2012/01/30 06 UTC: 34.1 S / 49.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
48H: 2012/01/30 18 UTC: 35.0 S / 50.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
60H: 2012/01/31 06 UTC: 36.0 S / 51.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
72H: 2012/01/31 18 UTC: 36.9 S / 52.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/01 18 UTC: 37.7 S / 54.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
FUNSO IS STILL IN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS: HIGHLY
SHEARED DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO MORE THAN 110 NM FROM THE
CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR. LATEST TRMM PASS SUGGEST A STILL
EXPANDING RMW. AMSU-A BRIGTHNESS TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PROFILE FROM N18
PASS AT 1207Z SHOW A MUCH MORE SHALLOWER WARM CORE THAN 24 HOURS AGO
WITH SOME SLIGHT COLD ANOMALY AT THE TOP OF IT.

THE CENTRE PASSED BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z AT ABOUT 90 KM TO THE
EAST-NORTH-EAST OF BUOY 14545 (LOCATED INSIDE THE RMW). THE BUOY
REPORTED A MINIMAL PRESSURE OF 979.3 HPA AT 16Z. MSLP ESTIMATE IS
ADJUSTED ACCORDING TO THIS DATA.

UNTIL SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEPS ON TRACKING RATHER RAPIDLY
SOUTH-EASTWARD TOWARDS A POLAR TROUGH TRANSITING IN THE SOUTH.

THEN, IT IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARDS AND TO SLOW
DOWN IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDING BY THE
SOUTHWEST.
IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FILL UP AND SHOULD DISSIPATE.=