SIO: FUNSO - Tropical Cyclone (08S)

[DanieleItalyRm]

FUNSO CAT 4
Wind 120 Kts - 222 Km/h
Gust 145 Kts - 270 Km/h
Wave hight 32 Feet - 10 metri
look:
http://www.sat24.com/en/mg

[Crostorm]

Great image


bigger resolution
http://i.imgur.com/dWbrH.jpg

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 803
WTIO30 FMEE 250720 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/8/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/25 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.6 S / 38.7 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT
DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :13 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SW: 240 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 190 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/25 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/26 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 38.9 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/26 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 39.1 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/27 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 39.1 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/27 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 39.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/28 06 UTC: 26.9 S / 39.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/29 06 UTC: 31.7 S / 43.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2012/01/30 06 UTC: 35.3 S / 48.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5+ AND CI=5.0
SYSTEM ACHIEVED A FIRST YE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DURING LAST NIGHT
(CF. 24/2205Z TRMM PICTURE WITH THE CENTRAL CORE DISAPPEARING AND
FORMATION OF A 25 NM DIAMETER EYE)
ACCORDING TO THE LAST SATELLITE MULTISPECTRAL AND MW PICTURES, THE
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS NARROWING AGAIN. THE 25/0336Z TRMM
PICTURE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS ACTUALLY UNDERGOING A SECOND EYE
WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. CONSEQUENTLY SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE ACTUAL SHORT RANGE INTENSITY
FORECAST TAKES IT IN ACCOUNT.
SYSTEM IS TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRANSITING IN THE SOUTH AND THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXISTING IN ITS EAST.
THE POLAR TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ACHIEVE TO EVACUATE RAPIDLY.
THEN, UNDER THE ONLY STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE,
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS UNTIL DAY 2.
OVER THIS FORECAST TRACK , ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAVOURABLE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SUSTAINED BY A
BUILDING SECOND OUTFLOW CHANNEL POLEWARD THIS WEDNESDAY 25.
THIS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVOURABLE UP TO
FRIDAY 27.
WHEN THE SECOND EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL BE COMPLETE, FUNSO
SHOULD START A NEW INTENSIFYING PHASE.
ON AND AFTER 60 TAU, FUNSO IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A DEEP TROUGH TRANSITING IN
THE MID-LATITUDE.
AT THIS RANGE, SYSTEM WILL UNDERGOING BOTH COOLER SST AND AN
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IN THE SAME TIME.
FUNSO SHOULD WEAKEN AND THEN BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS SCENARIO.
ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, FUNSO IS SLOWLY TRACKING
AWAY FROM EUROPA ISLAND.
STRONG WINDS GUSTING AT ABOUT 100/110 KM/H SHOULD OCCUR TODAY AND THE
NEXT NIGHT.=
NNNN

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 JAN 2012 Time : 090000 UTC
Lat : 22:45:00 S Lon : 38:38:44 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 929.5mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : -5.2C Cloud Region Temp : -73.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 175km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.7 degrees

****************************************************

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

http://www.alanbanks.org.uk/IndianOcean_Met7.html

[Chickenzilla]

Mighty and beautiful.
Visible
Infrared
Water vapor
Executing a EWRC

[DanieleItalyRm]

Very beautiful!
with his power increased, increased also its diameter;
by from 160-200 km of the day 22-23 increased up to about 300 km today..

[Crostorm]

Its there any way to download animation from sat.24

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 251226
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/8/20112012
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.9 S / 38.8 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 947 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 310 SW: 350 NW: 300
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 240 SW: 260 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/26 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 38.9 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/26 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 39.0 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/27 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 38.9 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/27 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/28 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 39.0 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/28 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 40.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/29 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 44.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2012/01/30 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 51.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5
SYSTEM HAS STRENGTHEN DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH A VERY CLEARLYDEFINED AND WARMER EYE. IT HAS REACHED AGAIN THE STAGE OF INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.
SYSTEM IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IN ITS EAST.
THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN THE PILOT OF THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE,
UNDER THE HIGH TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AND WITH TWO OUTFLOW CHANNELS
(NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD). OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY
FAVORABLE NORTH OF 25S.
BY 36 TAU, SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ITS INTENSIFICATION WITH POSSIBLE
FLUCTUATIONS OF INTENSITY.
ON FRIDAY, THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO DISAPPEAR AND
SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN.
UP TO 48 TAU, FUNSO IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD AND
THEN SOUTH-EASTWARD WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DECREASE AND UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE, MODERATELY AT FIRST, AND MORE SHARPLY ON AND AFTER DAY 3.
FUNSO SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN MORE SHARPLY ON AND AFTER SATURDAY AND
BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE.
AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS SCENARIO.
ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, FUNSO IS SLOWLY TRACKING
AWAY FROM EUROPA ISLAND.
STRONG WINDS GUSTING AT ABOUT 90/100 KM/H SHOULD OCCUR TODAY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[HURAKAN]

impressive storm

[DanieleItalyRm]

Wow

[HURAKAN]

wow, look at this double eyewall!!

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 251911
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/8/20112012
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/25 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4 S / 39.1 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 946 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 240 SW: 300 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 190 SW: 150 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/26 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/26 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/27 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 39.1 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/27 18 UTC: 26.2 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/28 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/28 18 UTC: 29.0 S / 41.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/29 18 UTC: 33.7 S / 46.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2012/01/30 18 UTC: 35.5 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0- AND CI=5.5
A SECOND EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS ONGOING (CF. 1610Z SSMIS AND 1437Z
TRMM MW PICTURES). DT IS DOWN FROM 1430Z. CURRENT INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 90 KT IN RELATIONSHIP WITH DVORAK CONSTRAINTS, BUT
ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE CLEARLY MODIFIES STRUCTURE OF THESYSTEM. WITH TWO RMW (EXTERNAL RMW AT 35 NM). CONSEQUENTLY SYSTEM
SHOULD WEAKEN AGAIN DURING THE NEXT HOURS AND THE ACTUAL SHORT
RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST TAKES IT IN ACCOUNT.
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, SYSTEM MIGHT TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARD WITH
A QUITE SLOW SPEED UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
EXISTING IN ITS EAST. OVER THIS FORECAST TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVOURABLE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SUSTAINED BY A BUILDING SECOND OUTFLOW CHANNEL POLEWARD
THIS WEDNESDAY 25. SST WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE BUT REMAIN FAVOURABLE.
WHEN SECOND EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL BE COMPLETE, FUNSO
SHOULD START A NEW INTENSIFYING PHASE.
ON AND AFTER 48 TAU, FUNSO IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AGAIN SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARD THEN SOUTH-EASTWARD IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A DEEPER
TROUGH TRANSITING IN THE MID-LATITUDE.
AT THIS RANGE, SYSTEM WILL UNDERGOING BOTH COOLER SST AND A
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IN THE SAME TIME.
FUNSO SHOULD WEAKEN AND THEN BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.

[weatherwindow]

per wunderground...europa island...approx 150 nm sse of Funso..10min winds north 48....tlhanks, rich

[Chacor]

Down to just a TC, expected to restrengthen...
949
WTIO30 FMEE 260056
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/8/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/26 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.6 S / 39.1 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 956 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 300
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 170 SW: 190 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/26 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 39.1 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/27 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/27 12 UTC: 25.9 S / 39.1 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/28 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 39.4 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/28 12 UTC: 28.5 S / 40.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/29 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 42.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/30 00 UTC: 34.8 S / 48.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2012/01/31 00 UTC: 37.6 S / 56.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0 AND CI=5.0
2109Z 85 GHZ TRMM MW PICTURES SHOWS THAT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS NOT ACHIEVED. EXTERNAL RING
(25 NM RADIUS) IS APPROACHING TO INTERNAL RING (12 NM) THAT IS LESS WELL-DEFINED. CONSEQUENTLY, SY
STEM HAS CLEARLY WEAKENED. AVERAGE DT ON 6 HOURS IS 4.0. CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED AT
80 KT.
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, SYSTEM MIGHT TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARD WITH A QUITE SLOW SPEED UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXISTING IN ITS EAST. OVER THIS FORECAST TRACK, ENVIRONM
ENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVOURABLE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SST WILL SLIGHTLY
DECREASE BUT REMAIN FAVOURABLE. WHEN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL BE COMPLETE, FUNSO SHOULD STAR
T A NEW INTENSIFYING PHASE, BUT AN UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
ON AND AFTER 36 TAU, FUNSO IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AGAIN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THEN SOUTH-EASTWARD
IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A DEEP TROUGH TRANSITING IN THE MID-LATITUDE.
AT THIS RANGE, SYSTEM WILL UNDERGOING MORE AND MORE COOLER SST AND A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY VERTIC
AL WINDSHEAR IN THE SAME TIME.
FUNSO SHOULD WEAKEN AND THEN BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.

[HURAKAN]

inner eyewall weakening

[MGC]

Classic example of an EWRC.....MGC

[DanieleItalyRm]

Classic example of an EWRC.....MGC? I do not understand..
The aye is very big: