SIO: FUNSO - Tropical Cyclone (08S)

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[Chacor]

Not looking great.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

convection increasing

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 220649
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/8/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/22 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 38.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 952 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/22 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 39.1 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/23 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/23 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 39.7 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/24 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/24 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/25 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 38.0 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/26 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 38.1 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/27 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 37.8 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5 AND CI=5.0-
FUNSO IS ALWAYS QUITE STATIONARY, BUT IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT HOURS TO GO SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE COA
ST EASTWARD AND THEN INTERACTION OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE LAND IS LESSENING. CONVECTION IS RESTRUCTU
RING ABOVE THE CENTRE WITH A SMALL CDO AND AN EYE IN MICRO-WAVES DATA (SSMIS 0243) AND THE BEGINI
NG OF AN HOT SPOT ON SATELITE IMAGERY.
AT 24 TO 36 TAU, FUNSO IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
OF MID-TROPOSPHERE AND SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY EAST TO SOUTH-EASTWARD.
THEN, UP TO 48 TAU, A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE TRACK SHOULD RECURVE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTWARD.
BEYOND (DAY 4 AND DAY 5) A MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE REBUILT WEST OF THE SYSTEM, AND THE SYSTEM SHOUL
D SLOW DOWN.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS . UPPER LEVEL DIVERGEN
CE IS GOOD EQUATORWARD. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GOOD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE J+2 WITH THE BUILDING OF A TEMPORALY SECOND OUTFLOW CHANNEL
POLEWARD.
FUNSO ENCOUNTERS AGAIN HIGH ENERGETIC POTENTIAL SST (29AoC) AS IT IS GOING AWAY FROM THE COAST AND
IT SHOULD DEEPEN REGULARLY.AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AGAIN AS IT WI
LL TRACK OVER LESS ENERGETIQUE WATER, AND WITH A SMALL NORTH NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT.
INHABITANTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHANNEL (INCLUDING EUROPA ISLAND AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN COA
STS OF MADAGASCAR) SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 221209
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/8/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 38.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/D 0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 40 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/23 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 39.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/23 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/24 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 39.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/24 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 38.6 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/25 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 38.1 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/25 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/26 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 38.1 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/27 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 38.0 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5 AND CI=5.0- FUNSO IS BEGINING TO GO SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE COAST EASTWARD AND THEN
INTERACTION OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE LAND IS LESSENING. CONVECTION IS
RESTRUCTURING ABOVE THE CENTRE WITH A BANDING EYE ON SATELITE
IMAGERY.
AT 24 TO 36 TAU, FUNSO IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE OF MID-TROPOSPHERE AND SHOULD TRACK
SLOWLY EAST TO SOUTH-EASTWARD.
THEN, UP TO 48 TAU, A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
TRACK SHOULD RECURVE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD.
BEYOND (DAY 4 AND DAY 5) A MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE REBUILT WEST OF THE
SYSTEM, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE
AXIS . UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD EQUATORWARD. UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GOOD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE J+2 WITH THE BUILDING OF A SECOND
OUTFLOW CHANNEL POLEWARD.
FUNSO ENCOUNTERS AGAIN HIGH ENERGETIC POTENTIAL SST (29°C) AS IT IS GOING
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND IT SHOULD DEEPEN REGULARLY.AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AGAIN AS IT WILL TRACK OVER
LESS ENERGETIQUE WATER, AND WITH A SMALL NORTH NORTHEASTERLY UPPER
LEVEL CONSTRAINT.
INHABITANTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHANNEL (INCLUDING EUROPA
ISLAND AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN COASTS OF MADAGASCAR) SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[HURAKAN]

Latest track

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 221854
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/8/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 38.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/S 0.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :13 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SW: 60 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 40 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/23 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 39.6 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/23 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 39.6 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/24 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 39.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/24 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 38.2 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/25 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/25 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/26 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 38.1 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/27 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 38.3 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5+ AND CI=5.0- FUNSO CONTINUES TO GO SLOWLY EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST. DVORAK
ANALYSIS IS DIFFICULT DUE TO VERY SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. DEEP
CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE CENTRE HAS CLEARLY ENHANCED WITH VERY COLD
CLOUD TOPS. 85 GHZ SSMIS MW AT 1509Z SHOWS A BANDING EYE.
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, FUNSO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE OF MID-TROPOSPHERE
AND SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD THEN SOUTH-EASTWARD.
BEYOND, A RIDGE SHOULD REBUILD IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE TRACK
MIGHT RECURVE SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTH-WESTWARD.
AT THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD (DAY 4 AND DAY 5), A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
REBUILT WEST OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS MIGHT
PROVIDE DECELERATION ON SOUTHWARD TRACK.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH A RIDGE
AXIS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD EQUATORWARD. UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GOOD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM J+2 WITH THE BUILDING OF A
SECOND OUTFLOW CHANNEL POLEWARD.
FUNSO ENCOUNTERS AGAIN HIGH ENERGETIC POTENTIAL SST (29 DEGREES C) AS IT
IS GOING AWAY FROM THE COAST AND IT SHOULD REGULARLY INTENSIFY. AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AGAIN AS IT WILL
TRACK OVER LESS WARM WATERS AND STRENGTHENING OF A NORTHNORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT.
INHABITANTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHANNEL (INCLUDING EUROPA
ISLAND AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN COASTS OF MADAGASCAR) SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[HURAKAN]

FUNSO 08S T5.0/5.0 23/0000Z Southwest Indian



Intensifying as it moves away from Mozambique

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 230054
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/8/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/23 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 39.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/S 0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :13 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/23 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 39.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/24 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 39.1 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/24 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 38.6 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/25 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 38.1 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/25 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 38.0 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/26 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 38.1 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/27 00 UTC: 24.4 S / 38.4 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/28 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 38.9 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5+ AND CI=5.0- FUNSO CONTINUES TO GO SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. DEEP CONVECTION
HAS WELL CONSOLIDATED CLOSE TO THE CENTRE WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS
AND A WARM POINT REAPPEARS ON IR ENHANCED PICTURES. SYSTEM SIZE IS VERY
SMALL AND MSLP HAS BEEN REVISED HIGHER. CI HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 5.0- IN
RELATIONSHIP WITH EVIDENT START OF RE-INTENSIFICATION. WE CAN SEE
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FAR AWAY EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS, FUNSO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE OF MID-TROPOSPHERE SITUATED IN
THE NORTH-EAST, AND SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH-EASTWARD.
BEYOND, A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE TRACK MIGHT
RECURVE SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTH-WESTWARD. FROM J+3, A MIDTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE REBUILTS WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND A TROUGH QUICKLY
TRANSITS SOUTH. BOTH CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS MIGHT PROVIDE
DECELERATION ON SOUTHWARD TRACK. AN UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THE FINAL
TRACK AND A WESTWARD RECURVE IS NOT TOTALLY EXCLUDED (LIKE ECMWF
FORECAST) THAT SHOULD BRING FUNSO TOWARD THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS.
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GOOD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FUNSO ENCOUNTERS AGAIN HIGH ENERGETIC POTENTIAL SST
(29 DEGREES C) AND IT SHOULD REGULARLY INTENSIFY. AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AGAIN AS IT WILL TRACK OVER
LESS WARM WATERS BY GOING DOWN TOWARD THE SOUTH.
INHABITANTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHANNEL (INCLUDING EUROPA
ISLAND) SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[DanieleItalyRm]

I don't think.. this storm is small like many channel mozambique tropical storm. The real storm center is approx 200km in diameter, you don't have consider the spiral band. Belonging to some exceptions, I have seen in this area the smallest tropical cyclones (Favio, Bondo, Clovis etc.).

I don't think.. this storm is small like many channel mozambique tropical storm. The real storm center is approx 200km in diameter, you don't have consider the spiral band. Belonging to some exceptions, I have seen in this area the smallest tropical cyclones (Favio, Bondo, Clovis etc.).

None of them formed in the Mozambique Channel.
Bondo and Clovis
didn't even enter in the Mozambique Channel as a tropical cylone,but Bondo entered as a remnant.
Favio did enter the Mozambique Channel,but it formed outside it and was small even before the entering.BTW,it enlarged after the entering.
Some images of Favio before it entered the Mozambique Channel.It was small,wasn't it?

I have expressed myself badly, I mean generally Madagascar and Mozambique cyclones.. These are often very small, not my opinion, it is a fact (not rule, but there have been many small cyclones here).
Today it is still smaller. The clouds bands widespread have large,but the real storm be 150 km in diameter. I really like these small cyclones.
Probably FUNSO enlarge in dimension in the next hours.
Followed FUNSO by SAT24:
http://www.sat24.com/en/mg

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 230635
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/8/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/23 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 39.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :11 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 80
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/23 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/24 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/24 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 38.3 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/25 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 37.8 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/25 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 37.8 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/26 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 38.0 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/27 06 UTC: 25.6 S / 38.9 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/28 06 UTC: 28.7 S / 40.9 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0 AND CI=5.0
FUNSO TRACKS AWAY FROM MOZAMBICANS COASTLINE AND INTENSIFIES AGAIN
AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
INNER CORE REMAINS VERY SMALL WITH LESS THAN 40 NM DIAMETER (REFER TO
SSMIS-F17 0230Z) WITH A PINHOLE EYE AND A SECOND EXTERNAL CONVECTIVE
BAND (OPENED SOUTHWESTWARD) FROM 40 TO 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS, FUNSO KEEPS ON UNEDRGOING THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD, AND
SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH-EASTWARDS.
BEYOND, A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE TRACK MIGHT
RECURVE SOUTHWARDS AND THEN SOUTH-WESTWARDS.
FROM J+3, A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE REBUILTS WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND A
TROUGH QUICKLY TRANSITS SOUTH. BOTH CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS
MIGHT PROVIDE DECELERATION ON SOUTHWARD TRACK.
AN STRONG UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THE FINAL TRACK (REFER TO UNCERTAINTY
CONE) AND A WESTWARD RECURVE IS NOT TOTALLY EXCLUDED (LIKE ECMWF
FORECAST AND ITS ENSEMBLE) THAT SHOULD STEER FUNSO TOWARD THE
MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINES WITH A POSSIBLE LANDFALL IN THE REGION OF
INHAMBANE ON FRIDAY 27.
CURRENT RSMC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT COMPARE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONES WAITING FOR FUTURE NWP MODELS RUNS.
OVER THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS FAVOURABLE FOR
REGULAR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION UP TO TAU96 ENCOUNTERING AGAIN HIGH
ENERGETIC POTENTIAL SST (29 DEGREES C) AND IT SHOULD REGULARLY
INTENSIFY.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AGAIN AS IT
WILL TRACK OVER LESS WARM WATERS BY SHIFING DOWN TOWARD THE SOUTH.
INHABITANTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHANNEL (INCLUDING EUROPA
ISLAND) SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[Chacor]

Up to 85 kt / 954 hPa at 12z, still a TC and just short of ITC.

[Chickenzilla]

Funso's windfield

2 satellite images of Funso

[DanieleItalyRm]

FUNSO CAT 3:
Wind 100 kt
Gust 125 kt
Expected CAT 4:
wind 120kt
gust 145 kt
waves hight 34 feet

[Chickenzilla]

WOW!Cloud tops colder than -80 C surround entirely the small eye!

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 231845 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/8/20112012
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 39.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :9 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 80
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/24 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/24 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/25 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/25 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 38.3 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/26 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 38.4 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/26 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 38.6 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/27 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/28 18 UTC: 29.2 S / 41.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM HAS CLEARLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS, WITH AN EYE
BETTER DEFINED, ALWAYS VERY SMALL, BUT COOLER, WITHIN A COLDER CDO. THE
SYSTEM SHOW ALWAYS AN INNER CORE VERY SMALL WITH LESS THAN 60 NM
DIAMETER (REFER TO SSMIS 1504Z) WITH A CURVED BAND MORE THAN AN HALFTURN.
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, FUNSO KEEPS ON UNDERGOING THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL MID-LEVEL HIGHS PROLONGATED BY A
RIDGE IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING
SOUTHWARDS.
OVER THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS FAVOURABLE FOR
REGULAR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION UP TO TAU84 OVER HIGH HEAT CONTENT
WATERS.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDERGOING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING MIDLEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR.
IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER LESS WARM WATERS AND TO WEAKEN
UNDERGOING A STRENGHTENING WESTERLY WINDSHEAR.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST ALL THE
TRACKS OVERSEA IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CHANNEL.
THE PROBABILITY FOR A LANDFALL AT SHORT OR MEDIUM RANGE APPEARS POOR
NOW.
INHABITANTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHANNEL (INCLUDING EUROPA
ISLAND) SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[weatherwindow]

NRL/JTWC is currently carrying Funso at 115 kts and forecasting 140 kts at tau 24 hrs....i am sure the discrepancy is due to the use of 10 min averages by RSMC Reunion.....rich

[Macrocane]

WTXS32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 19.2S 39.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 39.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.6S 39.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 22.0S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.9S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 23.8S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 26.1S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 28.5S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 31.7S 43.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 39.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (FUNSO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN APPROXIMATELY 12NM WIDE EYE AS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO RE-
INTENSIFY. A 231504Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS STRONG BANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND RELATIVELY THINNER, MULTIPLE BANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC 08S HAS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION WITH MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 5-10
KNOTS, VERY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AS
DEPICTED IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ARE BETWEEN 28 TO
29 DEGREES CELSIUS WITH A POCKET OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
CURRENTLY UNDER THE LLCC. TC FUNSO IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWARDS BY
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THIS STEERING PATH
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE
EXTREMELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. BY TAU 48, TC 08S SHOULD BEGIN TO RE-
CURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM
THE WEST INFLUENCES THE TRACK MOTION BY CAUSING A WEAKNESS IN THE
STEERING RIDGE. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES BY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
INCREASE AND THEREFORE BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAUS 96-120,
TC FUNSO SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BECOMES
ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS FORECAST DIFFERS FROM THE
PREVIOUS DUE TO THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO AND EVENTUAL EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION. ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOW BEGUN TO COME IN-LINE
WITH THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN RE-CURVE THE SYSTEM
MORE QUICKLY INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH SHORTLY. THIS FORECAST LIES IN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND MODEL
CONSENSUS AND PORTRAYS THE SLOWER RE-CURVE SCENARIO PRODUCED BY THE
SECOND, DEEPER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
231800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.//
NNNN