SIO: FUNSO - Tropical Cyclone (08S)

[DanieleItalyRm]

look.. this symbol " § " appears in eye

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

great page
http://www.weatherphotos.co.za/index2.html

[HURAKAN]

large eye

[HURAKAN]

infrared image

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 261233 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/8/20112012
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/26 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 5 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.6 S / 39.5 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 948 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 200 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 170
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/27 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 39.4 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/27 12 UTC: 25.9 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/28 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 39.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/01/28 12 UTC: 28.9 S / 41.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/01/29 00 UTC: 31.2 S / 42.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
72H: 2012/01/29 12 UTC: 33.3 S / 44.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/30 12 UTC: 35.5 S / 49.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2012/01/31 12 UTC: 38.0 S / 55.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BIG EYE, BECOMING BETTER DEFINED, WITHIN A
COLDER CDO, THE SYSTEM IS NOW INTENSIFYING.
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVOURABLE WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF AN
EFFICIENT POLAR OUTFLOW DURING THE NEXT 24/36 HOURS, BUT LACK OFENERGETIC POTENTIAL OF SST SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THIS TAU.
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, SYSTEM MIGHT TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARD WITH
A QUITE SLOW SPEED UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
EXISTING IN ITS EAST. OVER THIS FORECAST TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVOURABLE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.
ON AND AFTER 36 TAU, FUNSO IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AGAIN SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARD THEN SOUTH-EASTWARD IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A DEEP
TROUGH TRANSITING IN THE MID-LATITUDE.
AT THIS RANGE, SYSTEM WILL FIRST UNDERGOING MORE AND MORE COOLER SST
THEN A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
CONDITIONS MORE AND MORE UNFAVOURABLE.
FUNSO SHOULD WEAKEN AND THEN BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.

[Chickenzilla]

Funso has very large eye.



Currently a Category 3 per SSHS.

[Macrocane]

Looks like has some annular characterisitcs with that large eye, little banding and rather small convective core, yeah I said the A word

[Crostorm]

[dexterlabio]

WOW that's a big eye. Hmmm, and it underwent a successful EWRC. This is one interesting system.

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

recent microwave

[Chacor]

Still an Intense TC:

WTIO30 FMEE 270038

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 37/8/20112012
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)

2.A POSITION 2012/01/27 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 5 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.4 S / 39.5 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 948 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :52 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 440 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 350 NW: 300
48 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 170
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/27 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/28 00 UTC: 27.4 S / 40.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/01/28 12 UTC: 28.9 S / 41.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/01/29 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 42.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/01/29 12 UTC: 33.2 S / 45.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/01/30 00 UTC: 35.1 S / 48.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/31 00 UTC: 37.8 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2012/02/01 00 UTC: 39.1 S / 58.5 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5+ AND CI=5.5

DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS THE EYE HAS A LITTLE SHRUNK AND THE CDO HAS WARMED. THE 26/20.14 TRMM MW PICTURE DEPICTS A SLIGHT EROSION OF THE EYEWALL IN THE WESTERN SECTOR. THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE SYSTEM IS CONFIRMED.

SYSTEM IS STILL TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IN ITS EAST. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TRACK THAT SHOULD RECURVE SOUTH-EASTWARD AFTER DAY 2. INDEED FUNSO IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A DEEP MID-LATITUDES TROUGH AT TAU 48. SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE BY TAU 24.

SST ARE CURRENTLY BY THE ORDER OF 26,5AoC AND SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNDER THE CYCLONE WHICH IS MOVING OVER AN AREA OF IMPORTANT GRADIENT OF SST.

MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THIS FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO BECOME STRONG ON SATURDAY.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO DEGRADE SHARPLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM WOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, AND SHOULD BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY DAY 3/DAY 4.

[HURAKAN]

Great satellite image of this system

[Chickenzilla]

Funso is now a Category 3 per SSHS.Expected to weaken soon.
Strangely,it looks better on infrared

[HURAKAN]

weakening

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 271238
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 39/8/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.4 S / 40.0 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 280 SW: 480 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 220 SW: 260 NW: 260
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/28 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 40.7 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/28 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 42.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/01/29 00 UTC: 32.2 S / 43.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/01/29 12 UTC: 33.9 S / 46.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
60H: 2012/01/30 00 UTC: 35.0 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
72H: 2012/01/30 12 UTC: 35.8 S / 50.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/31 12 UTC: 36.9 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0- AND CI=5.0-
DESPITE ALL SAID EARLIER ABOUT THE ONGOING WEAKENING TREND OF FUNSO,
THE SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME CLEAR SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION SINCE 08Z WITH
COLDER CLOUDS TOPS AND A RADIUS OF MAX WINDS THAT IS SHRINKING ON
CLASSICAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. PREVIOUS EXTIMATE AT 80 KT WAS PROBABLY A
LITTLE BIT GENEROUS AND THE CURRENT ASSESSMENT AT 75 KT SHOULD BE
CONSIDERED AS A STEADY INTENSITY BETWEEN THE STRONG WEAKENING TRENDOF THIS MORNING AND THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND.
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPEED UP GRADUALLY TOWARDS THE
SOUTHSOUTHEAST CAUGHT WITHIN THE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT
EXISTS BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EASTNORTH-EAST OF FUNSO AND AN APPROACHING MID LAT LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST.
NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TRACK THAT SHOULD RECURVE
SOUTH-EASTWARDS SUNDAY.
FUNSO IS LEAVING FAVOURABLE SST. THE ONGOING INTENSIFICATION TREND
SHOULD BE TEMPORARILY ... THE WESTNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS STILL
FORECAST TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE TONIGHT.
WITHIN DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
SHORTLY BE ON A WEAKENING TREND. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE ETT PROCESS
SHOULD START SATURDAY NIGHT AND BE COMPLETED BEFORE MONDAY.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY FUNSO ARE AFFECTING LARGE PORTIONS OF
SOUTH MOZAMBIQUE, NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AFRICA AND SOUTHWESTERN
COASTAL AREAS. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN ALL
AREAS SATURDAY.

[Ptarmigan]

Quite an impressive storm. Weather Underground calls Funso Super Typhoon Funso, even though that is for the West Pacific. The name Funso reminds me of the toy from The Simpsons, Funzo.

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 280027
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 42/8/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/28 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.4 S / 40.9 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 966 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :50 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 280 SW: 480 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 220 SW: 260 NW: 280
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/28 12 UTC: 29.7 S / 42.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/01/29 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 44.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/01/29 12 UTC: 33.2 S / 45.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
48H: 2012/01/30 00 UTC: 34.1 S / 49.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
60H: 2012/01/30 12 UTC: 35.5 S / 50.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
72H: 2012/01/31 00 UTC: 36.3 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/01 00 UTC: 38.0 S / 54.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0 AND CI=4.5+.
THE EYE HAS COMPLETELY DISAPPEARED DURING THE LAST HOURS, AND THE
SYSTEM IS GOING INTO SHEARED PATTERN TRANSITION.
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPEED UP GRADUALLY TOWARDS THE
SOUTHSOUTHEAST CAUGHT WITHIN THE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THATEXISTS BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EASTNORTH-EAST OF FUNSO AND AN APPROACHING MID LAT LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST.
NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TRACK THAT SHOULD RECURVE
SOUTH-EASTWARDS SUNDAY.
FUNSO IS LEAVING FAVOURABLE SST, AND THE MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL SOON BECOME STRONGER. WITHIN DETERIORATING
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD DEFINITIVELY BE ON A
WEAKENING TREND. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE COMPLETED
BEFORE MONDAY.