ZCZC 973
WTIO30 FMEE 190654
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/7/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ETHEL)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/19 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 67.0 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/19 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 65.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/01/20 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 64.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/01/20 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 63.7 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/21 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 63.0 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/21 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 62.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/01/22 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 62.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/23 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 66.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2012/01/24 06 UTC: 38.6 S / 83.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
AN IRREGULAR 2 DEGREES DIAMETER CDO WITH VERY COLD TOP ASSOCIATED HAS MAINTAINED OVER THE SYSTEM S
INCE 21Z. MW IMAGERY SHOW AN IMPROVE ORGANISATION OF THE LLCC WITH A DEVELOPPING SMALL INNER CORE.
MOST AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS THEN A SOUTHWARDS RECURVING MOTION. ON THIS TRACK THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OVER OR NEAR RODRIG
UES ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS, ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS, SYSTEM TAKES CURRENTLY ALWAYS BENEFIT FROM A GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNEL POLEWARD WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DAY AFTER DAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CLOSE TO IT SPEAK INTENSITY AS IT PASSED
NEAR RODRIGUES.
VERTICAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY THE SYSTEM AND MAKE IT LOSSE TROP
ICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
NNNN
SIO: ETHEL - Extratropical Depression (07S)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
ZCZC 762
WTIO30 FMEE 191257
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/7/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ETHEL)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 66.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/20 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 65.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/01/20 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 64.6 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/21 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 63.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/21 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/01/22 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 62.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/01/22 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/23 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 65.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2012/01/24 12 UTC: 30.2 S / 71.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5-
AFTER A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN DURING MIDDAY, THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW IMPRO
VING AGAIN. AMSUB MW IMAGERY ALSO SUGGEST TAHT THE SMALL INNER CORE STRUCTURE IS STILL IMPROVING.
ETHEL MADE A HARP SOUTHSOUTHWEST TURN ... A LITTLE BIT SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. CONSEQUENT
LY, THE FORECAST TRACK MOVED EASTWARDS IN AGRREMENT WITH LATEST ECMWF OUTPUT.
MOST AVAILABLE NWP MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A SOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTHSOUTHWESTW
ARDS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS THEN A SOUTHWARDS RECURVING MOTION. ON THIS TRACK THE SYSTEM SHOUL
D MOVE OVER OR NEAR RODRIGUES ISLAND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS, ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS, SYSTEM TAKES CURRENTLY ALWAYS BENEFIT FROM A GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNEL POLEWARD WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DAY AFTER DAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CLOSE TO IT SPEAK INTENSITY AS IT PASSED
NEAR RODRIGUES.
VERTICAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR, COOLER SST AND INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERLIES IS FORECAST TO WE
AKEN THE SYSTEM AND MAKE IT LOOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
NNNN
WTIO30 FMEE 191257
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/7/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ETHEL)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 66.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/20 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 65.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/01/20 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 64.6 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/21 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 63.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/21 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/01/22 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 62.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/01/22 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/23 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 65.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2012/01/24 12 UTC: 30.2 S / 71.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5-
AFTER A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN DURING MIDDAY, THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW IMPRO
VING AGAIN. AMSUB MW IMAGERY ALSO SUGGEST TAHT THE SMALL INNER CORE STRUCTURE IS STILL IMPROVING.
ETHEL MADE A HARP SOUTHSOUTHWEST TURN ... A LITTLE BIT SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. CONSEQUENT
LY, THE FORECAST TRACK MOVED EASTWARDS IN AGRREMENT WITH LATEST ECMWF OUTPUT.
MOST AVAILABLE NWP MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A SOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTHSOUTHWESTW
ARDS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS THEN A SOUTHWARDS RECURVING MOTION. ON THIS TRACK THE SYSTEM SHOUL
D MOVE OVER OR NEAR RODRIGUES ISLAND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS, ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS, SYSTEM TAKES CURRENTLY ALWAYS BENEFIT FROM A GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNEL POLEWARD WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DAY AFTER DAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CLOSE TO IT SPEAK INTENSITY AS IT PASSED
NEAR RODRIGUES.
VERTICAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR, COOLER SST AND INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERLIES IS FORECAST TO WE
AKEN THE SYSTEM AND MAKE IT LOOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
NNNN
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Upgraded to STS.
WTIO30 FMEE 191849
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/7/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ETHEL)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/19 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 65.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :24 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/20 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 64.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/01/20 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 64.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/21 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 63.3 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/21 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/01/22 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 62.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/01/22 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 62.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/23 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 66.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2012/01/24 18 UTC: 30.0 S / 73.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5+
1618Z F18 MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE IMPROVING OF SATELLITE FEATURE.
ETHEL KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING.
MOST AVAILABLE NWP MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A
SOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS
THEN A SOUTHWARDS RECURVING MOTION. ON THIS TRACK THE SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE OVER OR NEAR RODRIGUES ISLAND FRIDAY LATE OR SATURDAY EARLY.
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS, ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER FAVOURABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, SYSTEM TAKES CURRENTLY
ALWAYS BENEFIT FROM A GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNEL POLEWARD WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DAY AFTER DAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CLOSE TO ITS PEAK
INTENSITY AS IT PASSED NEAR RODRIGUES.
VERTICAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR, COOLER SST AND INTERACTION WITH
THE WESTERLIES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND MAKE IT LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WTIO30 FMEE 191849
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/7/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ETHEL)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/19 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 65.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :24 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/20 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 64.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/01/20 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 64.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/21 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 63.3 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/21 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/01/22 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 62.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/01/22 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 62.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/23 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 66.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2012/01/24 18 UTC: 30.0 S / 73.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5+
1618Z F18 MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE IMPROVING OF SATELLITE FEATURE.
ETHEL KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING.
MOST AVAILABLE NWP MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A
SOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS
THEN A SOUTHWARDS RECURVING MOTION. ON THIS TRACK THE SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE OVER OR NEAR RODRIGUES ISLAND FRIDAY LATE OR SATURDAY EARLY.
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS, ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER FAVOURABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, SYSTEM TAKES CURRENTLY
ALWAYS BENEFIT FROM A GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNEL POLEWARD WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DAY AFTER DAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CLOSE TO ITS PEAK
INTENSITY AS IT PASSED NEAR RODRIGUES.
VERTICAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR, COOLER SST AND INTERACTION WITH
THE WESTERLIES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND MAKE IT LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
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WTIO30 FMEE 200055
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/7/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ETHEL)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/20 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 65.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/20 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 64.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/01/21 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 63.3 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/21 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 62.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/22 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/01/22 12 UTC: 25.9 S / 62.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/01/23 00 UTC: 29.3 S / 63.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/24 00 UTC: 32.1 S / 71.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2012/01/25 00 UTC: 34.7 S / 84.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5+
MOST AVAILABLE NWP MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A SOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS THEN A SOUTHWARDS RECURVING MOTION. ON THIS TRACK THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OVER OR NEAR RODRIGUES ISLAND FRIDAY LATE OR SATURDAY EARLY.
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, SYSTEM TAKES CURRENTLY ALWAYS BENEFIT FROM A GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNEL POLEWARD WHICH IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DAY AFTER DAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CLOSE TO ITS PEAK OF INTENSITY AS IT PASSED NEAR RODRIGUES.
VERTICAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR, COOLER SST AND INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERLIES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND MAKE IT LOOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/7/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ETHEL)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/20 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 65.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/20 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 64.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/01/21 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 63.3 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/21 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 62.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/22 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/01/22 12 UTC: 25.9 S / 62.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/01/23 00 UTC: 29.3 S / 63.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/24 00 UTC: 32.1 S / 71.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2012/01/25 00 UTC: 34.7 S / 84.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5+
MOST AVAILABLE NWP MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A SOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS THEN A SOUTHWARDS RECURVING MOTION. ON THIS TRACK THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OVER OR NEAR RODRIGUES ISLAND FRIDAY LATE OR SATURDAY EARLY.
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, SYSTEM TAKES CURRENTLY ALWAYS BENEFIT FROM A GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNEL POLEWARD WHICH IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DAY AFTER DAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CLOSE TO ITS PEAK OF INTENSITY AS IT PASSED NEAR RODRIGUES.
VERTICAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR, COOLER SST AND INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERLIES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND MAKE IT LOOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
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Chickenzilla
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 109
- Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2011 7:31 am
- Location: Croatia (Southeast Europe)
There's a decent amount of dry air east of Ethel.It is probably impacting Ethel 
This post id NOT official forecast and should not be used as such.It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data.It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the official products.
This post id NOT official forecast and should not be used as such.It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data.It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the official products.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 200654
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/7/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ETHEL)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/20 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 64.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 460 SW: 330 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 300 SW: 240 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/20 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 63.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/01/21 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/21 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 62.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/22 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/01/22 18 UTC: 27.5 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/01/23 06 UTC: 29.8 S / 63.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/24 06 UTC: 33.1 S / 73.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2012/01/25 06 UTC: 35.2 S / 84.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0-
MOST AVAILABLE NWP MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTHWARDS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS THEN
A SOUTHEASTWARDS RECURVING MOTION. ON THIS TRACK THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR RODRIGUES ISLAND TONIGHT NEAR 18TU. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER FAVOURABLE FOR
SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, SYSTEM TAKES CURRENTLY
ALWAYS BENEFIT FROM A GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNEL POLEWARD WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NEAR RODRIGUES CLOSE TO ITS PEAK OF INTENSITY.
VERTICAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR, COOLER SST AND INTERACTION WITH
THE WESTERLIES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND MAKE IT LOOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/7/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ETHEL)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/20 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 64.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 460 SW: 330 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 300 SW: 240 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/20 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 63.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/01/21 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/21 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 62.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/22 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/01/22 18 UTC: 27.5 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/01/23 06 UTC: 29.8 S / 63.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/24 06 UTC: 33.1 S / 73.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2012/01/25 06 UTC: 35.2 S / 84.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0-
MOST AVAILABLE NWP MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTHWARDS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS THEN
A SOUTHEASTWARDS RECURVING MOTION. ON THIS TRACK THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR RODRIGUES ISLAND TONIGHT NEAR 18TU. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER FAVOURABLE FOR
SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, SYSTEM TAKES CURRENTLY
ALWAYS BENEFIT FROM A GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNEL POLEWARD WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NEAR RODRIGUES CLOSE TO ITS PEAK OF INTENSITY.
VERTICAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR, COOLER SST AND INTERACTION WITH
THE WESTERLIES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND MAKE IT LOOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 201305
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/7/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ETHEL)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 64.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :13 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 460 SW: 330 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SW: 190 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/21 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 64.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/01/21 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 63.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/01/22 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 63.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/01/22 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 63.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/01/23 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 63.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/01/23 12 UTC: 30.2 S / 66.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/24 12 UTC: 35.4 S / 77.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2012/01/25 12 UTC: 41.4 S / 90.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM HAS REMAIN STATIONARY. ACCORDING TO THE LAST
SATELLITE PICTURES, IT IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. MOST AVAILABLE NWP MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTHWARDS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS THEN
A SOUTHEASTWARDS RECURVING MOTION. ON THIS TRACK THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH CLOSEST TO RODRIGUES ISLAND TONIGHT NEAR 18TU.
WITHIN THE NEXT 18/24 HOURS, ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER GOOD. BEYOND,
SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO UNDERGO NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
BEHIND A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR RODRIGUES CLOSE TO ITS PEAK OF
INTENSITY.
COOLER SST AND INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERLIES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM AND MAKE IT LOOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT THE BEGINING
OF THE NEXT WEEK.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/7/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ETHEL)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 64.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :13 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 460 SW: 330 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SW: 190 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/21 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 64.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/01/21 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 63.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/01/22 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 63.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/01/22 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 63.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/01/23 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 63.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/01/23 12 UTC: 30.2 S / 66.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/24 12 UTC: 35.4 S / 77.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2012/01/25 12 UTC: 41.4 S / 90.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM HAS REMAIN STATIONARY. ACCORDING TO THE LAST
SATELLITE PICTURES, IT IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. MOST AVAILABLE NWP MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTHWARDS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS THEN
A SOUTHEASTWARDS RECURVING MOTION. ON THIS TRACK THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH CLOSEST TO RODRIGUES ISLAND TONIGHT NEAR 18TU.
WITHIN THE NEXT 18/24 HOURS, ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER GOOD. BEYOND,
SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO UNDERGO NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
BEHIND A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR RODRIGUES CLOSE TO ITS PEAK OF
INTENSITY.
COOLER SST AND INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERLIES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM AND MAKE IT LOOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT THE BEGINING
OF THE NEXT WEEK.
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Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
Re: SIO: ETHEL - Severe Tropical Storm (07S)
January 20, 12 (07S-ETHEL) @ 1500utc
Observations and between 1500utc 1600utc indicate that Rodrigues recorded gusts of 124 kmph to Pte Canon 58M aloft (67kts to 1600utc). Probably Lemongrass is higher up the gusts come as over 120 kmph. A P. Coral although the gusts are still below 120 kmph, the average is 80-90 kmph!
Atmospheric pressure has Chutter of a sudden and abrupt between 1500utc 1600utc. The "diurnal corrected pressure" still shows a decrease which justifies Ethel advantage of approaching the island.
Here are the latest observations of Rodrigues:
AAXX 20164
61988 41330 81834 10229 20226 49928 76166 8777 /
333 59140 84707 85813 84645 86458 91167 =
AAXX 20154
61988 21356 81630 10230 20221 49942 76066 87776
333 59117 60187 83707 84814 85645 86458 91067 =
MRIF METAR 201500Z RA SCT006 BKN012 15049G62KT 2000 SCT045 BKN080 23/23 Q0994 = (P. Coral)
http://meteo-maurice.blogspot.com/2012/ ... -2012.html
Observations and between 1500utc 1600utc indicate that Rodrigues recorded gusts of 124 kmph to Pte Canon 58M aloft (67kts to 1600utc). Probably Lemongrass is higher up the gusts come as over 120 kmph. A P. Coral although the gusts are still below 120 kmph, the average is 80-90 kmph!
Atmospheric pressure has Chutter of a sudden and abrupt between 1500utc 1600utc. The "diurnal corrected pressure" still shows a decrease which justifies Ethel advantage of approaching the island.
Here are the latest observations of Rodrigues:
AAXX 20164
61988 41330 81834 10229 20226 49928 76166 8777 /
333 59140 84707 85813 84645 86458 91167 =
AAXX 20154
61988 21356 81630 10230 20221 49942 76066 87776
333 59117 60187 83707 84814 85645 86458 91067 =
MRIF METAR 201500Z RA SCT006 BKN012 15049G62KT 2000 SCT045 BKN080 23/23 Q0994 = (P. Coral)
http://meteo-maurice.blogspot.com/2012/ ... -2012.html
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 201843
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/7/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ETHEL)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/20 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 64.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :15 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 260 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 240 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 60 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/21 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 63.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/01/21 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 62.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/01/22 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 62.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/01/22 18 UTC: 28.2 S / 63.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/01/23 06 UTC: 31.1 S / 66.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
72H: 2012/01/23 18 UTC: 33.3 S / 71.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0-
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY NEAR ITS CLOSEST POINT APPROACH OF RODRIGUES AT
ABOUT 75 KM TO THE EASTSOUTHEAST. CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS AN EMBEDDED
CENTER PATTERN WITH NO MAJOR CHANGE DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS ALTHOUGH
SOME HINT OF A WARM CORE ON LATEST IR IMAGERY. MOST AVAILABLE NWP MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A
SOUTHWARDS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS THEN A SOUTHEASTWARDS
RECURVING MOTION AND EXTRATROPICALISATION.
WITHIN THE NEXT 18/24 HOURS, ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER GOOD. BEYOND,
SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO UNDERGO NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. LATEST CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOW THAT
IT HAS BEGAN TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGHEN A LITTE BIT (15 KT).
RODRGUES ISLAND SEEMS TO HAVE EXPERIENCED THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER THIS EVENING WITH RECORDED GUST AT 70 KT AT POINTE CANON AND
MEAN 10 MIN WINDS AT 49 KT RECORDED AT PLAINE CORAIL AT 15Z.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/7/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ETHEL)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/20 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 64.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :15 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 260 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 240 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 60 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/21 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 63.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/01/21 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 62.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/01/22 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 62.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/01/22 18 UTC: 28.2 S / 63.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/01/23 06 UTC: 31.1 S / 66.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
72H: 2012/01/23 18 UTC: 33.3 S / 71.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0-
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY NEAR ITS CLOSEST POINT APPROACH OF RODRIGUES AT
ABOUT 75 KM TO THE EASTSOUTHEAST. CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS AN EMBEDDED
CENTER PATTERN WITH NO MAJOR CHANGE DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS ALTHOUGH
SOME HINT OF A WARM CORE ON LATEST IR IMAGERY. MOST AVAILABLE NWP MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A
SOUTHWARDS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS THEN A SOUTHEASTWARDS
RECURVING MOTION AND EXTRATROPICALISATION.
WITHIN THE NEXT 18/24 HOURS, ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER GOOD. BEYOND,
SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO UNDERGO NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. LATEST CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOW THAT
IT HAS BEGAN TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGHEN A LITTE BIT (15 KT).
RODRGUES ISLAND SEEMS TO HAVE EXPERIENCED THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER THIS EVENING WITH RECORDED GUST AT 70 KT AT POINTE CANON AND
MEAN 10 MIN WINDS AT 49 KT RECORDED AT PLAINE CORAIL AT 15Z.
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