SIO: IGGY - Tropical Cyclone (09S)

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00pm WST on Saturday the 21st of January 2012
Valid until midnight WST Tuesday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
There are no significant lows in the Western Region. The monsoon trough is
expected to become active and one or two significant lows are likely to develop
within the trough by Monday. The risk of a tropical cyclone in the region
increases during next week. At this time it is not possible to say whether
coastal communities will be directly affected.

By late next week the monsoon trough may be producing gale force northwesterly
winds over areas to the south of the Indonesian archipelago including Christmas
Island.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone forming in the Western Region:
Sunday :Very Low
Monday :Low
Tuesday :Moderate



NOTES: Development Potential is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.
Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/

[HURAKAN]

Potential Cyclones:
A tropical low lies in the monsoon trough near 12.4S 117.6 E. Activity in the
monsoon trough is expected to increase during the week and the tropical low at
12.4S 117.6E or another low within the trough is likely to become significant by
mid week. The risk of a tropical cyclone in the region increases during the
week. At this time it is not possible to say whether coastal communities will be
directly affected, but there is an elevated risk.

By Tuesday next week the monsoon trough may be producing gale force
northwesterly winds over areas to the south of the Indonesian archipelago
including Christmas Island.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone forming in the Western Region:
Monday :Low
Tuesday :Moderate
Wednesday :High

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

An active monsoon trough lies between 12S 90E and 14S 125E. The trough is
expected to intensify over the next couple of days and by Wednesday it is likely
to be producing gale force northwesterly winds over areas to the south of the
Indonesian archipelago, including Christmas Island.

One or two significant lows are likely to develop in the monsoon trough between
longitudes 100E and 115E and a tropical cyclone may form as early as Wednesday.
At this time it is not possible to say whether coastal communities will be
directly affected, but there is an elevated risk of a cyclone impact later in
the week.

People in the Gascoyne, Pilbara and Kimberley are advised to keep up to date
with weather forecasts.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone forming in the Western Region:
Tuesday :Low
Wednesday :High
Thursday :High

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[weatherwindow]

per the BOM...system is consolidating..996mb 10min winds 30kts...likely TC by Wed local time, possible coastal gale force winds on Western Territories coast by Fri local time...potential for landfall uncertain......rich

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0716 UTC 24/01/2012
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.0S
Longitude: 112.6E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west [270 deg]
Speed of Movement: 13 knots [25 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 24/1800: 16.5S 110.9E: 100 [185]: 030 [055]: 995
+24: 25/0600: 16.9S 109.8E: 140 [260]: 040 [075]: 989
+36: 25/1800: 17.5S 109.6E: 170 [315]: 045 [085]: 986
+48: 26/0600: 18.5S 109.7E: 200 [370]: 055 [100]: 977
+60: 26/1800: 19.4S 109.8E: 230 [425]: 060 [110]: 972
+72: 27/0600: 20.1S 109.9E: 260 [480]: 075 [140]: 959
REMARKS:
System assigned T1.0 at 00Z. Yesterday the cloud system centre could not be
defined in an area less than 2.5 degrees. Overnight convection consolidated near
a developing low level circulation centre. ASCAT and VIS imagery show the LLCC
gradually becoming better defined but low level cloud lines are still poorly
organised.

The system has shown further improvement over the last 6 hours and FT is set at
1.5. Shear is generally low south of 15S and models indicate the system will
experience low shear for the next 72 hours. Combined with SSTs over 30 degrees
the system is expected to develop faster than the standard Dvorak rate and may
reach TC intensity by early tomorrow.

The subsequent track may develop on the rate of intensification with some models
indicating the system will take a southerly or south southeasterly track on
Thursday. On Friday the system is likely to be near 20S. SSTs decrease south of
20S and the system is likely to be slow moving which may cause upwelling and
reduce SSTs. As shear remains light, weakening in the longer term is more likely
to be due to low oceanic heat content.

The monsoon trough is expected to remain strong over the next few days,
resulting in strong northwesterly flow extending well to the east of the system
centre and bringing moderate swell and increased rainfall to coastal areas of
the Pilbara and Kimberley.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

WTXS21 PGTW 241100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WARCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.6S 112.7E TO 17.4S 107.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
240530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.8S
111.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.8S
112.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 111.9E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION. A 240214Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A
SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS (25 TO 30 KNOTS) LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE LLCC HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH
POLEWARD OUTFLOW DEVELOPING AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. BASED ON
IMPROVING LLCC ORGANIZATION, INCREASING OUTFLOW, AND THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
251100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Next name: Iggy



Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1859 UTC 24/01/2012
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.1S
Longitude: 109.7E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west [270 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/18HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 25/0600: 16.3S 108.6E: 100 [185]: 040 [075]: 988
+24: 25/1800: 16.6S 108.3E: 140 [260]: 050 [095]: 982
+36: 26/0600: 17.5S 108.9E: 170 [315]: 060 [110]: 976
+48: 26/1800: 18.6S 109.5E: 200 [370]: 060 [110]: 976
+60: 27/0600: 19.6S 110.1E: 230 [425]: 070 [130]: 965
+72: 27/1800: 20.7S 110.4E: 260 [480]: 075 [140]: 960
REMARKS:
The system has built an upper level high over the centre, and convection is
beginning to consolidate near the centre. Microwave imagery suggests a
reasonable curved band structure is developing under the cirrus overcast.

Shear / curved bands can be construed to suggest a DT of 3.0, however both MET
and PATTERN at 2.5 are more clearcut. Recent ASCAT pass suggests 30 knots on the
western side under deep convection, with 15 knots to the east.

Mid level steering is forecast to weaken dramatically in 12 to 24 hours as the
STR folds underneath a cutoff over SE Australia. The impact of the change in
steering should be viewed with some caution as the model guidance will no doubt
have been impacted by influence of the ETT of TC Ethel into the Southern Ocean.
However, in the 24 to 72 hour time frame it appears likely the system will move
in a southerly or SSE'ly direction, closer to NW cape, whilst intensifying
steadily.

Relatively shallow SSTs may limit the intensity of this system, particulalrly if
it becomes slow moving over waters south of 20 south.

Strong monsoonal flow is forecast to produce a larger than normal gale radius on
this system, and also contribute to a broad area of abnormally high significant
wave heights affecting Christmas island, the West Kimberley, and adjacent
Pilbara coasts.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 09S

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1244 UTC 25/01/2012
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 15.7S
Longitude: 108.0E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: west [281 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 26/0000: 15.9S 107.5E: 075 [140]: 045 [085]: 983
+24: 26/1200: 16.7S 108.2E: 105 [195]: 055 [100]: 978
+36: 27/0000: 17.7S 108.9E: 140 [255]: 060 [110]: 974
+48: 27/1200: 18.6S 109.5E: 170 [315]: 070 [130]: 963
+60: 28/0000: 19.2S 109.7E: 220 [405]: 075 [140]: 958
+72: 28/1200: 19.8S 110.5E: 265 [490]: 075 [140]: 958
REMARKS:
The low level circulation centre is clearly evident on the eastern edge of the
deep convection. A shear pattern analysis gives a DT of 2.5 or 3.0. Curvature is
slowly improving and an average wrap of 0.5 was obtained over several VIS
images. PAT is assessed as 2.5 and FT is set to 2.5.

The system is likely to slow and begin to move south or southeastwards overnight
as the subtropical ridge to the south erodes. The vigorous monsoon trough, add
some uncertainty to the development and movement of the system. It appears
likely the system will move in a south southeast direction over the next 72
hours, closer to NW cape, whilst intensifying steadily.

Relatively shallow SSTs may limit the intensity of this system, particularly if
it becomes slow moving over waters south of 20 south.

Strong monsoonal flow is likely to contribute to a broad area of abnormally high
significant wave heights affecting Christmas Island, the West Kimberley, and
adjacent Pilbara coasts. The strong monsoon flow may also produce heavy rainfall
and strong winds on the coast well to the east of the current low, extending
into the Kimberley.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WARCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WARCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251051ZJAN12//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 107.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 107.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.4S 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.4S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.3S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 19.1S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

[HURAKAN]

semi exposed but well-defined low level circulation

[Chacor]

Named.

AXAU01 APRF 251841
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1841 UTC 25/01/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Iggy
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.7S
Longitude: 107.8E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west [280 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 988 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 26/0600: 16.2S 107.9E: 085 [155]: 050 [095]: 982
+24: 26/1800: 17.1S 108.5E: 105 [195]: 060 [110]: 976
+36: 27/0600: 18.0S 109.1E: 125 [230]: 065 [120]: 972
+48: 27/1800: 18.6S 109.5E: 150 [280]: 070 [130]: 965
+60: 28/0600: 19.3S 110.0E: 180 [335]: 075 [140]: 960
+72: 28/1800: 19.7S 110.3E: 205 [380]: 075 [140]: 959
REMARKS:
The low level circulation centre has moved under the deep convection. A shear
pattern analysis gives a DT of 3.0. The system has developed over the last 24
hours giving a MET of 3.0, PAT agrees, resulting in CI of 3.0.

Tropical Cyclone Iggy is likely to move south southeastwards over the next 72
hours and slowly intensify as the subtropical ridge to the south erodes. The
vigorous monsoon trough has added some uncertainty to the development and
movement of the system.

Relatively shallow SSTs may limit the intensity of this system, particularly if
it becomes slow moving over waters south of 20 south.

Strong winds, heavy rainfall and abnormally large swells will be experienced
near Christmas Island, the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts due to the influence of
a strong monsoonal flow.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[Chacor]

Perth are forecasting fairly significant strengthening to 90 kt with this.

AXAU01 APRF 260123
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0123 UTC 26/01/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Iggy
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.2S
Longitude: 108.8E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [125 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 26/1200: 16.9S 109.6E: 080 [150]: 045 [085]: 984
+24: 27/0000: 17.9S 110.4E: 115 [215]: 055 [100]: 978
+36: 27/1200: 18.8S 111.0E: 145 [270]: 065 [120]: 967
+48: 28/0000: 19.6S 111.7E: 185 [345]: 075 [140]: 958
+60: 28/1200: 20.3S 112.5E: 230 [430]: 085 [155]: 949
+72: 29/0000: 20.7S 113.1E: 280 [520]: 090 [165]: 943
REMARKS:
VIS imagery shows the LLCC on the eastern edge of the CDO. CIMSS shear analysis
indicates around 20 knots of easterly shear consistent with the indications from
VIS imagery. Shear pattern gives DT 3.0 with the LLCC not sufficiently
underneath the CDO to yield 3.5. ADT is at 2.7.

Final intensity is set at 40 knots though it is likely that winds on the eastern
side are weaker at present. Overnight the system has begun to move SE'ly as
expected. The ridge to the south is very weak and steering is dominated by the
monsoon flow to the north over the next 72 hours, bringing the system SE towards
the coast. Models indicate SSE or SE movement maintained for around 48 hours
before sufficient ridging develops to the south to steer the system to the west.
Not all models develop sufficient ridging to the alter the course, with some
models maintaining a SE course bringing it across the Pilbara coast.

All available intensity guidance indicates the system will steadily intensify
over the next 3 days and this is consistent with an analysis of the synoptic
conditions. If the system maintains a more SE'ly track it will track over warmer
SSTs. A more southerly track will bring it into an area of shallower warm water
near 20S and may limit intensity due to upwelling of colder water if the system
is slow moving. Shear remains low to moderate over the period and favourable
interaction with an upper trough is possible over the weekend.

Strong winds, heavy rainfall and abnormally large swells will be experienced
near Christmas Island, the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts due to the influence of
a strong monsoonal flow.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[Chacor]

Perth have issued watches for the NW coast.

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible