remains sheared
SIO: IGGY - Tropical Cyclone (09S)
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 8:45 pm WST on Thursday, 26 January 2012
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Coral Bay.
At 8:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category 1 was estimated to be
800 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and
940 kilometres west northwest of Karratha and
moving east southeast at 6 kilometres per hour towards the west Pilbara coast.
Over the next 72 hours TC Iggy will steadily intensify while moving
southeastwards towards the western Pilbara coast.
Gales are not expected in coastal communities on Friday, however gales may
develop on the coast between Whim Creek and Coral Bay on Saturday afternoon or
overnight into Sunday. Rainfall is likely to increase on Friday in coastal parts
of the Pilbara, west Kimberley and possibly on the west coast north of Cape
Cuvier.
Strong winds, heavy rainfall and abnormally large swells will be experienced
near Christmas Island, the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts due to the influence of
a strong monsoonal flow.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Whim Creek and Coral Bay, including communities
near Karratha, Onslow and Exmouth, should listen for the next issue.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Iggy at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.5 degrees South 109.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east southeast at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 981 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Friday 27 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 8:45 pm WST on Thursday, 26 January 2012
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Coral Bay.
At 8:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category 1 was estimated to be
800 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and
940 kilometres west northwest of Karratha and
moving east southeast at 6 kilometres per hour towards the west Pilbara coast.
Over the next 72 hours TC Iggy will steadily intensify while moving
southeastwards towards the western Pilbara coast.
Gales are not expected in coastal communities on Friday, however gales may
develop on the coast between Whim Creek and Coral Bay on Saturday afternoon or
overnight into Sunday. Rainfall is likely to increase on Friday in coastal parts
of the Pilbara, west Kimberley and possibly on the west coast north of Cape
Cuvier.
Strong winds, heavy rainfall and abnormally large swells will be experienced
near Christmas Island, the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts due to the influence of
a strong monsoonal flow.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Whim Creek and Coral Bay, including communities
near Karratha, Onslow and Exmouth, should listen for the next issue.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Iggy at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.5 degrees South 109.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east southeast at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 981 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Friday 27 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1239 UTC 26/01/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Iggy
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 16.5S
Longitude: 109.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [112 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 981 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 45 nm [85 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 996 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 27/0000: 17.1S 110.0E: 060 [110]: 050 [095]: 979
+24: 27/1200: 18.0S 110.7E: 090 [165]: 060 [110]: 972
+36: 28/0000: 18.5S 111.2E: 120 [225]: 070 [130]: 960
+48: 28/1200: 19.1S 112.1E: 155 [285]: 075 [140]: 957
+60: 29/0000: 19.0S 112.6E: 200 [375]: 085 [155]: 946
+72: 29/1200: 19.2S 112.9E: 250 [465]: 090 [165]: 941
REMARKS:
VIS imagery during the day and microwave imagery showed a low level centre to
the east of the cold convection. The 06Z CIMSS shear analysis shows 30 knots of
shear located over the system and this may be why TC Iggy has not developed
significantly over the past 12 hours.
The ridge to the south is very weak and steering is dominated by the monsoon
flow to the north, bringing the system SE towards the coast. Models indicate a
general southeast movement is maintained for around 48 hours before sufficient
ridging develops to the south to steer the system to the southwest. Not all
models develop sufficient ridging to alter the course, with a few models
maintaining a SE course bringing Iggy across the Pilbara coast. This spread is
reflected in the ensemble outputs from EC. The UK model maintains the SE motion
and brings the system to the coast around 00Z on the 29th [Sunday] . This is
also the time when most other models are close to their closest approach to the
coast prior to recurving to the southwest.
EC Lagrangian meteograms indicate intensification continuing through to the end
of the runs with around 40-45m/s reached in the deterministic model on Monday.
STIPS also shows continuing intensification through until Monday.
The EC and UK models indicate only light to moderate shear over the next 72
hours with the possibility that an upper trough will interact favourably and
provide upper cyclonic vorticity and an outflow channel to the SE. Hence steady
intenisfication is forecast with the system reaching severe in 36 to 48 hours.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1239 UTC 26/01/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Iggy
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 16.5S
Longitude: 109.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [112 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 981 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 45 nm [85 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 996 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 27/0000: 17.1S 110.0E: 060 [110]: 050 [095]: 979
+24: 27/1200: 18.0S 110.7E: 090 [165]: 060 [110]: 972
+36: 28/0000: 18.5S 111.2E: 120 [225]: 070 [130]: 960
+48: 28/1200: 19.1S 112.1E: 155 [285]: 075 [140]: 957
+60: 29/0000: 19.0S 112.6E: 200 [375]: 085 [155]: 946
+72: 29/1200: 19.2S 112.9E: 250 [465]: 090 [165]: 941
REMARKS:
VIS imagery during the day and microwave imagery showed a low level centre to
the east of the cold convection. The 06Z CIMSS shear analysis shows 30 knots of
shear located over the system and this may be why TC Iggy has not developed
significantly over the past 12 hours.
The ridge to the south is very weak and steering is dominated by the monsoon
flow to the north, bringing the system SE towards the coast. Models indicate a
general southeast movement is maintained for around 48 hours before sufficient
ridging develops to the south to steer the system to the southwest. Not all
models develop sufficient ridging to alter the course, with a few models
maintaining a SE course bringing Iggy across the Pilbara coast. This spread is
reflected in the ensemble outputs from EC. The UK model maintains the SE motion
and brings the system to the coast around 00Z on the 29th [Sunday] . This is
also the time when most other models are close to their closest approach to the
coast prior to recurving to the southwest.
EC Lagrangian meteograms indicate intensification continuing through to the end
of the runs with around 40-45m/s reached in the deterministic model on Monday.
STIPS also shows continuing intensification through until Monday.
The EC and UK models indicate only light to moderate shear over the next 72
hours with the possibility that an upper trough will interact favourably and
provide upper cyclonic vorticity and an outflow channel to the SE. Hence steady
intenisfication is forecast with the system reaching severe in 36 to 48 hours.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 2:38 am WST on Friday 27 January 2012
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Coral Bay.
At 2:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category 1 was estimated to be
760 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and
910 kilometres west northwest of Karratha and
moving south southeast at 6 kilometres per hour towards the west Pilbara coast.
Over the next 72 hours TC Iggy will steadily intensify while moving
southeastwards towards the western Pilbara coast.
Gales are not expected in coastal communities on Friday, however gales may
develop on the coast between Whim Creek and Coral Bay on Saturday afternoon or
overnight into Sunday. Rainfall is likely to increase on Friday in coastal
parts of the Pilbara, west Kimberley and possibly on the west coast north of
Cape Cuvier.
Strong winds, heavy rainfall and abnormally large swells will be experienced
near Christmas Island, the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts due to the influence of
a strong monsoonal flow.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Whim Creek and Coral Bay, including communities near
Karratha, Onslow and Exmouth, should listen for the next issue.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Iggy at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.8 degrees South 109.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 981 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Friday 27 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 2:38 am WST on Friday 27 January 2012
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Coral Bay.
At 2:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category 1 was estimated to be
760 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and
910 kilometres west northwest of Karratha and
moving south southeast at 6 kilometres per hour towards the west Pilbara coast.
Over the next 72 hours TC Iggy will steadily intensify while moving
southeastwards towards the western Pilbara coast.
Gales are not expected in coastal communities on Friday, however gales may
develop on the coast between Whim Creek and Coral Bay on Saturday afternoon or
overnight into Sunday. Rainfall is likely to increase on Friday in coastal
parts of the Pilbara, west Kimberley and possibly on the west coast north of
Cape Cuvier.
Strong winds, heavy rainfall and abnormally large swells will be experienced
near Christmas Island, the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts due to the influence of
a strong monsoonal flow.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Whim Creek and Coral Bay, including communities near
Karratha, Onslow and Exmouth, should listen for the next issue.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Iggy at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.8 degrees South 109.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 981 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Friday 27 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1825 UTC 26/01/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Iggy
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.8S
Longitude: 109.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [161 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 981 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 45 nm [85 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: t3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 996 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 27/0600: 17.6S 110.1E: 060 [110]: 055 [100]: 976
+24: 27/1800: 18.3S 110.7E: 090 [165]: 065 [120]: 965
+36: 28/0600: 18.8S 111.4E: 120 [225]: 075 [140]: 957
+48: 28/1800: 19.0S 112.2E: 155 [285]: 080 [150]: 951
+60: 29/0600: 19.0S 112.5E: 200 [375]: 090 [165]: 941
+72: 29/1800: 19.3S 112.5E: 250 [465]: 085 [155]: 946
REMARKS:
VIS imagery during the day and microwave imagery showed a low level centre to
the east of the cold convection. The 06Z CIMSS shear analysis shows 30 knots of
shear located over the system and this may be why TC Iggy has not developed
significantly over the past 12 hours.
The ridge to the south is very weak and steering is dominated by the monsoon
flow to the north, bringing the system SE towards the coast. Models indicate a
general southeast movement is maintained for around 48 hours before sufficient
ridging develops to the south to steer the system to the southwest. Not all
models develop sufficient ridging to alter the course, with a few models
maintaining a SE course bringing Iggy across the Pilbara coast. This spread is
reflected in the ensemble outputs from EC. The UK model maintains the SE motion
and brings the system to the coast around 00Z on the 29th [Sunday] . This is
also the time when most other models are close to their closest approach to the
coast prior to recurving to the southwest.
EC Lagrangian meteograms indicate intensification continuing through to the end
of the runs with around 40-45m/s reached in the deterministic model on Monday.
STIPS also shows continuing intensification through until Monday.
The EC and UK models indicate only light to moderate shear over the next 72
hours with the possibility that an upper trough will interact favourably and
provide upper cyclonic vorticity and an outflow channel to the SE. Hence steady
intenisfication is forecast with the system reaching severe in 36 to 48 hours.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1825 UTC 26/01/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Iggy
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.8S
Longitude: 109.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [161 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 981 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 45 nm [85 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: t3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 996 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 27/0600: 17.6S 110.1E: 060 [110]: 055 [100]: 976
+24: 27/1800: 18.3S 110.7E: 090 [165]: 065 [120]: 965
+36: 28/0600: 18.8S 111.4E: 120 [225]: 075 [140]: 957
+48: 28/1800: 19.0S 112.2E: 155 [285]: 080 [150]: 951
+60: 29/0600: 19.0S 112.5E: 200 [375]: 090 [165]: 941
+72: 29/1800: 19.3S 112.5E: 250 [465]: 085 [155]: 946
REMARKS:
VIS imagery during the day and microwave imagery showed a low level centre to
the east of the cold convection. The 06Z CIMSS shear analysis shows 30 knots of
shear located over the system and this may be why TC Iggy has not developed
significantly over the past 12 hours.
The ridge to the south is very weak and steering is dominated by the monsoon
flow to the north, bringing the system SE towards the coast. Models indicate a
general southeast movement is maintained for around 48 hours before sufficient
ridging develops to the south to steer the system to the southwest. Not all
models develop sufficient ridging to alter the course, with a few models
maintaining a SE course bringing Iggy across the Pilbara coast. This spread is
reflected in the ensemble outputs from EC. The UK model maintains the SE motion
and brings the system to the coast around 00Z on the 29th [Sunday] . This is
also the time when most other models are close to their closest approach to the
coast prior to recurving to the southwest.
EC Lagrangian meteograms indicate intensification continuing through to the end
of the runs with around 40-45m/s reached in the deterministic model on Monday.
STIPS also shows continuing intensification through until Monday.
The EC and UK models indicate only light to moderate shear over the next 72
hours with the possibility that an upper trough will interact favourably and
provide upper cyclonic vorticity and an outflow channel to the SE. Hence steady
intenisfication is forecast with the system reaching severe in 36 to 48 hours.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
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- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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WTXS31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/JOINT TYPHOON WARCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 004//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 17.1S 109.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 109.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.6S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.3S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.8S 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTE
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HURAKAN
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- Age: 37
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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued at 8:37 am WST on Friday 27 January 2012
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Port Hedland to Coral Bay.
At 8:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category 2 was estimated to be
610 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and
740 kilometres west northwest of Karratha and
moving east southeast at 13 kilometres per hour towards the west Pilbara coast.
Over the next 72 hours TC Iggy will steadily intensify while moving
southeastwards towards the western Pilbara coast.
Gales are not expected in coastal communities on Friday, however gales may
develop on the coast between Whim Creek and Coral Bay on Saturday afternoon or
overnight into Sunday. Rainfall is likely to increase on Friday in coastal
parts of the Pilbara, west Kimberley and possibly on the west coast north of
Cape Cuvier.
Strong winds, heavy rainfall and abnormally large swells will be experienced
near Christmas Island, the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts due to the influence of
a strong monsoonal flow.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Port Hedland and Coral Bay, including communities near
Karratha, Onslow and Exmouth, should listen for the next issue.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Iggy at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.5 degrees South 110.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east southeast at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 979 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Friday 27 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 8:37 am WST on Friday 27 January 2012
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Port Hedland to Coral Bay.
At 8:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category 2 was estimated to be
610 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and
740 kilometres west northwest of Karratha and
moving east southeast at 13 kilometres per hour towards the west Pilbara coast.
Over the next 72 hours TC Iggy will steadily intensify while moving
southeastwards towards the western Pilbara coast.
Gales are not expected in coastal communities on Friday, however gales may
develop on the coast between Whim Creek and Coral Bay on Saturday afternoon or
overnight into Sunday. Rainfall is likely to increase on Friday in coastal
parts of the Pilbara, west Kimberley and possibly on the west coast north of
Cape Cuvier.
Strong winds, heavy rainfall and abnormally large swells will be experienced
near Christmas Island, the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts due to the influence of
a strong monsoonal flow.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Port Hedland and Coral Bay, including communities near
Karratha, Onslow and Exmouth, should listen for the next issue.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Iggy at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.5 degrees South 110.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east southeast at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 979 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Friday 27 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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AXAU01 APRF 270050
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0050 UTC 27/01/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Iggy
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 17.5S
Longitude: 110.7E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [116 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 979 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 50 nm [95 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 996 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 27/1200: 18.4S 111.7E: 090 [165]: 050 [095]: 978
+24: 28/0000: 19.0S 112.3E: 120 [220]: 060 [110]: 969
+36: 28/1200: 19.5S 113.0E: 150 [280]: 070 [130]: 960
+48: 29/0000: 19.6S 113.5E: 185 [345]: 080 [150]: 951
+60: 29/1200: 19.8S 113.7E: 230 [430]: 090 [165]: 941
+72: 30/0000: 20.0S 113.9E: 280 [520]: 090 [165]: 941
REMARKS:
TC Iggy has shown some development overnight with the early VIS imagery showing
increased curvature and the LLCC more closely involved with the deep convection.
A shear analysis gives DT3.5 with the LLCC under the overcast by more than 1/3
deg. ASCAT pass at 14Z indicated 50 knot winds to the north with a larger gale
radius in the northern semicircle than in the south.
The ridge to the south is very weak and steering is dominated by the monsoon
flow to the north, bringing the system SE towards the coast. Models indicate a
general southeast movement is maintained for around 48 hours before sufficient
ridging develops to the south to steer the system to the southwest. Not all
models develop sufficient ridging to alter the course, with a few models
maintaining a SE course bringing Iggy across the Pilbara coast. There has been a
trend in the model guidance towards more southeast movement prior to recurving
to the west and this is reflected in the ensemble outputs. Most models have the
closest approach to the coast occurring late Sunday or Monday but it may produce
gales on the coast as early as Saturday evening.
Although intensification may be slow today as shear remains around 18 knots on
the latest analysis, models indicate only light to moderate shear over the next
72 hours with the possibility that an upper trough will interact favourably and
provide upper cyclonic vorticity and an outflow channel to the SE. Hence steady
intensification is forecast with the system reaching severe in 36 to 48 hours.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0050 UTC 27/01/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Iggy
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 17.5S
Longitude: 110.7E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [116 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 979 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 50 nm [95 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 996 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 27/1200: 18.4S 111.7E: 090 [165]: 050 [095]: 978
+24: 28/0000: 19.0S 112.3E: 120 [220]: 060 [110]: 969
+36: 28/1200: 19.5S 113.0E: 150 [280]: 070 [130]: 960
+48: 29/0000: 19.6S 113.5E: 185 [345]: 080 [150]: 951
+60: 29/1200: 19.8S 113.7E: 230 [430]: 090 [165]: 941
+72: 30/0000: 20.0S 113.9E: 280 [520]: 090 [165]: 941
REMARKS:
TC Iggy has shown some development overnight with the early VIS imagery showing
increased curvature and the LLCC more closely involved with the deep convection.
A shear analysis gives DT3.5 with the LLCC under the overcast by more than 1/3
deg. ASCAT pass at 14Z indicated 50 knot winds to the north with a larger gale
radius in the northern semicircle than in the south.
The ridge to the south is very weak and steering is dominated by the monsoon
flow to the north, bringing the system SE towards the coast. Models indicate a
general southeast movement is maintained for around 48 hours before sufficient
ridging develops to the south to steer the system to the southwest. Not all
models develop sufficient ridging to alter the course, with a few models
maintaining a SE course bringing Iggy across the Pilbara coast. There has been a
trend in the model guidance towards more southeast movement prior to recurving
to the west and this is reflected in the ensemble outputs. Most models have the
closest approach to the coast occurring late Sunday or Monday but it may produce
gales on the coast as early as Saturday evening.
Although intensification may be slow today as shear remains around 18 knots on
the latest analysis, models indicate only light to moderate shear over the next
72 hours with the possibility that an upper trough will interact favourably and
provide upper cyclonic vorticity and an outflow channel to the SE. Hence steady
intensification is forecast with the system reaching severe in 36 to 48 hours.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued at 2:45 pm WST on Friday 27 January 2012
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Port Hedland to Coral Bay.
At 2:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category 2 was estimated to be
560 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and
720 kilometres west northwest of Karratha and
moving south southeast at 8 kilometres per hour towards the west Pilbara coast.
Over the next 48 hours TC Iggy will steadily intensify while moving generally
southeastwards towards the western Pilbara coast.
Gales may develop near Exmouth by early Sunday and extend to other coastal
parts of the Pilbara west of Port Hedland, by Sunday evening. Rainfall is
likely to increase on Saturday in coastal parts of the Pilbara. The heaviest
rainfall is likely to be confined to within 100 kilometres of the coast.
Rainfall totals of over 100mm each day may occur over the weekend.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Port Hedland and Coral Bay, including communities near
Karratha, Onslow and Exmouth, should listen for the next issue.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Iggy at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 18.2 degrees South 110.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 8 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 977 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Friday 27 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 2:45 pm WST on Friday 27 January 2012
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Port Hedland to Coral Bay.
At 2:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category 2 was estimated to be
560 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and
720 kilometres west northwest of Karratha and
moving south southeast at 8 kilometres per hour towards the west Pilbara coast.
Over the next 48 hours TC Iggy will steadily intensify while moving generally
southeastwards towards the western Pilbara coast.
Gales may develop near Exmouth by early Sunday and extend to other coastal
parts of the Pilbara west of Port Hedland, by Sunday evening. Rainfall is
likely to increase on Saturday in coastal parts of the Pilbara. The heaviest
rainfall is likely to be confined to within 100 kilometres of the coast.
Rainfall totals of over 100mm each day may occur over the weekend.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Port Hedland and Coral Bay, including communities near
Karratha, Onslow and Exmouth, should listen for the next issue.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Iggy at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 18.2 degrees South 110.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 8 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 977 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Friday 27 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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AXAU01 APRF 271320
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1320 UTC 27/01/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Iggy
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 18.9S
Longitude: 111.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [131 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 977 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 50 nm [95 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.5/S0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 996 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 28/0000: 19.5S 112.1E: 050 [095]: 055 [100]: 973
+24: 28/1200: 20.0S 113.2E: 080 [150]: 065 [120]: 965
+36: 29/0000: 20.2S 114.1E: 110 [210]: 075 [140]: 956
+48: 29/1200: 20.4S 114.6E: 145 [270]: 085 [155]: 946
+60: 30/0000: 20.8S 114.6E: 190 [355]: 090 [165]: 941
+72: 30/1200: 21.5S 114.5E: 240 [445]: 090 [165]: 941
REMARKS:
System located by microwave imagery at 08Z and 11Z that showed a well defined
LLCC removed from the deep convection. FT of 3.0 based on shear pattern
supported by MET, CI held at 3.5.
The system continues to be steered by the deep NW monsoon flow, and has moved
steadily southeastwards over the past 6 hours after a more southerly track
earlier in the day.
Models indicate that the shear will reduce for the next 72 hours and the system
is forecast to intensify over the weekend.
Models indicate the general southeast movement is maintained for around 24-36
hours. After that time the steering becomes weak and with less monsoon flow and
still no significant ridging to the south the system may become slow moving for
a period. The timing of when the steering flow drops off is critical to the
possible impact on the Pilbara. Most models have the closest approach to the
coast occurring late Sunday or Monday but it may produce gales on the coast as
early as Saturday evening.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1320 UTC 27/01/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Iggy
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 18.9S
Longitude: 111.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [131 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 977 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 50 nm [95 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.5/S0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 996 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 28/0000: 19.5S 112.1E: 050 [095]: 055 [100]: 973
+24: 28/1200: 20.0S 113.2E: 080 [150]: 065 [120]: 965
+36: 29/0000: 20.2S 114.1E: 110 [210]: 075 [140]: 956
+48: 29/1200: 20.4S 114.6E: 145 [270]: 085 [155]: 946
+60: 30/0000: 20.8S 114.6E: 190 [355]: 090 [165]: 941
+72: 30/1200: 21.5S 114.5E: 240 [445]: 090 [165]: 941
REMARKS:
System located by microwave imagery at 08Z and 11Z that showed a well defined
LLCC removed from the deep convection. FT of 3.0 based on shear pattern
supported by MET, CI held at 3.5.
The system continues to be steered by the deep NW monsoon flow, and has moved
steadily southeastwards over the past 6 hours after a more southerly track
earlier in the day.
Models indicate that the shear will reduce for the next 72 hours and the system
is forecast to intensify over the weekend.
Models indicate the general southeast movement is maintained for around 24-36
hours. After that time the steering becomes weak and with less monsoon flow and
still no significant ridging to the south the system may become slow moving for
a period. The timing of when the steering flow drops off is critical to the
possible impact on the Pilbara. Most models have the closest approach to the
coast occurring late Sunday or Monday but it may produce gales on the coast as
early as Saturday evening.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
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- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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- Contact:
WTXS31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/JOINT TYPHOON WARCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 007//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 19.1S 110.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 110.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.7S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 20.2S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.5S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.7S 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.1S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 21.7S 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.8S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 110.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHT COOLING OF CONVECTIVE TOPS OVER THE MAIN
FEEDER BAND ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, A
271040Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS
DISPLACED WESTWARD FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
INITIAL POSITION WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND APRF. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 09S IS APPROACHING THE
RIDGE AXIS INTO AN AREA OF FAVORABLY LOW VWS. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE EXCELLENT
WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLOWING DOWN AFTER TAU 36 AS THE NER RECEDES AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA ASSUMES STEERING
AFTER TAU 48. THIS WILL PROPEL THE SYSTEM TO TRACK ON A MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. THE TC WILL REACH PEAK INTENSITY SHORTLY
AFTER IT MAKES THE TURN AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS MAXIMIZE. TC IGGY
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD NEAR 22
SOUTH LATITUDE WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DIP AND VWS INCREASES.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SPREAD WITH NOGAPS AND
GFDN ON THE RIGHT AND JGSM, EGRR, AND ECMWF ON THE LEFT OF THE
ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued at 2:43 am WST on Saturday 28 January 2012
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mardie to Ningaloo.
A Cyclone WATCH extends east to Port Hedland and south to Coral Bay.
At 2:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category 2 was estimated to be
360 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and
580 kilometres west of Karratha and
moving south southeast at 16 kilometres per hour towards the west Pilbara coast.
Over the next 48 hours TC Iggy will steadily intensify while moving generally
southeastwards towards the western Pilbara coast.
Gales may develop near the Pilbara coast between Ningaloo and Mardie by
Saturday afternoon and could extend east to Port Hedland and south to Coral Bay
by Sunday evening.
Heavy rainfall is likely in coastal parts of the Pilbara over the weekend and
there will continue to be large swells along the Pilbara and Kimberley coasts.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Mardie and
Coral Bay including the communities of Mardie, Onslow, Exmouth and Coral Bay
need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including
first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
Communities between Mardie and Port Hedland should listen for the next advice.
People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life threatening situation
call 000. For more safety tips visit http://www.fesa.wa.gov.au
Details of Tropical Cyclone Iggy at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 19.9 degrees South 111.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 16 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 977 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am WST Saturday 28 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 2:43 am WST on Saturday 28 January 2012
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mardie to Ningaloo.
A Cyclone WATCH extends east to Port Hedland and south to Coral Bay.
At 2:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category 2 was estimated to be
360 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and
580 kilometres west of Karratha and
moving south southeast at 16 kilometres per hour towards the west Pilbara coast.
Over the next 48 hours TC Iggy will steadily intensify while moving generally
southeastwards towards the western Pilbara coast.
Gales may develop near the Pilbara coast between Ningaloo and Mardie by
Saturday afternoon and could extend east to Port Hedland and south to Coral Bay
by Sunday evening.
Heavy rainfall is likely in coastal parts of the Pilbara over the weekend and
there will continue to be large swells along the Pilbara and Kimberley coasts.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Mardie and
Coral Bay including the communities of Mardie, Onslow, Exmouth and Coral Bay
need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including
first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
Communities between Mardie and Port Hedland should listen for the next advice.
People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life threatening situation
call 000. For more safety tips visit http://www.fesa.wa.gov.au
Details of Tropical Cyclone Iggy at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 19.9 degrees South 111.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 16 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 977 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am WST Saturday 28 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued at 5:35 am WST on Saturday 28 January 2012
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mardie to Ningaloo.
A Cyclone WATCH Port Hedland to Mardie and Ningaloo to Coral Bay.
At 5:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category 2 was estimated to be
325 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and
535 kilometres west of Karratha and
moving southeast at 15 kilometres per hour towards the west Pilbara coast.
Over the next 48 hours TC Iggy will steadily intensify while moving generally
southeastwards towards the western Pilbara coast.
Gales may develop near the Pilbara coast between Ningaloo and Mardie by
Saturday afternoon and could extend east to Port Hedland and south to Coral Bay
by Sunday evening.
Heavy rainfall is likely in coastal parts of the Pilbara over the weekend and
there will continue to be large swells along the Pilbara and Kimberley coasts.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Mardie and
Coral Bay including the communities of Mardie, Onslow, Exmouth and Coral Bay
need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including
first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
Communities between Mardie and Port Hedland should listen for the next advice.
People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life threatening situation
call 000. For more safety tips visit http://www.fesa.wa.gov.au
Details of Tropical Cyclone Iggy at 5:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 20.0 degrees South 111.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 977 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Saturday 28 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 5:35 am WST on Saturday 28 January 2012
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mardie to Ningaloo.
A Cyclone WATCH Port Hedland to Mardie and Ningaloo to Coral Bay.
At 5:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category 2 was estimated to be
325 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and
535 kilometres west of Karratha and
moving southeast at 15 kilometres per hour towards the west Pilbara coast.
Over the next 48 hours TC Iggy will steadily intensify while moving generally
southeastwards towards the western Pilbara coast.
Gales may develop near the Pilbara coast between Ningaloo and Mardie by
Saturday afternoon and could extend east to Port Hedland and south to Coral Bay
by Sunday evening.
Heavy rainfall is likely in coastal parts of the Pilbara over the weekend and
there will continue to be large swells along the Pilbara and Kimberley coasts.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Mardie and
Coral Bay including the communities of Mardie, Onslow, Exmouth and Coral Bay
need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including
first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
Communities between Mardie and Port Hedland should listen for the next advice.
People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life threatening situation
call 000. For more safety tips visit http://www.fesa.wa.gov.au
Details of Tropical Cyclone Iggy at 5:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 20.0 degrees South 111.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 977 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Saturday 28 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued at 9:07 am WST on Saturday 28 January 2012
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Mardie to Coral Bay,
including Exmouth and Onslow.
A Cyclone WATCH is current between Whim Creek to Mardie and Coral Bay to Cape
Cuvier and adjacent inland parts of the west Pilbara.
The Cyclone WATCH from Whim Creek to Port Hedland has been cancelled.
At 8:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category 2 was relocated and estimated to
be
380 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and
610 kilometres west of Karratha and
moving south southeast at 9 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Iggy is expected to steadily intensify as it moves to the
southeast towards the Northwest Cape.
Gales may develop near the Pilbara coast between Ningaloo and Mardie tonight
including Exmouth and Onslow extending south to Coral Bay Sunday morning. There
is the risk of Destructive winds in excess of 125 kilometres per hour
developing between Onslow and Ningaloo during Sunday. Should Iggy take a more
easterly track then gales could extend further east to Whim Creek including the
Karratha/Dampier region during Sunday. Gales are no longer expected to extend
as far east as Port Hedland.
Heavy rainfall is likely in coastal parts of the Pilbara over the weekend and
there will continue to be large swells along the Pilbara and Kimberley coasts.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Mardie and
Coral Bay including the communities of Mardie, Onslow, Exmouth and Coral Bay
need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including
first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
Communities between Whim Creek and Cape Cuvier should listen for the next
advice.
People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life threatening situation
call 000. For more safety tips visit http://www.fesa.wa.gov.au
Details of Tropical Cyclone Iggy at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 20.0 degrees South 111.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 65 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 976 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Saturday 28 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 9:07 am WST on Saturday 28 January 2012
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Mardie to Coral Bay,
including Exmouth and Onslow.
A Cyclone WATCH is current between Whim Creek to Mardie and Coral Bay to Cape
Cuvier and adjacent inland parts of the west Pilbara.
The Cyclone WATCH from Whim Creek to Port Hedland has been cancelled.
At 8:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category 2 was relocated and estimated to
be
380 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and
610 kilometres west of Karratha and
moving south southeast at 9 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Iggy is expected to steadily intensify as it moves to the
southeast towards the Northwest Cape.
Gales may develop near the Pilbara coast between Ningaloo and Mardie tonight
including Exmouth and Onslow extending south to Coral Bay Sunday morning. There
is the risk of Destructive winds in excess of 125 kilometres per hour
developing between Onslow and Ningaloo during Sunday. Should Iggy take a more
easterly track then gales could extend further east to Whim Creek including the
Karratha/Dampier region during Sunday. Gales are no longer expected to extend
as far east as Port Hedland.
Heavy rainfall is likely in coastal parts of the Pilbara over the weekend and
there will continue to be large swells along the Pilbara and Kimberley coasts.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Mardie and
Coral Bay including the communities of Mardie, Onslow, Exmouth and Coral Bay
need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including
first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
Communities between Whim Creek and Cape Cuvier should listen for the next
advice.
People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life threatening situation
call 000. For more safety tips visit http://www.fesa.wa.gov.au
Details of Tropical Cyclone Iggy at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 20.0 degrees South 111.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 65 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 976 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Saturday 28 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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