SPAC:TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F(91P or 93P?)

[yulou]

91PINVEST.15kts-1010mb-15.0S-169.9E
in Fiji Area?

[yulou]

FMS：TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD07F CENTRE [999HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 17.0S 167.0E
AT 290600 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST IS AROUND 29C.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 29/0848 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD07F CENTRE [999HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 17.0S 167.0E
AT 290600 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST IS AROUND 29C.

ORGANISATION HAS IMRPROVED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER THE EASTERN FLANK IN THE PAST 24HOURS AND
REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. LLCC DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE. THE SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE EAST OF AN EASTWARD MOVING UPPER
TROUGH AND IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS TO 500HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTHEAST
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[Hurricanehink]

I'm hoping that this does not become a tropical storm before the end of the month. According to Gary Padgett - http://www.typhoon2000.ph/garyp_mgtcs/jan01.txt - there have only been two times on record of there not being a tropical storm by February 1, those being the 44-45 season and the 00-01 season.

[Chacor]

Er, if this is 91P why does the topic say 99S?

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[yulou]

Er, if this is 91P why does the topic say 99S?

you are right
sorry,i made a mistake last night,because Djo won,and i was too excited

Fiji's forecast:Max-40kt

[yulou]

SLP increased.Will it be annexed by 09F?

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F [1000HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 167.8E AT
300600 UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING EAST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED
ON MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER
TROUGH AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
REGION ALOFT. DEPRESSION LIES IN A REGION OF MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL SHEAR. SST IS AROUND 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM IS
BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY INTO
A REGION OF DECREASING SHEAR.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 30/2008 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F [999HPA] WAS RE-LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 162.3E AT
301800 UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTANT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT TROUGH. DEPRESSION LIES IN A REGION OF LOW SHEAR. SST IS
AROUND 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY INTO A REGION OF
DECREASING SHEAR.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared, looking less organized

[yulou]

Latest infrared, looking less organized

NRL and FMS divide,maybe now 91P is 09F!

91PINVEST.15kts-1010mb-18.3S-174.8E
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F [999HPA] LOCATED NEAR 19.0S 173.5E AT
310000UTC.

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.3S 162.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILLA, VANUATU.
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC EXISTS WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ), WHICH HAS BECOME
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY
DATA REVEALS 20 TO 25 WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS INDICATE A SHARPLY DEFINED AREA OF
DEEP MOISTURE WITHIN THE TROUGH. A 301931Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS THICK
AND ABUNDANT CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF
THE LLCC. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ESTIMATED AT 15 KNOTS AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL-DEVELOPED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
JUST SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE
SPCZ WILL KEEP THE LLCC MOVING PARALLEL TO THE SHEAR GRADIENT.
DYNAMIC MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN INDICATING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[yulou]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 30/2343 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F [999HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 162.0E AT
302100UTC. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT
IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25
KNOTS.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON TD07F, REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ISSUED BY RSMC FIJI.
*********************************************************************
********

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F [999HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 173.5E AT
302100UTC MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON
MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON TD09F, REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ISSUED BY RSMC FIJI.


NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 01/0151 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F [997HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 172.7E AT
010000 UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION REMAINS
PERSISTANT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF 250 HPA RIDGE
AXIS, DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND JUST NORTH OF THE 250 HPA
JET. DEPRESSION LIES IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR AND IS
BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY A DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW. SST IS AROUND 27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.40 WRAP YIELDS T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS. FT
BASED ON DT, MET AND PT AGREES.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS THEN SOUTHWEST.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY FOR TD07F WILL BE ISSUED AT OR
AROUND 010800UTC.

[HURAKAN]

latest infrared

[yulou]

VMS & FMS:07F "eat" 09F
JTWC:09F "eat" 07F????
who is right?:double:

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 01/0751 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F [997HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2S 172.5E AT
010600 UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHERLY AT 20 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION STARTED TO DETERIORATE SIGNIFICANTLY AS OF MIDDAY TODAY.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DETACHED FROM THE LLCC DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF STRONG SHEAR. SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTH. SST AROUND 26
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE MOVING THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION. THIS MIGHT BE DUE TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F.