SPO: JASMINE - Tropical Cyclone (10P)

[Chacor]

AXAU22 ABRF 051244
IDQ20068
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1244 UTC 05/02/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasmine
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 17.0S
Longitude: 154.9E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards:east [075 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 978 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 06/0000: 17.0S 157.4E: 090 [165]: 060 [110]: 976
+24: 06/1200: 17.2S 160.0E: 120 [220]: 065 [120]: 972
+36: 07/0000: 17.5S 162.6E: 150 [280]: 065 [120]: 972
+48: 07/1200: 17.9S 165.3E: 185 [345]: 070 [130]: 969
+60: 08/0000: 18.7S 167.7E: 230 [430]: 070 [130]: 965
+72: 08/1200: 19.7S 169.3E: 280 [520]: 065 [120]: 968
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone centre position based on IR and microwave imagery, showing deep
convection located to the west of the low level circulation centre. System
organisation continues to improve under a favourable upper level diffulent
pattern. Jasmine is expected to gradually intensify over the next 48 hours due
to moderate deep layer shear while continuing to move eastwards.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 05/1900 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1855 UTC 05/02/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasmine
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.8S
Longitude: 156.5E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards:east [082 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 980 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 06/0600: 16.8S 158.7E: 090 [165]: 060 [110]: 975
+24: 06/1800: 17.0S 160.9E: 120 [220]: 065 [120]: 972
+36: 07/0600: 17.3S 163.1E: 150 [280]: 065 [120]: 972
+48: 07/1800: 17.6S 165.4E: 185 [345]: 070 [130]: 968
+60: 08/0600: 18.4S 167.5E: 230 [430]: 070 [130]: 965
+72: 08/1800: 19.7S 169.0E: 280 [520]: 065 [120]: 968
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone centre position based on 1732UTC MTSAT IR and 1437UTC AMSUB
85GHz imagery. Position poor.

Intensity based on Dvorak embedded centre with embedded distance of 0.5 degrees
though with CDG cloud top temperatures. 1400UTC SATCON agrees with 63kt [one
minute] mean winds.

Deep convection generally to the north and west of LLCC with moderate E'ly shear
of around 15 knots. Strong upper divergence in all quadrants over the past 6
hours despite this shear.

Global models are consistent with E'ly forecast path and further development
over the next 48 hours.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/0100 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Continues to become better organized

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 158.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 158.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.5S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.0S 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.6S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.8S 169.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 23.4S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 25.9S 176.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 27.0S 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 159.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE BANDING AND OVERALL
ORGANIZATION AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS SUBDUED. A 060554Z
SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS NOW WRAPPING
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED UPON THE IMPROVING SATELLITE
SIGNATURES AND DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND ABRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 10P IS
LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS, AND APPROXIMATELY FIVE DEGREES
EAST OF A POINT SOURCE. AN ANIMATED SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATES THAT THE OUTFLOW IS BECOMING MORE RADIAL IN NATURE BUT
FAVORS THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING EASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A PERSISTENT NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 24, AFTER WHICH AN
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM. THIS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS TRACK WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM IN BETWEEN THE ISLANDS OF
NEW CALEDONIA AND VANUATU. AROUND TAU 96 THE TRACK SHOULD BECOME
MORE EASTWARDLY AGAIN ONCE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR. TC 10P IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS UNTIL IT TRACKS OVER COOLER WATER SOUTH OF 24 DEGREES SOUTH
LATITUDE. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS TRACK SCENARIO, WITH THE FORECAST TRACK POSITIONED VERY
CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 23
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z AND 070900Z.
//
NNNN

[Chacor]

Up to 60 knots (10-min), now in Fiji's area:

WTPS12 NFFN 061200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 06/1442 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 978HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 160.2E
AT 061200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60
KNOTS.
WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND ABOVE 33
KNOTS WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS SAME IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM REMAINS IN A REGION OF
STRONG DIFFLUENT ENHANCED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED TO THE EAST
BY STRONG WESTERLY STEERING AND LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.9 WRAP YIELDING
T4.0/4.0/S0.0/24HRS. CYCLONE STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AS
IT REMAINS IN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON AN
EASTWARD MOVEMENT AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 17.6S 162.6E MOV E AT 12 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 18.1S 165.2E MOV E AT 12 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 19.1S 167.8E MOV ESE AT 13 KT WITH 70
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 20.6S 169.5E MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 062000 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

Becoming better organized

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 006//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 17.5S 161.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 161.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 17.7S 163.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.1S 165.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.1S 168.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 20.6S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 23.2S 172.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 25.1S 176.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 25.9S 179.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 162.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY DEEPENED AS CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
65 KNOTS FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES ABOUT 5 DEGREES SOUTH OF A
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (05-15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST IS SUPPRESSING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS QUITE ROBUST, AS EVIDENCED
ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE VORTEX IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO
TAKE A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD DIP BY TAU 36 AS AN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, CURRENTLY ANCHORED OVER WESTERN SAMOA, ASSUMES
STEERING. BY TAU 96. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL NUDGE THE SYSTEM ON A FLATTER, EASTWARD TRAJECTORY.
TC JASMINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A MODEST INTENSIFICATION UP TO
TAU 72 AS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL OPENS UP WITH A SWITCH IN THE
STEERING PATTERN BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTERWARDS WITH
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS, INCLINED ON SPEEDING THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSELY IN LINE WITH
CONSENSUS UP TO THE EXTENDED TAUS WHERE IT IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO
OFFSET NOGAPS UNLIKELY ACCELERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 061800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

very impressive at the moment

[Chacor]

WTPS12 NFFN 061800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 06/2004 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 978HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7S 161.4E
AT 061800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 60 KNOTS.
WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN
30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN
180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM REMAINS IN A REGION OF
STRONG DIFFLUENT ENHANCED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY STEERING AND LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.85 WRAP YIELDING
T4.0/4.0/S0.0/24HRS. CYCLONE STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AS
IT REMAINS IN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A
EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 18.0S 164.1E MOV E AT 13 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 18.7S 166.7E MOV ESE AT 13 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 20.0S 169.0E MOV ESE AT 13 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 21.8S 170.9E MOV SE AT 13 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 070200 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 07/0212 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 955HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4S
163.0E AT 070000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
13 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80
KNOTS.
WINDS ABOVE 64 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS
WITH EYE FORMING. SYSTEM REMAINS IN A REGION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE
ENHANCED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST. OUTFLOW REMAINS
GOOD. CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY STRONG
WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING AND LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON DG EYE WITH LG SURROUND YIELDING
T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS.
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

FORECASTS :AT 12 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 18.7S 165.6E MOV E AT 12 KT
WITH 80 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 19.6S 168.1E MOV E AT 12 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :AT 36 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 21.1S 170.0E MOV ESE AT 13 KT
WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 22.9S 171.6E MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 070800 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[Chickenzilla]

Look at that eye

It is probably 120 kt + .
My opinion and statements DO NOT represent the opinion of the NHC, NWS, or any other professional agency, organization, or group. For official information, please refer to the RSMC Fiji's products.

[Chacor]

Up to 90 knots (10-min) from FMS.

Can we get an update on the topic title to Severe TC?

WTPS12 NFFN 070600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 07/0800 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 945HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5S
164.5E AT 070600 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 14 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 90
KNOTS.
WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS WITH EYE FORMING. SYSTEM REMAINS IN A REGION OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED BY A TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST. OUTFLOW REMAINS
GOOD. CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY STRONG
WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING AND LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON OW EYE WITH LG SURROUND YIELDING
T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS.
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

FORECASTS :AT 12 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 19.3S 167.0E MOV ESE AT 12
KT WITH 85 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 20.5S 169.1E MOV ESE AT 12 KT WITH 80
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :AT 36 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 22.1S 170.7E MOV SE AT 11 KT
WITH 75 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 23.6S 172.0E MOV SE AT 10 KT
WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 071400 UTC.

[Chacor]

JTWC has 100 knots 1-minute:

WTPS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 007//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 18.7S 164.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 164.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.6S 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.8S 169.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.4S 170.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 23.9S 172.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 25.7S 175.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 26.0S 179.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 26.3S 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 165.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 24 NM WIDE RAGGED EYE.
ANALYSIS OF THE PAST MICROWAVE MOSAICS INDICATES THAT TC 10P FIRST
SPAWNED THE EYE FEATURE SOMEWHERE AROUND 07/1705Z, AS EVIDENT FROM
THE SSMI IMAGE DURING THAT TIME. MORE RECENT MICROWAVE DATA (070538Z
SSMI AND 070645Z SSMIS) REVEALS THAT THE DEEP EYEWALL CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES, THE VISIBLE EYE IN MSI, AND AGREEABLE
CENTER FIX LOCATIONS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND NFFN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM
BOTH PGTW AND NFFN. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES AND IS POSITIONED ABOUT 08
DEGREES SOUTH OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS (NER) AND ABOUT 05
DEGREES EAST OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS
WEAK AT 05-10 KNOTS DUE TO THE RELATIVELY FAST EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK SPEEDS, ENABLING THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN-PHASE WITH THE
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT SOME IMPINGEMENT ON THE SOUTH AND WEST
PERIPHERIES DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER, IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED AS FLOW INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF TC 10P PROPAGATES
FURTHER EASTWARDS. TC JASMINE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NER AND IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD
DIP BY TAU 36 AS AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, CURRENTLY
ANCHORED OVER WESTERN SAMOA, ASSUMES STEERING. BY TAU 96, A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD NUDGE THE
SYSTEM ON A FLATTER, EASTWARD TRAJECTORY. TC JASMINE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE A MODEST INTENSIFICATION UP TO TAU 24 AS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL OPENS UP WITH A SWITCH IN THE STEERING PATTERN BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTERWARDS WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS,
INCLINED ON SPEEDING THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST. THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSELY IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
072100Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 07/1655 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 942HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4S
165.6E AT 071200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
11 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 95
KNOTS.
WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 12 HOURS.
COLD CONVECTION PERSIST AROUND LLCC. EYE STILL WELL DEFINED IN IR.
OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF A SHORT-WAVE UPPER
TROUGH CENTER IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONE STEERED BY WEST TO
NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON OW EYE IN B
SURROUND YIELDING T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS. DT = 6.0, PT= 5.5 AND
MET=5.5.
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT AND GRADUALLY EASING
THE SYSTEM.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 19.7S 168.0E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 95 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 21.3S 170.0E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 23.0S 171.4E MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 24.4S 172.7E MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 072000 UTC.

[Chacor]

Has peaked and is weakening.

WTPS12 NFFN 071800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 07/1959 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 948HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3S
167.1E AT 071800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
14 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 90
KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. EYE PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED BUT
STILL DISCERNIBLE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST BUT RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE. JASMINE LIES DOWNSTREAM OF A 250 HPA SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN
A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST
BY DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON MG
EYE IN LG SURROUND YIELDING T5.0/5.5/D1.0/24HRS. DT = 5.0, PT= 5.0
AND MET=5.0.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS MOVE JASMINE SOUTHEAST WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 20.4S 169.1E MOV E AT 12 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 21.8S 170.6E MOV E AT 12 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 23.1S 171.8E MOV ESE AT 13 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 24.3S 173.2E MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 080200 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... showing its power

[Chickenzilla]

By JTWC:

Animated multispectral
satellite imagery (msi) shows the system maintained a compact,
highly axisymmetric, circular convective banding eye measuring
approximately 20 nm. A 080631z ssmis 91 ghz image clearly shows a
nearly uniform ring of deep convection around the low level
circulation center (LLCC) with a lack of deep convective features in
the systems peripheries. Tc 10p has presented this convective
structure for the last 24 hours (evident from the microwave pass
mosaic) shortly after it went through a period of rapid
intensification. Such characteristics like, nearly circular large
eye diameter, symmetric annulus of deep convection surrounding the
LLCC, and general lack of deep convective elements beyond the
annulus, indicate that tc Jasmine could be classified as an annular
tropical cyclone.

[HURAKAN]

Jasmine remains very impressive