SPO: CYRIL - Tropical Cyclone (11P)

[Chacor]

WTPS11 NFFN 070600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 07/0758 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL CENTRE [985HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4S 169.9W
AT 070600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GMSIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 22 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50
KNOTS, EASING TO 45 KNOTS WIYHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
INCREASED WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHWEST. EYE EVIDENT IN PAST VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS BECOME CLOUD
FILLED IN LAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF 250 HPA DIFFLUENT
REGION. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO WEST BUT REMAINS GOOD ELSEWHERE. CIMMS
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY A NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER
MEAN FLOW INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SHEAR. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
0.8 WRAP YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS
AND EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON PROJECTED PATH.

GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAINS A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITHOUT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 24.4S 165.6W MOV ESE AT 25KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 27.2S 160.6W MOV ESE AT 26 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON CYRIL WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
071400 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

WTPS32 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 003//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 23.0S 167.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 167.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 26.4S 161.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.3S 155.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 31.5S 149.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 23.8S 165.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (CYRIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 070720Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THAT TC 11P REMAINS A MIDGET TC WITH
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION CONCENTRATED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF
THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND
EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 11P IS UNDER MODERATE (20-25 KNOT)
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AS IT RESIDES WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. WHILE THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT REMAINS
VERY FAVORABLE FOR TC CYRIL, ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM DUE TO SPEED
DIVERGENCE, THE VWS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARDS AND OVERCOME THE BENEFITS OF GOOD DIVERGENCE. TC 11P
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY OF A DEEPLY-ENTRENCHED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE STR, THEREBY INCREASING VWS.
ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE TO
25 DEGREES CELSIUS AND BELOW. TC CYRIL WILL DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO TAU 36. BY TAU 48 THE
SPREAD IN GUIDANCE INCREASES WITH THE WBAR TRACKING AGAINST THE
MAJORITY OF AIDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. ALL OTHER AIDS CONTINUE A
SOUTHEAST TRACK WELL INTO THE MID-LATITUDES BUT TC 11P SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE THAT TIME. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN-LINE WITH
THE MODEL CONSENSUS UP TO TAU 36 WHERE IT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
THE CONSENSUS TO MAINTAIN CONGRUENT TRACK SPEEDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080300Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 07/1711 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL 11F CENTRE 987HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9S
165.9W AT 071500 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
30 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE
QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE
QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW
QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW
QUADRANT.

OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION DECREASED
PAST SIX HOURS. PRIMARY BANDS REMAIN WRAPPED AROUND THE LLCC FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST. SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH AND BENEATH A UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO
WEST BUT REMAINS GOOD ELSEWHERE. CIMMS ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS
BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY A NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND FLOW.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.7 WRAP GIVING DT =3.0, MET AND PT AGREE,
YIELDING T3.0/3.5/D0.5/24HRS. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS..

THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON ACCELERATING THE SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO COOLER SST REGION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 080300 UTC 26.7S 161.1W MOV ESE AT 25 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 081500 UTC 28.9S 155.8W MOV ESE AT 25 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON CYRIL.

[Chacor]

Wellington has taken over:

GALE WARNING 150
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
Tropical Cyclone CYRIL [987hPa] centre was located near 25.0 South 164.2 West at 071800 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 25.0S 164.2W at 071800 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southeast 30 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 180 nautical miles of centre in the eastern quadrant and within 60 nautical miles of centre in the southwest semicircle and within 240 nautical miles of centre in the northern quadrant.

Forecast position near 28.9S 159.6W at 080600 UTC
and near 30.8S 154.2W at 081800 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 146.

[Chacor]

WTNZ41 NZKL 080034
GALE WARNING 154
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL 990HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5 SOUTH
161.1 WEST AT 080000 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 27.5S 161.1W AT 080000 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 29.9S 156.9W AT 081200 UTC
AND NEAR 31.3S 152.0W AT 090000 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 150.

[HURAKAN]

Latest .. weakening fast

[Chacor]

Still hanging on at 40 knots as a TC:

WTNZ41 NZKL 081235
GALE WARNING 164
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL 990HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5 SOUTH
154.5 WEST AT 081200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 30.5S 154.5W AT 081200 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE SECTOR FROM EAST THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 32.0S 148.2W AT 090000 UTC
AND NEAR 33.0S 141.5W AT 091200 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 158.

[HURAKAN]

not much left

[Chacor]

GALE WARNING 174
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
AT 081800UTC
Low 994hPa, former Cyclone CYRIL, near 31S 152W moving eastsoutheast 20kt.
1. Within 180 nautical miles of low in northern quadrant: Clockwise 35kt.
2. Within 120 nautical miles of low in southeast semicircle: Clockwise 35kt easing next 6-12 hours.
Gale areas moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 164.