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SIO: GIOVANNA - Post-Tropical
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 171840
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/9/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/17 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.3 S / 42.8 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/18 06 UTC: 26.3 S / 43.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/02/18 18 UTC: 26.1 S / 45.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/02/19 06 UTC: 25.6 S / 46.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/02/19 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 47.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/02/20 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 48.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/02/20 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 48.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/21 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 47.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5- CI=3.5-
GIOVANNA IS INTENSIFYING ... OVERALL PATTERN IS SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN 24
HOURS AGO AND RECENTLY A CURVED BAND AT 0.8° HAS DEVELOPPED AROUND
THE CENTER. GIOVANNA IS STILL LOCATED BETWEEN TWO MID LEVEL HIGHS GENERATING
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS OVER THE SYSTEM.
LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCES ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
FORECAST TRACK:
TOMORROW, THE EASTERN RIDGE IS LIKELY TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EASTWARDS
AND GIOVANNA SHOULD BE STEERED BY AN WESTERLY TO WESTNORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE SOUTHEASTERN BORDER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGHS LOCATED OVER
SOUTH AFRICA AND ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MIDLAT WESTERLIES.
ON THIS PATTERN, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE
EASTNORTHEAST.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AGAIN GRADUALLY:
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, GIOVANNA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERSEA AND
SHOULD REACH BACK SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.ON AND AFTER THIS
RANGE, TRACK UNCERTAINTY IMPACT STRONGLY THE INTENSITY FORECAST,
DEPENDING ON AN OVERSEA OR INLAND TRACK.
CURRENT RSMC FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND OFFER AN
OVERSEA TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN MALAGASY COASTLINE THEN A
WEAKENING DUE TO A WESTERLY SHEARED CONSTRAINT AND DISSIPATION
INLAND OVER THE THE SOUTHEASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE. THE 12Z RUN
FROM ECMWF, PARTLY INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST PROCESS, BRING THE SYSTEM
ON A MORE FASTER AND EASTERLY TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY.
INHABITANTS OF SOUTHERN MALAGASY AREAS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY
FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM: CURRENT FORECAST BRING THE SYSTEM
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR SUNDAY BETWEEN CAP
SAINTE-MARIE AND FORT-DAUPHIN. GIVEN THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTY, A
LANDFALL BETWEEN ITAMPOLO (150 KM SOUTH OF TULEAR) AND FORT-DAUPHIN
IN THE TIMEFRAME FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT IS LIKELY.
THE OPTION OF A THREAT TO MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE IS NOW EXCLUDED.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/9/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/17 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.3 S / 42.8 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/18 06 UTC: 26.3 S / 43.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/02/18 18 UTC: 26.1 S / 45.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/02/19 06 UTC: 25.6 S / 46.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/02/19 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 47.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/02/20 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 48.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/02/20 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 48.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/21 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 47.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5- CI=3.5-
GIOVANNA IS INTENSIFYING ... OVERALL PATTERN IS SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN 24
HOURS AGO AND RECENTLY A CURVED BAND AT 0.8° HAS DEVELOPPED AROUND
THE CENTER. GIOVANNA IS STILL LOCATED BETWEEN TWO MID LEVEL HIGHS GENERATING
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS OVER THE SYSTEM.
LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCES ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
FORECAST TRACK:
TOMORROW, THE EASTERN RIDGE IS LIKELY TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EASTWARDS
AND GIOVANNA SHOULD BE STEERED BY AN WESTERLY TO WESTNORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE SOUTHEASTERN BORDER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGHS LOCATED OVER
SOUTH AFRICA AND ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MIDLAT WESTERLIES.
ON THIS PATTERN, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE
EASTNORTHEAST.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AGAIN GRADUALLY:
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, GIOVANNA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERSEA AND
SHOULD REACH BACK SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.ON AND AFTER THIS
RANGE, TRACK UNCERTAINTY IMPACT STRONGLY THE INTENSITY FORECAST,
DEPENDING ON AN OVERSEA OR INLAND TRACK.
CURRENT RSMC FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND OFFER AN
OVERSEA TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN MALAGASY COASTLINE THEN A
WEAKENING DUE TO A WESTERLY SHEARED CONSTRAINT AND DISSIPATION
INLAND OVER THE THE SOUTHEASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE. THE 12Z RUN
FROM ECMWF, PARTLY INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST PROCESS, BRING THE SYSTEM
ON A MORE FASTER AND EASTERLY TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY.
INHABITANTS OF SOUTHERN MALAGASY AREAS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY
FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM: CURRENT FORECAST BRING THE SYSTEM
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR SUNDAY BETWEEN CAP
SAINTE-MARIE AND FORT-DAUPHIN. GIVEN THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTY, A
LANDFALL BETWEEN ITAMPOLO (150 KM SOUTH OF TULEAR) AND FORT-DAUPHIN
IN THE TIMEFRAME FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT IS LIKELY.
THE OPTION OF A THREAT TO MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE IS NOW EXCLUDED.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 180050
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 37/9/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/18 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 43.2 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :52 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 80
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/18 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 44.8 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/02/19 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 46.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/02/19 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/02/20 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/02/20 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 51.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/02/21 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 51.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/22 00 UTC: 25.0 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0 CI=4.0
GIOVANNA KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING AND NOW SHOW A RAGGED EYE PATTERN
WITH A RAUW MANUAL DT AT 4.5. PRESENT INTENSITY ESTIMATION IS BASED ON
DT 6 HOURS AVERAGE (DT INTERPOLATED DURING MET7 ECLIPSE PERIOD
ACCORDING TO MSG IMAGERY). UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXCELLENT TO THE
SOUTH WITH ENHANCED OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OFTHE SUBTROPICALRIDGE BUT RATHER LIMITED TO THE NORTH.
GIOVANNA IS STILL LOCATED BETWEEN TWO MID LEVEL HIGHS GENERATING
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS OVER THE SYSTEM. TOMORROW, THE EASTERN
RIDGE IS LIKELY TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EASTWARDS AND GIOVANNA SHOULD BE
STEERED BY AN WESTERLY TO WESTNORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN BORDER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGHS LOCATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA
AND ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MIDLAT WESTERLIES.ON THIS PATTERN, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE ON A EASTWARDS TO
EASTNORTHEASTWARDS TRACK. BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT, GUIDANCE ARE STILL IN
POOR AGREEEMENT WITH TWO POSSIBILITIES: A CONTINUING EASTWARDS TRACK
OR A RATHER SHARP NORTHWARDS TURN ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTS OF
MADAGASCAR. LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT GIVE A STRONGER WEIGHT TO
THE EASTWARDS SOLUTION ... SO IS THE CURRENT FORECAST.
ENVIRONMENTALS CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINU TO IMPROVE TODAY WITH A
BETTER OUTFLOW EQUATORWARD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT
MORE AGRESSIVE BUT COULD BE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE AS IT REMAINS
BELOW THE ALADIN AND ECMWF SOLUTION THAT BRING GIOVANNA TO THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE LEVEL ...
MONDAY AND AFTER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE WITH LOWER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, STRONGER SHEAR AND A
LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED TO A
SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE.
INHABITANTS OF SOUTHERN MALAGASY AREAS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY
FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM: IF THE CURRENT FORECAST LEAVE THE
SYSTEM MORE OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUSLY, A LANDFALL OF GIOVANNA, MAINLY
OVER COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN CAP SAINTE-MARIE AND FORT-DAUPHIN , STILL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY !
REGARDLESS OF THIS POTENTIAL LANDFALL, WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE OVER THIS AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT WITH STRONG WINDS
(GUSTS UP TO 100 KM/H) AND HEAVY RAINS SPELLS.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 37/9/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/18 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 43.2 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :52 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 80
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/18 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 44.8 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/02/19 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 46.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/02/19 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/02/20 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/02/20 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 51.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/02/21 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 51.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/22 00 UTC: 25.0 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0 CI=4.0
GIOVANNA KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING AND NOW SHOW A RAGGED EYE PATTERN
WITH A RAUW MANUAL DT AT 4.5. PRESENT INTENSITY ESTIMATION IS BASED ON
DT 6 HOURS AVERAGE (DT INTERPOLATED DURING MET7 ECLIPSE PERIOD
ACCORDING TO MSG IMAGERY). UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXCELLENT TO THE
SOUTH WITH ENHANCED OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OFTHE SUBTROPICALRIDGE BUT RATHER LIMITED TO THE NORTH.
GIOVANNA IS STILL LOCATED BETWEEN TWO MID LEVEL HIGHS GENERATING
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS OVER THE SYSTEM. TOMORROW, THE EASTERN
RIDGE IS LIKELY TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EASTWARDS AND GIOVANNA SHOULD BE
STEERED BY AN WESTERLY TO WESTNORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN BORDER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGHS LOCATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA
AND ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MIDLAT WESTERLIES.ON THIS PATTERN, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE ON A EASTWARDS TO
EASTNORTHEASTWARDS TRACK. BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT, GUIDANCE ARE STILL IN
POOR AGREEEMENT WITH TWO POSSIBILITIES: A CONTINUING EASTWARDS TRACK
OR A RATHER SHARP NORTHWARDS TURN ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTS OF
MADAGASCAR. LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT GIVE A STRONGER WEIGHT TO
THE EASTWARDS SOLUTION ... SO IS THE CURRENT FORECAST.
ENVIRONMENTALS CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINU TO IMPROVE TODAY WITH A
BETTER OUTFLOW EQUATORWARD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT
MORE AGRESSIVE BUT COULD BE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE AS IT REMAINS
BELOW THE ALADIN AND ECMWF SOLUTION THAT BRING GIOVANNA TO THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE LEVEL ...
MONDAY AND AFTER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE WITH LOWER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, STRONGER SHEAR AND A
LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED TO A
SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE.
INHABITANTS OF SOUTHERN MALAGASY AREAS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY
FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM: IF THE CURRENT FORECAST LEAVE THE
SYSTEM MORE OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUSLY, A LANDFALL OF GIOVANNA, MAINLY
OVER COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN CAP SAINTE-MARIE AND FORT-DAUPHIN , STILL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY !
REGARDLESS OF THIS POTENTIAL LANDFALL, WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE OVER THIS AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT WITH STRONG WINDS
(GUSTS UP TO 100 KM/H) AND HEAVY RAINS SPELLS.
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-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 180716 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 38/9/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.3 S / 43.6 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :52 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 190 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 160 SW: 150 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/18 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 45.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/02/19 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 47.8 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/02/19 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/02/20 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 51.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/02/20 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/02/21 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 52.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/22 06 UTC: 25.1 S / 55.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0+- CI=4.5-
DT 6 HOURS AVERAGE HAS REACHED 4.5- AT 0300Z. AFTER THIS MAXIMUM, PATTERN
IS CLEARLY DETERIORATING. 0209Z TRMM AND 0428Z F18 SHOW THIS RECENT
DETERIORATION. SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO 0300Z
INTENSITY PEAK. GIOVANNA SEEMS UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF THE COAST OFSOUTH MADAGASCAR.
GIOVANNA IS STILL LOCATED BETWEEN TWO MID LEVEL HIGHS GENERATING
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS OVER THE SYSTEM. WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS,
THE EASTERN RIDGE MIGHT SHIFT GRADUALLY EASTWARD AND GIOVANNA
SHOULD BE STEERED BY A WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
SOUTH-EASTERN BORDER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGHS LOCATED OVER SOUTH
AFRICA AND ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MID-LATITUDES WESTERLIES. SO,
SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE ON AN EASTWARDS TO EASTNORTHEASTWARDS TRACK. BEYOND SUNDAY EVENING, NWP MODELS ARE STILL IN
POOR AGREEMENT WITH TWO POSSIBILITIES: A CONTINUING EASTWARDS TRACK
OR A RATHER SHARP NORTHWARDS TURN ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTS OF
MADAGASCAR OR OVER A SOUTHWARDS TURN. LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT GIVE A STRONGER WEIGHT TO THE EASTWARDS SOLUTION. SO, IS THE
CURRENT RSMC FORECAST.
NOW, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GOOD WITH A
GOOD DIVERGENCE AND A VERY WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, BUT THE
PROXIMITY OF SOUTHERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR MIGHT CONTINUE TO INFLIC
THE SYSTEM.
MONDAY AND AFTER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE WITH A LESS GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, A STRENGTHENING
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION
FROM THE SOUTH-WEST ASSOCIATED TO A SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE.
INHABITANTS OF SOUTHERN MALAGASY AREAS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY
FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST BRING THE
SYSTEM AT ABOUT 100 KM FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING, A LANDFALL IS NOT
TOTALLY EXCLUDED (MAINLY OVER COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN CAP SAINTEMARIE AND FORT-DAUPHIN) ON SATURDAY EVENING OR SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS OF THIS POTENTIAL LANDFALL, WEATHER CONDITIONS MIGHT
DETERIORATE OVER THIS AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT WITH STRONG WINDS
(GUSTS UP TO 100 KM/H) AND HEAVY RAINS SPELLS.
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 38/9/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.3 S / 43.6 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :52 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 190 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 160 SW: 150 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/18 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 45.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/02/19 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 47.8 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/02/19 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/02/20 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 51.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/02/20 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/02/21 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 52.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/22 06 UTC: 25.1 S / 55.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0+- CI=4.5-
DT 6 HOURS AVERAGE HAS REACHED 4.5- AT 0300Z. AFTER THIS MAXIMUM, PATTERN
IS CLEARLY DETERIORATING. 0209Z TRMM AND 0428Z F18 SHOW THIS RECENT
DETERIORATION. SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO 0300Z
INTENSITY PEAK. GIOVANNA SEEMS UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF THE COAST OFSOUTH MADAGASCAR.
GIOVANNA IS STILL LOCATED BETWEEN TWO MID LEVEL HIGHS GENERATING
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS OVER THE SYSTEM. WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS,
THE EASTERN RIDGE MIGHT SHIFT GRADUALLY EASTWARD AND GIOVANNA
SHOULD BE STEERED BY A WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
SOUTH-EASTERN BORDER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGHS LOCATED OVER SOUTH
AFRICA AND ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MID-LATITUDES WESTERLIES. SO,
SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE ON AN EASTWARDS TO EASTNORTHEASTWARDS TRACK. BEYOND SUNDAY EVENING, NWP MODELS ARE STILL IN
POOR AGREEMENT WITH TWO POSSIBILITIES: A CONTINUING EASTWARDS TRACK
OR A RATHER SHARP NORTHWARDS TURN ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTS OF
MADAGASCAR OR OVER A SOUTHWARDS TURN. LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT GIVE A STRONGER WEIGHT TO THE EASTWARDS SOLUTION. SO, IS THE
CURRENT RSMC FORECAST.
NOW, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GOOD WITH A
GOOD DIVERGENCE AND A VERY WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, BUT THE
PROXIMITY OF SOUTHERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR MIGHT CONTINUE TO INFLIC
THE SYSTEM.
MONDAY AND AFTER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE WITH A LESS GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, A STRENGTHENING
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION
FROM THE SOUTH-WEST ASSOCIATED TO A SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE.
INHABITANTS OF SOUTHERN MALAGASY AREAS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY
FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST BRING THE
SYSTEM AT ABOUT 100 KM FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING, A LANDFALL IS NOT
TOTALLY EXCLUDED (MAINLY OVER COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN CAP SAINTEMARIE AND FORT-DAUPHIN) ON SATURDAY EVENING OR SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS OF THIS POTENTIAL LANDFALL, WEATHER CONDITIONS MIGHT
DETERIORATE OVER THIS AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT WITH STRONG WINDS
(GUSTS UP TO 100 KM/H) AND HEAVY RAINS SPELLS.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 181839
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 40/9/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/18 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 45.9 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/19 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 48.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/02/19 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/02/20 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 51.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/02/20 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 51.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2012/02/21 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2012/02/21 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/22 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5- CI=4.0-
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IN RELATIONSHIP
WITH AN APPROACHING NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL JET, GIOVANNA BEGINS
TO UNDERGO A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. GIOVANNA SHIFT EASTWARDS UNEDR THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WESTERLY
TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH-EASTERN BORDER OF THE MID
LEVEL HIGHS LOCATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA AND ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
MID-LATITUDES WESTERLIES.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON ACCELERATING EASTWARDS THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS UP TO SUNDAY EVENING.
BEYOND, NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER AGREEMENT FOR A VERY CLEAR SLOWING
DOWN AND RECURVING TRACK NORTHWARDS TOWARD SOUTH-EASTERN COAST
OF MADAGASCAR.
ON SUNDAY LATE AND AFTER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE UNDERGOING A STRENGTHENING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
SYSTEM MIGHT RAPIDLY WEAKEN.
INHABITANTS OF SOUTHERN MALAGASY AREAS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY
FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TRANSITING AT MORE
THAN 130 KM AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE , BUT WE CAN NOT TOTALLY EXCLUDE
THAT SYSTEM APPROACHES CLOSER TO THE COAST. PROBABILITY FOR LANDFALL
IS VERY POOR.
GUSTS UP TO 90 KM/H AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS SHOULD STILL OCCUR OVER
THE SOUTHERN MALAGASY AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 12H TO 18 HOURS.
CORRECTIVE ISSUED DUE TO FALSE NUMBERED WARNING.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 40/9/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/18 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 45.9 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/19 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 48.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/02/19 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/02/20 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 51.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/02/20 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 51.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2012/02/21 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2012/02/21 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/22 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5- CI=4.0-
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IN RELATIONSHIP
WITH AN APPROACHING NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL JET, GIOVANNA BEGINS
TO UNDERGO A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. GIOVANNA SHIFT EASTWARDS UNEDR THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WESTERLY
TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH-EASTERN BORDER OF THE MID
LEVEL HIGHS LOCATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA AND ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
MID-LATITUDES WESTERLIES.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON ACCELERATING EASTWARDS THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS UP TO SUNDAY EVENING.
BEYOND, NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER AGREEMENT FOR A VERY CLEAR SLOWING
DOWN AND RECURVING TRACK NORTHWARDS TOWARD SOUTH-EASTERN COAST
OF MADAGASCAR.
ON SUNDAY LATE AND AFTER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE UNDERGOING A STRENGTHENING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
SYSTEM MIGHT RAPIDLY WEAKEN.
INHABITANTS OF SOUTHERN MALAGASY AREAS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY
FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TRANSITING AT MORE
THAN 130 KM AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE , BUT WE CAN NOT TOTALLY EXCLUDE
THAT SYSTEM APPROACHES CLOSER TO THE COAST. PROBABILITY FOR LANDFALL
IS VERY POOR.
GUSTS UP TO 90 KM/H AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS SHOULD STILL OCCUR OVER
THE SOUTHERN MALAGASY AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 12H TO 18 HOURS.
CORRECTIVE ISSUED DUE TO FALSE NUMBERED WARNING.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 190046
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 41/9/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/19 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.1 S / 47.2 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/19 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 49.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/02/20 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 51.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/02/20 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/02/21 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 51.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2012/02/21 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
72H: 2012/02/22 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 51.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5- CI=4.0-
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IN RELATIONSHIP
WITH AN APPROACHING NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL JET, GIOVANNA BEGINS
TO UNDERGO A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
GIOVANNA SHIFT EASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WESTERLYTO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH-EASTERN BORDER OF THE MID
LEVEL HIGHS LOCATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA AND ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
MID-LATITUDES WESTERLIES.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING EASTWARDS THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS UP TO SUNDAY LATE.
BEYOND, NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER AGREEMENT FOR A VERY CLEAR SLOWING
DOWN AND RECURVING TRACK NORTHWARDS TOWARD SOUTH-EASTERN COAST
OF MADAGASCAR.
ON SUNDAY LATE AND AFTER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE UNDERGOING A STRENGTHENING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
SYSTEM MIGHT RAPIDLY WEAKEN.
INHABITANTS OF SOUTH-EASTERN MALAGASY AREAS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY
FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED SHIFTING AWAY FROM
THE COASTLINE BUT GUSTS UP TO 90 KM/H AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS SHOULD
STILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH-EASTERN MALAGASY AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 41/9/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/19 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.1 S / 47.2 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/19 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 49.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/02/20 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 51.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/02/20 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/02/21 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 51.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2012/02/21 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
72H: 2012/02/22 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 51.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5- CI=4.0-
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IN RELATIONSHIP
WITH AN APPROACHING NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL JET, GIOVANNA BEGINS
TO UNDERGO A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
GIOVANNA SHIFT EASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WESTERLYTO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH-EASTERN BORDER OF THE MID
LEVEL HIGHS LOCATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA AND ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
MID-LATITUDES WESTERLIES.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING EASTWARDS THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS UP TO SUNDAY LATE.
BEYOND, NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER AGREEMENT FOR A VERY CLEAR SLOWING
DOWN AND RECURVING TRACK NORTHWARDS TOWARD SOUTH-EASTERN COAST
OF MADAGASCAR.
ON SUNDAY LATE AND AFTER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE UNDERGOING A STRENGTHENING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
SYSTEM MIGHT RAPIDLY WEAKEN.
INHABITANTS OF SOUTH-EASTERN MALAGASY AREAS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY
FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED SHIFTING AWAY FROM
THE COASTLINE BUT GUSTS UP TO 90 KM/H AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS SHOULD
STILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH-EASTERN MALAGASY AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 191302 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 43/9/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.7 S / 50.6 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 1.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :26 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/20 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/02/20 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 52.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/02/21 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2012/02/21 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
60H: 2012/02/22 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 51.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T= 3.5 AND CI=4.5
CLOUD PATTERN HAS DEGRADED RAPIDLY WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS.
SYSTEM IS NOW UNDERGOING A MODERATE UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND IS MOVING IN DRY AIR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE (CF. RECENT WV IMAGERY).
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING RATHER RAPIDLY AND ITS STEERINGFLOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON MONDAY, IT IS ALSO FORECAST TO ADOPT A SLOWER, GENERALLY
NORTHWARD TRACK, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC
SUBTROPICAL BELT STRENGTHENING IN ITS SOUTH.
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE, WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DUE TO
AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TRANSITING SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR.
THE RESIDUAL LOW IS FORECAST TO FILL UP ON WEDNESDAY, WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MASCARENE ISLANDS.
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 43/9/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.7 S / 50.6 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 1.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :26 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/20 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/02/20 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 52.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/02/21 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2012/02/21 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
60H: 2012/02/22 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 51.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T= 3.5 AND CI=4.5
CLOUD PATTERN HAS DEGRADED RAPIDLY WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS.
SYSTEM IS NOW UNDERGOING A MODERATE UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND IS MOVING IN DRY AIR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE (CF. RECENT WV IMAGERY).
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING RATHER RAPIDLY AND ITS STEERINGFLOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON MONDAY, IT IS ALSO FORECAST TO ADOPT A SLOWER, GENERALLY
NORTHWARD TRACK, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC
SUBTROPICAL BELT STRENGTHENING IN ITS SOUTH.
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE, WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DUE TO
AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TRANSITING SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR.
THE RESIDUAL LOW IS FORECAST TO FILL UP ON WEDNESDAY, WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MASCARENE ISLANDS.
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 41
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 191857
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 44/9/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/19 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.1 S / 52.7 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.1/S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :41 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/20 06 UTC: 26.1 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/02/20 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 53.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/02/21 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
48H: 2012/02/21 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 51.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
60H: 2012/02/22 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T= 3.5 AND CI=4.0+
CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE CONSIDERABLY WITHIN THE LAST 6
HOURS, EVEN A RESIDUAL EYE SEEMS TO EXIST ALOFT. AT THIS TIME, LLCC
IS DIFFICULT TO LOCALIZE AND 1800Z POSITION HAS BEEN EXTRAPOLED WITH
1646Z F18 MW PICTURE. SYSTEM UNDERGOES A MODERATE WESTERLY WINDSHEAR
AND MOVES IN DRY AIR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE (CF. RECENT WV IMAGERY).
SYSTEM MIGHT KEEP ON TRACKING EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS BY CONTINUING TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY. SO, ITS STEERING
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LOWER TROPOSPHERE. BEYOND, NWP MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIKE ECMWF ENSEMBLE RUN. TWO OPTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD RECURVE OR A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
RECURVE. RSMC KEEP NORTHWARD OPTION (RIDGE SITUATED IN THE WEST THEN
SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEME).
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY
DEFAVOURABLE WITH A WESTERLY THEN SOUTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
DUE TO AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TRANSITING SOUTH-EAST OF
MADAGASCAR.
THE RESIDUAL LOW IS FORECAST TO FILL UP ON WEDNESDAY, WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MASCARENE ISLANDS.=
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 44/9/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/19 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.1 S / 52.7 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.1/S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :41 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/20 06 UTC: 26.1 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/02/20 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 53.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/02/21 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
48H: 2012/02/21 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 51.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
60H: 2012/02/22 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T= 3.5 AND CI=4.0+
CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE CONSIDERABLY WITHIN THE LAST 6
HOURS, EVEN A RESIDUAL EYE SEEMS TO EXIST ALOFT. AT THIS TIME, LLCC
IS DIFFICULT TO LOCALIZE AND 1800Z POSITION HAS BEEN EXTRAPOLED WITH
1646Z F18 MW PICTURE. SYSTEM UNDERGOES A MODERATE WESTERLY WINDSHEAR
AND MOVES IN DRY AIR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE (CF. RECENT WV IMAGERY).
SYSTEM MIGHT KEEP ON TRACKING EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS BY CONTINUING TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY. SO, ITS STEERING
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LOWER TROPOSPHERE. BEYOND, NWP MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIKE ECMWF ENSEMBLE RUN. TWO OPTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD RECURVE OR A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
RECURVE. RSMC KEEP NORTHWARD OPTION (RIDGE SITUATED IN THE WEST THEN
SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEME).
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY
DEFAVOURABLE WITH A WESTERLY THEN SOUTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
DUE TO AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TRANSITING SOUTH-EAST OF
MADAGASCAR.
THE RESIDUAL LOW IS FORECAST TO FILL UP ON WEDNESDAY, WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MASCARENE ISLANDS.=
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