FMMT 132100Z 34045G62KT 4000 RA FEW007 BKN017 OVC033 ///// Q0985
Winds at Tamatave already up to 52 mph.
SIO: GIOVANNA - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
WTIO30 FMEE 140034
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/9/20112012
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 48.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 300 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 210 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 160 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/14 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 45.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, INLAND
24H: 2012/02/15 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 42.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2012/02/15 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 40.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/02/16 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 39.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/02/16 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/02/17 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/18 00 UTC: 26.1 S / 36.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/02/19 00 UTC: 26.4 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
GIOVANNA HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR ANDOVORANTO MONDAY 13 AT ABOUT 2200Z.
GUSTS HAS PROBABLY EXCEED 120 KM/H IN AN AREA FROM NOSY-VARIKA IN THE SOUTH TO SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND
IN THE NORTH, 150 KM/H FROM MAHANORO IN THE SOUTH TO TOAMASINA IN THE NORTH AND 200 KM/H FROM VAO
MANDRY IN THE SOUTH UP TO 50 KM IN THE NORTH OF ANDOVORANTO.
COASTAL FLOODING HAVE PROBABLY OCCURED IN THE SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL UP TO 50 KM SOUTH OF ANDOVORAN
TO IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE COMBINED EFFECT OF A STORM SURGE ESTIMATED AT 2.5 TO 3.0 METERS AND A
MORE THAN 12M HIGH CYCLONIC SWELL.
THIS AREA HAS PROBABLY UNDERGO WITHIN THE SAME TIME GUSTS FROM 200 TO 250 KM/H
GIOVANNA SHOULD BE BACK OVER SEA IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY WITHIN
A FAVOURABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WITH A DECREASING EASTERLY SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOS
ER TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. LATEST ECMWF RUN SUGGESTS A RAPID RE-INTENSIFICATION THAT IS REFLECTED
BY THE OFFICIAL RSMC FORECAST.
ON AND AFTER TAU 84 SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS A MID-LAT
ITUDES TROUGH TRANSITING IN ITS SOUTH.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/9/20112012
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 48.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 300 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 210 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 160 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/14 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 45.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, INLAND
24H: 2012/02/15 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 42.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2012/02/15 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 40.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/02/16 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 39.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/02/16 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/02/17 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/18 00 UTC: 26.1 S / 36.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/02/19 00 UTC: 26.4 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
GIOVANNA HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR ANDOVORANTO MONDAY 13 AT ABOUT 2200Z.
GUSTS HAS PROBABLY EXCEED 120 KM/H IN AN AREA FROM NOSY-VARIKA IN THE SOUTH TO SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND
IN THE NORTH, 150 KM/H FROM MAHANORO IN THE SOUTH TO TOAMASINA IN THE NORTH AND 200 KM/H FROM VAO
MANDRY IN THE SOUTH UP TO 50 KM IN THE NORTH OF ANDOVORANTO.
COASTAL FLOODING HAVE PROBABLY OCCURED IN THE SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL UP TO 50 KM SOUTH OF ANDOVORAN
TO IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE COMBINED EFFECT OF A STORM SURGE ESTIMATED AT 2.5 TO 3.0 METERS AND A
MORE THAN 12M HIGH CYCLONIC SWELL.
THIS AREA HAS PROBABLY UNDERGO WITHIN THE SAME TIME GUSTS FROM 200 TO 250 KM/H
GIOVANNA SHOULD BE BACK OVER SEA IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY WITHIN
A FAVOURABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WITH A DECREASING EASTERLY SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOS
ER TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. LATEST ECMWF RUN SUGGESTS A RAPID RE-INTENSIFICATION THAT IS REFLECTED
BY THE OFFICIAL RSMC FORECAST.
ON AND AFTER TAU 84 SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS A MID-LAT
ITUDES TROUGH TRANSITING IN ITS SOUTH.
0 likes
Down to 30 kt at 06z.
WTIO30 FMEE 140621
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/9/20112012
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (EX-GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 47.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 14 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: /
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 / 130 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/14 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 44.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, INLAND
24H: 2012/02/15 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 41.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/02/15 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 40.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/02/16 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/02/16 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 38.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/02/17 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 37.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/18 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 37.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/02/19 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 39.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
AT 06Z, THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY AT 40KM WEST OF TANANARIVE WHERE 30KT OF NO
RTHERLY WINDS WERE OBSERVED. THE MAXIMUM WINDS (10 MIN AVERAGE) MAY REACH 35KT UNDER THE DEEP CONV
ECTION AND ON RELIEF. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EX-GIOVANNA IS STILL STRONG AND RATHER WELL
ORGANIZED.
RESIDUAL VORTEX OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE BACK OVER SEA IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL TONIGHT IN THE VIC
INITY OF MORONDAVA.
WITH A FAVOURABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT, A DECREASING EASTERLY SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLO
SER TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THE BOTH SIDES OF THE SYSTEM, AND A VERY GOO
D OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT, SYSTEM SHOULD RE-DEEPEN RAPIDLY IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. AT THE END OF T
HE FORECAST RANGE, THE WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN.
SYSTEM IS TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARD, ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A STRONG RIDGE CENTRED SOUTH OF LA R
EUNION ISLAND. IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND TO SLOW DO
WN PROGRESSIVELY, IN THE DIRECTION OF A BAROMETRIC COL THAT WILL TRANSIT IN THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAM
BIQUE CHANNEL. ON FRIDAY, SYSTEM SHOULD RECURVE SOUTH-EASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD UNDER THE COMBINE
D INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE IN ITS EAST AND OF A SHALLOW MID-LATITUDES TROUGH IN ITS SOUTH, IN THE MID
DLE TROPOSPHERE.
NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TRACK FOR THE NEXT 4HOURS. BEYOND, FORECASTS SPRE
AD (CF. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF CEP), SOME OF THEM FORECAST A ZONAL TRACK OV
ER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDING SOUTH-WESTWARD, OTHERS MODELS FORECAST A SOUTH-EAST TO EASTWAR
D BENDING CONSISTENT WITH THE PROBABLE REGENERATION OF THE SYSTEM AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE STEERING
FLOW IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. THE ACTUAL FORECAST OF THE RSMC-LA REUNION REFLECTS THIS OPTION THAT
IS THE CEP NWP MODEL ONE.
WTIO30 FMEE 140621
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/9/20112012
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (EX-GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 47.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 14 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: /
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 / 130 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/14 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 44.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, INLAND
24H: 2012/02/15 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 41.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/02/15 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 40.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/02/16 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/02/16 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 38.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/02/17 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 37.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/18 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 37.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/02/19 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 39.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
AT 06Z, THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY AT 40KM WEST OF TANANARIVE WHERE 30KT OF NO
RTHERLY WINDS WERE OBSERVED. THE MAXIMUM WINDS (10 MIN AVERAGE) MAY REACH 35KT UNDER THE DEEP CONV
ECTION AND ON RELIEF. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EX-GIOVANNA IS STILL STRONG AND RATHER WELL
ORGANIZED.
RESIDUAL VORTEX OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE BACK OVER SEA IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL TONIGHT IN THE VIC
INITY OF MORONDAVA.
WITH A FAVOURABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT, A DECREASING EASTERLY SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLO
SER TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THE BOTH SIDES OF THE SYSTEM, AND A VERY GOO
D OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT, SYSTEM SHOULD RE-DEEPEN RAPIDLY IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. AT THE END OF T
HE FORECAST RANGE, THE WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN.
SYSTEM IS TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARD, ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A STRONG RIDGE CENTRED SOUTH OF LA R
EUNION ISLAND. IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND TO SLOW DO
WN PROGRESSIVELY, IN THE DIRECTION OF A BAROMETRIC COL THAT WILL TRANSIT IN THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAM
BIQUE CHANNEL. ON FRIDAY, SYSTEM SHOULD RECURVE SOUTH-EASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD UNDER THE COMBINE
D INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE IN ITS EAST AND OF A SHALLOW MID-LATITUDES TROUGH IN ITS SOUTH, IN THE MID
DLE TROPOSPHERE.
NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TRACK FOR THE NEXT 4HOURS. BEYOND, FORECASTS SPRE
AD (CF. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF CEP), SOME OF THEM FORECAST A ZONAL TRACK OV
ER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDING SOUTH-WESTWARD, OTHERS MODELS FORECAST A SOUTH-EAST TO EASTWAR
D BENDING CONSISTENT WITH THE PROBABLE REGENERATION OF THE SYSTEM AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE STEERING
FLOW IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. THE ACTUAL FORECAST OF THE RSMC-LA REUNION REFLECTS THIS OPTION THAT
IS THE CEP NWP MODEL ONE.
0 likes
WTIO30 FMEE 141111
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/9/20112012
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (EX-GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 46.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: NIL
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): / KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/15 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 43.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2012/02/15 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 41.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/02/16 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 40.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/02/16 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 39.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/02/17 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/02/17 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 37.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/18 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 37.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2012/02/19 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 38.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
EX-GIOVANNA IS TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE STREERING
INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP RIDGE OF LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERE CENTRED SOUTH
OF LA REUNION ISLAND. IT IS FORECAST TO KEEP ON THIS TRACK FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS BUT SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY SLOW DOWN IN THE DIRECTION A
BAROMETRIC COL TRANSITING IN THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. IT
IS FORECAST TO RECURVE SOUTH-EASTWARD ON SATURDAY, AND SPEED SHOULD
REMAIN SLOW, DUE TO A WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE.
NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE TRACK DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. BEYOND THE FORECASTED TRACKS ARE SPREAD OUT. SOME NWP MODELS
FORECAST A EAST TO WEST TRACK, TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST, OTHERS
LIKE ECMWF FORECAST THE SOUTH-EASTWARD BENDING, MORE OR LESS RAPIDLY.
THE PRESENT FORECASTED TRACK OF THE RSMC-LA REUNION IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF MODEL. ACCORDING TO THE LAST RUN OF ECMWF, IT IS LESS RAPID
THAN THE PREVIOUS RSMC'S FORCASTED TRACK.
ON THIS TRACK, RESIDUAL VORTEX SHOULD BE BACK OVER SEA IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL LATE TUESDAY IN THE VICINITY OF MORONDAVA.
WITH A FAVOURABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT, A DECREASING EASTERLY
SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSER TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, A GOOD
LOW LEVELS FEEDING ON THE BOTH SIDES OF THE LOW, AND WARM SST, SYSTEM
SHOULD REGENERATE RAPIDLY OVER THE CHANNEL.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO UNDERGO
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND SHOULD WEAKEN.=
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/9/20112012
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (EX-GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 46.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: NIL
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): / KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/15 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 43.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2012/02/15 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 41.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/02/16 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 40.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/02/16 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 39.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/02/17 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/02/17 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 37.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/18 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 37.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2012/02/19 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 38.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
EX-GIOVANNA IS TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE STREERING
INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP RIDGE OF LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERE CENTRED SOUTH
OF LA REUNION ISLAND. IT IS FORECAST TO KEEP ON THIS TRACK FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS BUT SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY SLOW DOWN IN THE DIRECTION A
BAROMETRIC COL TRANSITING IN THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. IT
IS FORECAST TO RECURVE SOUTH-EASTWARD ON SATURDAY, AND SPEED SHOULD
REMAIN SLOW, DUE TO A WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE.
NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE TRACK DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. BEYOND THE FORECASTED TRACKS ARE SPREAD OUT. SOME NWP MODELS
FORECAST A EAST TO WEST TRACK, TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST, OTHERS
LIKE ECMWF FORECAST THE SOUTH-EASTWARD BENDING, MORE OR LESS RAPIDLY.
THE PRESENT FORECASTED TRACK OF THE RSMC-LA REUNION IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF MODEL. ACCORDING TO THE LAST RUN OF ECMWF, IT IS LESS RAPID
THAN THE PREVIOUS RSMC'S FORCASTED TRACK.
ON THIS TRACK, RESIDUAL VORTEX SHOULD BE BACK OVER SEA IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL LATE TUESDAY IN THE VICINITY OF MORONDAVA.
WITH A FAVOURABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT, A DECREASING EASTERLY
SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSER TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, A GOOD
LOW LEVELS FEEDING ON THE BOTH SIDES OF THE LOW, AND WARM SST, SYSTEM
SHOULD REGENERATE RAPIDLY OVER THE CHANNEL.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO UNDERGO
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND SHOULD WEAKEN.=
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Chickenzilla
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 109
- Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2011 7:31 am
- Location: Croatia (Southeast Europe)
[/URL]
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTXS31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNING NR 012//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 19.3S 45.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 45.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.5S 42.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.7S 41.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 22.5S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.0S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 23.7S 38.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 24.7S 37.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 25.3S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 44.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (GIOVANNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED VERY QUICKLY OVER THE ISLAND,
WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PASSING JUST SOUTH OF
ANTANANARIVO AT APPROXIMATELY 140430Z. AS EXPECTED, THE CONVECTION
HAS STRUGGLED OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MADAGASCAR, AND LOW-
TO MID- LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOW EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE
MAXIMUM WIND SPEED REPORTED IN THE CAPITOL CITY WAS 32 KNOTS (10-MIN
AVERAGE) GUSTING TO 48 KNOTS. DESPITE THE DISRUPTION TO THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION, THE FAST TRANSLATION SPEED SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO RE-
EMERGE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND QUICKLY REORGANIZE. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS
IN LINE WITH FIXES FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 12S SHOULD EMERGE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
APPROXIMATELY THREE DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) AXIS, IN AN AREA WITH 15-20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
SSTS IN THE CHANNEL ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT. TC
12S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
LAYER STR TO THE EAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NOGAPS MODEL, THE
REST OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING A SHIFT IN
THE FORECAST TRACK. THE ECMWF, GFS, AND GFDN MODELS NOW DEPICT THE
SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE STR AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. THE STEERING RIDGE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND CONTINUE
TRACKING TC 12S AROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY, RESULTING IN A CURVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND TAU 96. PREVIOUSLY, THE MODEL GUIDANCE
CALLED FOR A STR OVER AFRICA TO TAKEOVER STEERING, CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS, GIVING WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF MODEL
WHICH HAS BEEN FORECASTING THIS MOTION FOR THE LAST THREE CYCLES.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND 151500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S
(THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 141852
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/9/20112012
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (EX-GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 44.5 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 0
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 0 / 0 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/15 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 42.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/02/15 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 40.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/02/16 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 39.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/02/16 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 38.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/02/17 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/02/17 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 36.9 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/18 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 36.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/02/19 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 38.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
EX-GIOVANNA IS GOING BACK OVER SEA IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL NEAR
MORONDAVA. IT IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD TO SOUTH-WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURES OF LOW TO MIDTROPOSPHERE CENTRED SOUTH OF LA REUNION ISLAND. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
ON THIS TRACK FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS BUT SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY SLOWDOWN TOWARD A BAROMETRIC PASS TRANSITING IN THE SOUTH OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. ON SATURDAY, IT SHOULD RECURVE SOUTH-EASTWARD
AND ITS SPEED MIGHT REMAIN SLOW DUE TO A WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE IN
THE MID-TROPOSPHERE BETWEEN TWO RIDGES.
NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE TRACK DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. BEYOND, THEY ARE DISCREPANCIES. SOME NWP MODELS
FORECAST A WESTWARD TRACK, TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST. OTHERS
LIKE ECMWF FORECAST THE SOUTH-EASTWARD RECURVE, MORE OR LESS RAPIDLY.
PRESENT RSMC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO ECMWF MODEL.
ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE. EASTERLY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR DISAPPEARS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UNDER AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. LOW LEVELS FEEDING IS GOOD ON BOTH SIDES OF THE LOW. OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT IS VERY HIGH. SYSTEM SHOULD REGENERATE RAPIDLY OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SST DECREASE A BIT AND SYSTEM SHOULD
BEGIN TO UNDERGO WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND SO BEGIN TO WEAKEN.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/9/20112012
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (EX-GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 44.5 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 0
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 0 / 0 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/15 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 42.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/02/15 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 40.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/02/16 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 39.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/02/16 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 38.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/02/17 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/02/17 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 36.9 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/18 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 36.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/02/19 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 38.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
EX-GIOVANNA IS GOING BACK OVER SEA IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL NEAR
MORONDAVA. IT IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD TO SOUTH-WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURES OF LOW TO MIDTROPOSPHERE CENTRED SOUTH OF LA REUNION ISLAND. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
ON THIS TRACK FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS BUT SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY SLOWDOWN TOWARD A BAROMETRIC PASS TRANSITING IN THE SOUTH OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. ON SATURDAY, IT SHOULD RECURVE SOUTH-EASTWARD
AND ITS SPEED MIGHT REMAIN SLOW DUE TO A WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE IN
THE MID-TROPOSPHERE BETWEEN TWO RIDGES.
NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE TRACK DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. BEYOND, THEY ARE DISCREPANCIES. SOME NWP MODELS
FORECAST A WESTWARD TRACK, TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST. OTHERS
LIKE ECMWF FORECAST THE SOUTH-EASTWARD RECURVE, MORE OR LESS RAPIDLY.
PRESENT RSMC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO ECMWF MODEL.
ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE. EASTERLY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR DISAPPEARS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UNDER AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. LOW LEVELS FEEDING IS GOOD ON BOTH SIDES OF THE LOW. OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT IS VERY HIGH. SYSTEM SHOULD REGENERATE RAPIDLY OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SST DECREASE A BIT AND SYSTEM SHOULD
BEGIN TO UNDERGO WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND SO BEGIN TO WEAKEN.
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HurricaneBill
- Category 5
- Posts: 3420
- Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
- Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA
Re: SIO: GIOVANNA - Intense Tropical Cyclone (12S)
These photos are from around Antananarivo, Madagascar's capital. It is located in central Madagascar.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 150105
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/9/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 (EX-GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/15 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3 S / 43.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 17 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/0 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/15 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 41.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/02/16 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 39.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/02/16 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/02/17 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 37.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/02/17 12 UTC: 24.8 S / 36.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/02/18 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 35.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/19 00 UTC: 25.8 S / 36.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/02/20 00 UTC: 26.1 S / 37.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0
EX-GIOVANNA SEEMS TO GO ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR BY
TRACKING SOUTH-WESTWARD, BUT NOW LLCC IS DIFFICULT TO LOCALIZE (OVER
SEA NEAR ANDRANOPASY). DEEP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER SEA NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24/36 HOURS ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF
LOW TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES CENTRED IN THE SOUTH OF REUNION
ISLAND. IT MIGHT RAPIDLY INTENSIFY WITH GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
(WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VERY HIGH AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL INFLOW). NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE TRACK DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. BEYOND, THEY ARE DISCREPANCIES. SOME NWP MODELS
FORECAST A WESTWARD TRACK, TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST. OTHERS
FORECAST A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND EVEN A SOUTH-EASTWARD
RECURVE ON SATURDAY ACCORDING TO ECMWF NWP MODEL. PRESENT RSMC
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO ECMWF MODEL. HOWEVER, ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FORECAST IS ALSO HIGHLY DISPERSED AT THIS TAU.
THIS IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES SEEM TO BE PRODUCT BY INTENSITY FORECASTS
THAT ARE MORE OR LESS STRONG BY DIFFERENT MODELS AND SO A STEERING
FLOW LOCATED AT MORE OR LESS HIGH LEVELS (LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES IN
THE SOUTH OF SYSTEM ACCORDING TO WESTWARD TRACKS). FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IS IMPORTANT AT TAU 48 AND BEYOND.
ON SATURDAY, LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE IS NOT EXCLUDED. BUT NOW, THAT
IS NOT THE RSMC OPTION FOR OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/9/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 (EX-GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/15 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3 S / 43.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 17 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/0 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/15 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 41.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/02/16 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 39.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/02/16 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/02/17 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 37.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/02/17 12 UTC: 24.8 S / 36.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/02/18 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 35.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/19 00 UTC: 25.8 S / 36.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/02/20 00 UTC: 26.1 S / 37.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0
EX-GIOVANNA SEEMS TO GO ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR BY
TRACKING SOUTH-WESTWARD, BUT NOW LLCC IS DIFFICULT TO LOCALIZE (OVER
SEA NEAR ANDRANOPASY). DEEP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER SEA NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24/36 HOURS ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF
LOW TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES CENTRED IN THE SOUTH OF REUNION
ISLAND. IT MIGHT RAPIDLY INTENSIFY WITH GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
(WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VERY HIGH AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL INFLOW). NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE TRACK DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. BEYOND, THEY ARE DISCREPANCIES. SOME NWP MODELS
FORECAST A WESTWARD TRACK, TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST. OTHERS
FORECAST A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND EVEN A SOUTH-EASTWARD
RECURVE ON SATURDAY ACCORDING TO ECMWF NWP MODEL. PRESENT RSMC
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO ECMWF MODEL. HOWEVER, ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FORECAST IS ALSO HIGHLY DISPERSED AT THIS TAU.
THIS IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES SEEM TO BE PRODUCT BY INTENSITY FORECASTS
THAT ARE MORE OR LESS STRONG BY DIFFERENT MODELS AND SO A STEERING
FLOW LOCATED AT MORE OR LESS HIGH LEVELS (LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES IN
THE SOUTH OF SYSTEM ACCORDING TO WESTWARD TRACKS). FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IS IMPORTANT AT TAU 48 AND BEYOND.
ON SATURDAY, LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE IS NOT EXCLUDED. BUT NOW, THAT
IS NOT THE RSMC OPTION FOR OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.
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