SIO: HILWA - Moderate Tropical Storm (13S)

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 10:54am WST on Friday the 10th of February 2012
Valid until midnight WST Monday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
At 8am WST Thursday a low was located near 11S 116E. The low is expected to move
steadily west over the next three days. It is not expected to develop into a
tropical cyclone during Saturday or Sunday but has a moderate chance of
developing into a cyclone on Monday. This system will not affect mainland
communities. The low may bring squally storms to Christmas Island for a period
late on Saturday or during Sunday but gales are not likely.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Saturday :Low
Sunday :Low
Monday :Moderate

There are no other significant lows in the region and none are expected to
develop over the next three days.


NOTES: Development Potential is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.
Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/

[HURAKAN]

Potential Cyclones:
At 10am WST Saturday a low 1007hpa was located near 11S 109E. The low is
expected to move steadily west over the next three days. It is not expected to
develop into a tropical cyclone during Sunday but has a moderate chance of
developing into a cyclone on Monday or Tuesday. This system will not affect
mainland communities. The low may bring squally storms to Christmas Island from
late today, but gales are not likely.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Sunday :Low
Monday :Moderate
Tuesday :Moderate

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S
104.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 100.0E, APPROXIMATELY 145 NM EAST
OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. A 12-HOUR ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ANIMATION SHOWS THE FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE WEST-SOUTH
PERIMETER OF THE SYSTEM HAS DEEPENED AND ARCED TIGHTER INTO A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, A SERIES
OF MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICTS STEADY CONSOLIDATION OF
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC; THE LATEST, A 121455Z AMSU-
B PASS, DEPICTS A FULL WRAP OF LOW LEVEL REFLECTIVITIES FLANKED TO
THE SOUTH BY A SPIRALING FEEDER BAND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS,
THE DISTURBANCE IS 5 DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF A RIDGE AXIS IN A ZONE
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (05-15 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS, THE VWS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. ALSO, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION INDICATES
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[HURAKAN]

latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

Potential Cyclones:
At midday WST Monday a low 1007hpa was located near 12S 98E. The low may bring
squally thunderstorms to Cocos Island during Monday, but gales are not likely.
The low is expected to move steadily west. The Low has a moderate chance of
developing into a cyclone on Tuesday, but it is expected to move west of 090E
early on Wednesday. This system will not affect mainland communities.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Tuesday :Moderate
Wednesday :Low
Thursday :Very Low

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

13/1130 UTC 12.2S 96.1E T2.0/2.0 99S -- Southeast Indian

30 kt

[HURAKAN]

WTXS21 PGTW 131600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1S 96.6E TO 13.0S 86.7E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 131130Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 96.1E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S
100.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 96.1E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM WEST OF
COCOS ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 131209Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE LLCC. RECENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM COCOS ISLAND SHOW WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST
AT 20 KNOTS AND 1006 MB. CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND KNES INDICATE 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED A FEW DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INTO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
141600Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[HURAKAN]

WTXS32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 13.6S 90.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 90.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 14.2S 87.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 14.8S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.4S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.9S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.5S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.5S 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.6S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 89.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1130 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPROVED AS THE PREVIOUS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS CONSOLIDATED
INTO TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A MOSAIC OF RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SUPPORTS THIS TREND, WITH A 140321Z AMSU-B COLOR COMPOSITE
REFLECTING THE IMPROVING LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT TC 13S IS IN AN AREA OF 05-10 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) APPROXIMATELY THREE DEGREES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS. ANIMATED SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT TC
13S HAS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED AMSU-B IMAGE AS WELL AS THE PGTW AND KNES FIXES. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, AND IS AN AVERAGE OF THE
PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY. TC
13S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF A WELL
ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS TRACK SHOULD KEEP THE
SYSTEM IN A LOW VWS ENVIRONMENT AND ALONG A NEARLY CONSTANT PATH OF
29 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AT A NEARLY CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE, PEAKING AT 95 KNOTS NEAR
TAU 96. THE CURRENT NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED TO NOGAPS,
GFS, GFDN AND WBAR; HOWEVER, THESE AIDS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE TRACK DIRECTION AND SPEED. THE FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48, AND THEN SLIGHTLY FASTER THEREAFTER.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 142100Z AND 150900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN 131551ZFEB 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 131600) REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

latest track

[HURAKAN]

next name is Hilwa

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 141348
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/10/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
2.A POSITION 2012/02/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 89.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: 110 SW: 110 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): NIL
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/15 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 85.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2012/02/15 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 83.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2012/02/16 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2012/02/16 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 79.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
60H: 2012/02/17 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 77.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
72H: 2012/02/17 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 75.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/18 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 71.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
120H: 2012/02/19 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 65.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 AND CI=2.5
CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED IN A CURVED BAND DURING YESTERDAY NIGHT (CF.
TRMM 13/2330) SEEMS TO SUFFER OF THE DIURNAL EFFECT TODAY.
SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THESUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BELT EXISTING ON THE ALL WIDTH OF THE BASIN.
THIS LOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ITCZ HAS NO
MONSOON FEEDING. IT IS LOCATED BELOW THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AND UNDERGOES A WEAK NORTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, BUT IMPINGING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM.
AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS POORLY ANALYSE THIS LOW AND DO NOT FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE RATHER GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER LEVEL.

[Chacor]

Very different forecasts from JTWC and MF! One will end up with egg on their face...

[HURAKAN]

Very different forecasts from JTWC and MF! One will end up with egg on their face...

Yep, I posted the same in fb. Really interesting to see such a large spread!

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 141937
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/10/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
2.A POSITION 2012/02/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4 S / 87.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.5/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 28 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: 90 SW: 90 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 0 / 0 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/15 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 84.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2012/02/15 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 82.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
36H: 2012/02/16 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2012/02/16 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
60H: 2012/02/17 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
72H: 2012/02/17 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 74.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/18 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 70.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
120H: 2012/02/19 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 65.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5+ AND CI=2.5-
FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION IS VERY FLUCTUATING AND SYSTEM SEEMS
LESS WELL-ORGANIZED. 1554Z ASCAT SWATH IS NOT CENTRED BUT WE CAN SEE
THAT LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS WEAK AND WEAKLY EXTENDED.
SYSTEM RAPIDLY TRACKS WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OFTHE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES EXISTING IN THE SOUTH.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS POORLY ANALYZE THIS LOW AND DO NOT FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE RATHER GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER LEVEL. VERY POOR EQUATORWARD
LOW LEVEL INFLOW SEEMS BE THE MISSING INGREDIENT FOR INTENSIFICATION.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS32 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 87.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 87.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.1S 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.7S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.3S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.9S 77.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.8S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.7S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.3S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 87.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1000 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS WITH IMPROVED BANDING STRUCTURES OBSERVED IN A 141554Z
AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
CONSOLIDATION OF DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 13S
IS TRACKING ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF A WELL ESTABLISHED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS, AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT ALONG THE
FORECASTED TRACK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 13S IS LOCATED
IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, A
TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST IS ENHANCING THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 120 AS THE SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE, WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW VWS. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED DRAMATICALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, SHOWING A
SHARPER SOUTHWESTERN TRACK THAN DEPICTED IN THIS FORECAST. THE
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS FURTHER NORTH THAN ALL AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, WHICH LOSES TC 13S AFTER TAU
36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S
(GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

latest infrared

[HurricaneBill]

Let's hope La reunion's forecast pans out, otherwise Mauritius and La Reunion might be in for some trouble.

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 150049
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/10/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
2.A POSITION 2012/02/15 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 86.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 28 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: 110 SW: 110 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 0 / 0 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/15 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 83.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2012/02/16 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 81.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
36H: 2012/02/16 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2012/02/17 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 77.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
60H: 2012/02/17 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
72H: 2012/02/18 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 74.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/19 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 71.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
120H: 2012/02/20 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0- AND CI=2.5-
IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCALIZE THE LLCC AT THIS TIME, BUT A SMALL CLUSTER
PERSISTS OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF THE SYSTEM THAT SEEMS TO
UNDERGO A MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDSHEAR. 1554Z ASCAT SWATH
IS NOT CENTRED BUT WE CAN SEE THAT LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS
WEAK AND WEAKLY EXTENDED. SYSTEM MIGHT CONTINUE TO TRACK RAPIDLY THEN MORE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES
EXISTING IN THE SOUTH.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS POORLY ANALYZE THIS LOW AND DO NOT FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE RATHER GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER LEVEL. VERY POOR EQUATORWARD
LOW LEVEL INFLOW SEEMS TO BE THE MISSING INGREDIENT FOR
INTENSIFICATION. OTHERWISE A MODERATE EASTERLY TO NORTH-EASTERLY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR PERSISTS MORE OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.