WTPQ20 RJTD 180900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180900UTC 09.7N 112.5E POOR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 190900UTC 09.0N 110.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (01W)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Not known JMA to keep things going at T1.0 in the past...
WTPQ20 RJTD 181500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181500UTC 09.7N 112.5E POOR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 191500UTC 09.3N 111.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
WTPQ20 RJTD 181500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181500UTC 09.7N 112.5E POOR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 191500UTC 09.3N 111.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
0 likes
Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (01W)
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8N
112.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 113.1E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST
OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZATION
WHILE MEANDERING OVER THE SPRATLEYS. THE BROAD AND CLOUD-FREE LLCC
IS DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND HAS SHOWN A
FLAT 24-HR PRESSURE TREND. ALTHOUGH INFLOW IS WEAK OVER THE
EQUATORWARD SEMICIRCLE, OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE BORNEO COAST SHOW
CONSISTENT OFF-SHORE FLOW AND VISUAL IMAGERY REVEALS WELL-DEVELOPED
CLOUD BANDS SURROUNDING THE LLCC. THE LLCC IS IN 27 DEGREE SEA
WATERS WITH 15-20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE TOP OF THE
SYSTEM. ALL DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS A RESULT
OF CONVERGENCE IN THE MONSOONAL NORTHEASTERLIES AND IS DISPLACED
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. THE LLCC IS PERSISTING PRIMARILY
BECUASE OF INDUCED SPIN ON THE POLEWARD SIDE, WHICH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A MONSOONAL SURGE DRIVEN BY A 1032MB HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY
OVER SHANGHAI. AS THE HIGH EASES OFF-SHORE AND WEAKENS OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, THE INDUCED BOUNDARY LEVEL VORTICITY WILL EASE.
NONETHELESS, ANY POLEWARD DRIFT OF THE LLCC WILL BRING THE IT
UNDERNEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION AND INTO A REGION OF SHARPLY REDUCED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. CONVERSELY, ANY EQUATORWARD MOVEMENT WILL BRING
THE SYSTEM INTO AN AREA OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
PREVENT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
LLCC WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD AND FILL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. GIVEN THE INTEGRITY OF THE LLCC, THE
DEPTH OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT, AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LLCC TO LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS MEDIUM
112.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 113.1E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST
OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZATION
WHILE MEANDERING OVER THE SPRATLEYS. THE BROAD AND CLOUD-FREE LLCC
IS DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND HAS SHOWN A
FLAT 24-HR PRESSURE TREND. ALTHOUGH INFLOW IS WEAK OVER THE
EQUATORWARD SEMICIRCLE, OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE BORNEO COAST SHOW
CONSISTENT OFF-SHORE FLOW AND VISUAL IMAGERY REVEALS WELL-DEVELOPED
CLOUD BANDS SURROUNDING THE LLCC. THE LLCC IS IN 27 DEGREE SEA
WATERS WITH 15-20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE TOP OF THE
SYSTEM. ALL DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS A RESULT
OF CONVERGENCE IN THE MONSOONAL NORTHEASTERLIES AND IS DISPLACED
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. THE LLCC IS PERSISTING PRIMARILY
BECUASE OF INDUCED SPIN ON THE POLEWARD SIDE, WHICH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A MONSOONAL SURGE DRIVEN BY A 1032MB HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY
OVER SHANGHAI. AS THE HIGH EASES OFF-SHORE AND WEAKENS OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, THE INDUCED BOUNDARY LEVEL VORTICITY WILL EASE.
NONETHELESS, ANY POLEWARD DRIFT OF THE LLCC WILL BRING THE IT
UNDERNEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION AND INTO A REGION OF SHARPLY REDUCED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. CONVERSELY, ANY EQUATORWARD MOVEMENT WILL BRING
THE SYSTEM INTO AN AREA OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
PREVENT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
LLCC WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD AND FILL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. GIVEN THE INTEGRITY OF THE LLCC, THE
DEPTH OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT, AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LLCC TO LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS MEDIUM
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 41
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
JMA still believes this will develop into a tropical storm...
WTPQ20 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200600UTC 08.8N 111.5E FAIR
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 210600UTC 08.9N 110.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
WTPQ30 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TD LOCATED AT 08.8N 111.5E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 200600 UTC IS FAIR.
TD WILL BE STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=
WTPQ20 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200600UTC 08.8N 111.5E FAIR
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 210600UTC 08.9N 110.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
WTPQ30 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TD LOCATED AT 08.8N 111.5E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 200600 UTC IS FAIR.
TD WILL BE STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=
0 likes
Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (01W)
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N
113.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 111.6E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN
ORGANIZATION WHILE MEANDERING OVER THE SPRATLEY ISLANDS. THE LLCC
HAS CONSOLIDATED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND WELL FORMED
CLOUD BANDS ARE SPIRALING IN; HOWEVER, IT REMAINS NEARLY 100 NM
SOUTH OF THE LIMITED CONVECTION TAKING PLACE ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. THIS CONVECTION IS A RESULT OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG NORTHEASTERLY MONSOON FLOW. THIS FLOW HAS INDUCED
FAVORABLE SPIN ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF SYSTEM WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
PREVENTING THE LLCC FROM BECOMING COUPLED WITH THE CONVECTION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ALMOST DIRECTLY
UNDERNEATH A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). AS THE ANTICYCLONE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRONG MONSOONAL NORTHEASTERLIES MOVES AWAY, THE
SHEAR MAY RELAX ENOUGH FOR THE LLCC TO FINALLY COUPLE WITH THE
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, TIME IS RUNNING SHORT FOR THIS TO HAPPEN AS THE
CURRENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE AREA OF THE LLCC APPEARS TO
BE A MINIMALLY FAVORABLE 26-27 DEGREES AND DECREASING TOWARDS THE
VIETNAMESE COAST. ADDITIONALLY, IF THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTH IT
WILL ENCOUNTER AN AREA OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF VWS WHICH WOULD ALSO
PREVENT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
LLCC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD AND FILL. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE LLCC, THE EXPECTED DECREASE IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW
STRENGTH, AND THE CURRENT PROXIMITY OF THE LLCC TO LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE REMAINS MEDIUM.
113.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 111.6E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN
ORGANIZATION WHILE MEANDERING OVER THE SPRATLEY ISLANDS. THE LLCC
HAS CONSOLIDATED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND WELL FORMED
CLOUD BANDS ARE SPIRALING IN; HOWEVER, IT REMAINS NEARLY 100 NM
SOUTH OF THE LIMITED CONVECTION TAKING PLACE ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. THIS CONVECTION IS A RESULT OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG NORTHEASTERLY MONSOON FLOW. THIS FLOW HAS INDUCED
FAVORABLE SPIN ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF SYSTEM WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
PREVENTING THE LLCC FROM BECOMING COUPLED WITH THE CONVECTION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ALMOST DIRECTLY
UNDERNEATH A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). AS THE ANTICYCLONE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRONG MONSOONAL NORTHEASTERLIES MOVES AWAY, THE
SHEAR MAY RELAX ENOUGH FOR THE LLCC TO FINALLY COUPLE WITH THE
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, TIME IS RUNNING SHORT FOR THIS TO HAPPEN AS THE
CURRENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE AREA OF THE LLCC APPEARS TO
BE A MINIMALLY FAVORABLE 26-27 DEGREES AND DECREASING TOWARDS THE
VIETNAMESE COAST. ADDITIONALLY, IF THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTH IT
WILL ENCOUNTER AN AREA OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF VWS WHICH WOULD ALSO
PREVENT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
LLCC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD AND FILL. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE LLCC, THE EXPECTED DECREASE IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW
STRENGTH, AND THE CURRENT PROXIMITY OF THE LLCC TO LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE REMAINS MEDIUM.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 33 guests