SIO: 12R - Tropical Disturbance (15S)

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Latest infrared

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WTIO30 FMEE 010029 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/12/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12
2.A POSITION 2012/03/01 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 67.0 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 60 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/01 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 65.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2012/03/02 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 64.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/03/02 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 63.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/03/03 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 64.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/03/03 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 65.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/03/04 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/05 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 64.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2012/03/06 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 57.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0+ CI=2.5-. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL AN IRREGULAR CDO. SOME SIGNIFICANT
FLUCTUTATIONS IN SIZE AND SHAPE OF THIS CDO APPEAR ASSOCIATED TO THE
OCCURENCE OF CONVECTIVE BURST, AND SEEMS ALWAYS UNDERGOING A
EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT . THE SYSTEM REMAINS A SMALL SIZE
INNER-CORE SYSTEM. ASCAT DATA OF 1725Z CONFIRM THE WEAK INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM.
LOW LEVEL INFLOW IMPROVES ON THE BOTH SIDES. THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE REMAINS IMPRESSIVE BUT ALWAYS QUITE LIMITATED OVER THE
EASTERN SIDE.
THE SYSTEM TRACKS NOW SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARDS AND IS GETTING CLOSER OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ALTHOUGHT SOME EASTERLY SHEAR COULD REMAIN
TOMORROW, IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GAIN A LITTLE BIT OF
STRENGTH. FRIDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE AT ITS BEST UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ... PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER LOW GIVEN
THAT FEW OR NONE OF THE GUIDANCE STRENGHEN SIGNIFICANTLY THE SYSTEM
UNTIL FRIDAY ... HOWEVER GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE INNER CORE, ONE
COULD NOTE THAT SOME STRONGER VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY THAN PRESENTLY
INDICATED COULD BE OBSERVED.
FROM SATURDAY TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A NEW NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE DEEPEN THE SYSTEM BY THAT TIME. FURTHER ANALYSIS SHOW
THAT THIS INTENSIFICATION MAY COME FROM BAROCLINIC PROCESS ...
CONSEQUENTLY, EN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION MAY BEGIN SUNDAY.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD ROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS LOCATED TO ITS EAST AND
SHOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A NEW UPPER TO MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE
TRACK COULD TAKE BY THAT TIME A SOUTHEEASTWARDS MOTION BETWEEN THE
TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS SOUTHWEST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHEAST . AFTER THAT, THE PREDILECTED SCENARIO IS WESTWARDS TURN ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECAST
SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AROUND THIS "S" TRACK.
INHABITANTS OF RODRIGUES ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM, AS A MORE SERIOUS THREAT COULD NOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ...

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Latest infrared

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WTIO30 FMEE 010705 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/12/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12
2.A POSITION 2012/03/01 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 64.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 70 SW: 110 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/01 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 62.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2012/03/02 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 62.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2012/03/02 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 62.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/03/03 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 63.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/03/03 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 64.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/03/04 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 65.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/05 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, LOW
120H: 2012/03/06 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 56.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 CI=2.5-.
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, THE CLOUD PATTERN IS SLIGHTLY DEGRADED.ASCAT PASS FROM 0433Z CONFIRMS CURRENT POSITION (RELOCALISATION OF 00Z
FIX MORE TO THE WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED) AND THE EXISTENCE OF
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ONLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARDS AND REMAINS JUST TO THENORTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR.
FRIDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE AT ITS BEST UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND SOME SLIGHT STRENGHENING IS EXPECTED... HOWEVER GIVEN
THE SMALL SIZE OF THE INNER CORE, ONE COULD NOTE THAT SOME STRONGER
VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY THAN PRESENTLY INDICATED COULD BE OBSERVED.
FROM SATURDAY TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A NEW NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE DEEPEN THE SYSTEM BY THAT TIME. FURTHER ANALYSIS SHOW
THAT THIS INTENSIFICATION MAY COME FROM BAROCLINIC PROCESS ...
CONSEQUENTLY, EN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION MAY BEGIN SUNDAY. BUT
MONDAY NWP FIELDS DO NOT SHOW AN EXTRATROPICAL STRUCTURE
ANYMORE.WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
PROGRESSIVELY FILLED UP.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD ROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS LOCATED TO ITS EAST AND
SHOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A NEW UPPER TO MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE
TRACK COULD TAKE BY THAT TIME A SOUTHEEASTWARDS MOTION BETWEEN THE
TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS SOUTHWEST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHEAST . AFTER THAT, THE PREDILECTED SCENARIO IS WESTWARDS TURN ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECAST
SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AROUND THIS "S" TRACK. IT IS WORTHNOTING
THAT THERE IS A 5 DEGREES LONGITUDE DISPERSION AROUND THE SOUTHWARDS
TURN EXPECTED TOMORROW ...
INHABITANTS OF RODRIGUES ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

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WTIO30 FMEE 011341
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/12/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12
2.A POSITION 2012/03/01 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8 S / 64.0 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 70 SW: 110 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/02 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 62.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2012/03/02 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 62.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2012/03/03 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 62.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/03/03 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 64.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/03/04 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 65.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2012/03/04 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 65.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/05 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 60.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2012/03/06 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 CI=2.5-.
CONVECTION IS VERY FLUCTUATING ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION THAT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCALIZE. POSITION HAS BEEN
EXTRAPOLATED WITH 0909Z AMSU. THE CENTRE SEEMS BE SITUATED IN THENORTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM.
SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARDS AND SHOULD ROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS
LOCATED TO ITS EAST AND SHOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A NEW UPPER TO
MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE TRACK COULD TAKE BY THAT TIME A SOUTH-EASTWARDS
MOTION BETWEEN THE TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS SOUTHWEST AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST.
ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK, IT REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN AN AREA OF EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. FRIDAY,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BETTER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SOME SLIGHT STRENGHENING IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
SMALL SIZE OF THE INNER CORE, ONE COULD NOTE THAT SOME STRONGER
VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY THAN PRESENTLY INDICATED COULD BE OBSERVED.
FROM SATURDAY TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A STRONG NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE DEEPEN THE SYSTEM BY THAT TIME. FURTHER ANALYSIS SHOW
THAT THIS INTENSIFICATION MAY COME FROM BAROCLINIC PROCESS.
CONSEQUENTLY, AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION MAY BEGIN SUNDAY.
FROM SUNDAY EVENING, THE PRIVILEGED SCENARIO IS WESTWARDS TURN ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
INHABITANTS OF RODRIGUES ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM.

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Latest track

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WTIO30 FMEE 020032
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/12/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12
2.A POSITION 2012/03/02 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 63.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/02 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 62.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2012/03/03 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2012/03/03 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 64.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/03/04 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 64.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/03/04 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 63.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
72H: 2012/03/05 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 62.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/06 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 56.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2012/03/07 00 UTC: 24.4 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 CI=2.0
CONVECTION HAS REBUILT ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION
SINCE 01/1500Z. LE LLCC IS STILL VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCALIZE ACCURATLY.
ASCAT DATA AT 01/1704Z DEPICTS A 15/20 KT CLOCKWISE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ,REACHING LOCALLY 25KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
SYSTEM TRACKS RATHER SLOWLY WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD NORTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BELT. MONSOON FEEDING IS WEAK BUT A BETTER
POLEWARD.
SYSTEM IS STILL UNDERGOING A EAST-SOUTH-EASTERLY MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THE TRACK SHOULD RECURVE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST DURING
THROUGH TAU 48 TO TAU 60, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAREQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE IN ITS NORTH-EAST AND OF A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BELT.
ON SUNDAY, WITH THE REBUILDING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE BELT, IT SHOULD
RECURVE AGAIN WESTWARD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON SATURDAY, MONSOON INFLOW SHOULD IMPROVE AND UPPER LEVEL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND SYSTEM SHOULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE.
ON AND AFTER SUNDAY, UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN
SHARPLY AHEAD AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER NWP MODELS DEEPEN
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THE SYSTEM ON AND AFTER SUNDAY. BAROCLINIC
MECHANISMS SHOULD BE RESPONSIBLE OF THIS DEEPENING. CONSEQUENTLY,
SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PHASE ON AND AFTER
SUNDAY.
CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 021238
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/12/20112012
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 12
2.A POSITION 2012/03/02 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 63.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/03 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 63.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, DISTURBANCE
24H: 2012/03/03 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 64.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
36H: 2012/03/04 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 64.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
48H: 2012/03/04 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 65.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
60H: 2012/03/05 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 63.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
72H: 2012/03/05 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 61.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/06 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, LOW
120H: 2012/03/07 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 50.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5 CI=1.5
THE SYSTEM SHOW AN ILL-DEFINED ORGANISATION WITH A LOW LEVEL CENTER
VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCALISE TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING ANDGETTING CLOSER TO THE SOUTH. AHEAD OF THE NORTHWESTERLY JET
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS BETTER AND
ENHANCED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. GIVEN THE CURRENT POOR ORGANISATION AND THE FACT THAT THE
SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AS SOON AS TOMORROW,  SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING (UP TO THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM LEVEL) SEEMS TO BE A
LOW PROBABILITY EVENT.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCES, A DEEPENING OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ASSOCIATED WITH BAROCLINIC PROCESS
(INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, INTRUSION OF DRY AIR BY THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTORS). AN HYBRID OR EXTRATROPICAL STRUCTURE
IS LIKELY BY THAT TIME.
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SHARPLY CURVED WESTWARDS
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A WEAKENINGTREND IS
ANTICIPATED BY THAT TIME WITHIN AN UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (STRONG
NORTHERLY SHEAR, LESS BAROCLINIC FORCING).
RODRIGUES ISLAND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 110 KM TO THE SOUTH WEST
OF AN HEAVY RAINFALL AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISORGANISED CONVECTIVE
MASS OF THIS SYSTEM. THESE PRECIPITATIONS DO NOT GET CLOSER OF THE
ISLAND AT THIS TIME. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, HEAVY RAINS SHOULD PASS TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLAND. HOWEVER A SMALL VARIATION IN
TRACK COULD BRING THIS HEAVY RAINS OVER THE ISLAND ... CONSEQUENTLY
INTEREST IN RODRIGUES ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES.
LAST ADVISORY UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION ABOUT THIS SYTEM. IT IS CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGN OF REINTENSIFICATION.