WTIO30 FMEE 040036
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/11/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/04 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.7 S / 34.3 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 650 SW: 410 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/04 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 34.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/03/05 00 UTC: 29.3 S / 35.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/03/05 12 UTC: 30.1 S / 35.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/03/06 00 UTC: 29.7 S / 37.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/03/06 12 UTC: 28.8 S / 37.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/03/07 00 UTC: 27.6 S / 37.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/08 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 36.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/03/09 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 33.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 CI=3.5-
THE EYE FEATURE SEEN ON 85/91 HZ MW IMAGERY IS NOT CONSOLIDATING. AMSUB METOP IMAGERY SHOW THIS FE
ATURE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER GIVEN BY THE ASCAT WINDS. THE SYSTEM IS STILL O
N ITS WESTWARDS MOTION AND CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN. ALL GUIDANCE ARE NOW IN AGRREMENT TO MAKE IRINA
SHIFT SOUTHWARDS LATER TODAY ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED SOU
TH OF MADAGASCAR. IF IRINA MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT MOTION, IT COULD MAKE LANDFALL NEAR MAPUTO LATER T
ODAY. THIS POSSIBILITY, SUGGESTED BY NONE OF THE GUIDANCE, APPEARS AS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY EVENT
.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE FETCH IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, A 4 METERS TO 6 METERS CYCLONIC SWELL
IS BATTERING THE AFRICAN COASTLINES FROM 24S TO 33S AND SHOULD PERSIST TODAY.
MONDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS A POLAR TROUGH TRANSITI
NG BETWEEN THE TWO SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES AREAS.THE ONE LOCATED TO THE EAST IS MOVING EASTWARD
S AWAY AND A NEW ONE IS REBUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF IRINA.
TUESDAY AND AFTER, IRINA COULD TRACK NORTHWARDS THEN WESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THI
S REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGHS.
ALONG IRINA'S SOUTHWARDS MOTION, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NEUTRAL (IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DIVER
GENCE TO THE SOUTH, MARGINAL SST) AND THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICAN
TLY.
TUESDAY, UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOUD DETERIORATE WITH AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR.
ON AND AFTER WEDNESDAY 07, AS SYSTEM RECURVES NORTHWESTWARDS THEN WESTWARDS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITI
ONS COULD BECOME BACK FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THERE IS A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THIS ASPECT
OF THE FORECAST AND AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO THAT MAY BECOME THE MAIN ONE LATER ON, COULD BE THAT TH
E SYSTEM WILL NOT RECOVERED FROM THE EXPECTED DETERIORATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
AND COULD THEN TRACK NORTHWESTWARDS AS A WEAKENING SYSTEM.
ALL INHABITANTS ALONG AFRICAN COASTLINE BETWEEN 23S AND 30S ARE STILL INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR T
HE PROGRESS OF IRINA.
SIO: IRINA - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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HURAKAN
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- Posts: 46086
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- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 050018
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/11/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/05 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.8 S / 34.7 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :22 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 280 SW: 200 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 170 SW: 130 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/05 12 UTC: 30.2 S / 35.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/03/06 00 UTC: 29.2 S / 36.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/03/06 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 37.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2012/03/07 00 UTC: 27.2 S / 37.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2012/03/07 12 UTC: 26.4 S / 36.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/03/08 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 35.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/09 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 32.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5 AND CI=3.5
IRINA HAS ACCELERATED SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS.
RELATIVE NORTHERLY WINDSHEAR IS THEREFORE WEAKENING ALOFT AND
DESPITE A WEAKENED OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT, SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS
RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM 1200Z TO 1800Z (REFER TO SSMI F15 04/1402Z AND SSMIS
F16 04/1617E). METEOSAT7 AND MSG2 INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE BETWEEN 1630Z AND
1700Z.
CONVECTION ORGANIZES NOW IN CURVED BAND PATTERN AND BETWEEN 1800Z
AND 0000Z, INTENSITY KEEPS ON STABILIZING (REFER TO TRMM 1930Z).
IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE LARGE EXTENSION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS
SOUTHWARD, A 3 METERS TO 5 METERS CYCLONIC SWELL IS ALWAYS BATTERING
THE AFRICAN COASTLINES FROM 26S TO 34S WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY UNDERGO
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH SUBTROPICAL PRESSURES REBUILDING IN
THE SOUTHWEST AND IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO RECURVE LEFT-HAND.
DESPITE ITS EXPECTED NORTH-EASTWARDS MOTION, IT KEEPS ON SHIFTING OVER
MARGINAL OCEANIC CONTENT AND TREND IS THEREFORE TO A REGULAR
WEAKENING INTENSITY.
FROM WEDNESDAY 07, ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVE (RISING
SST AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAK WINDSHEAR) AND SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS LEFT-HAND LOOP MOTION TO FINALLY ADOPT A
GLOBALLY WESTWARDS MOTION, THEREFORE INTENSIFYING.
THIS TRACK WILL BRING IRINA BACK CLOSER TO THE AFRICAN COASTLINE.
A LANDFALL ON THURSDAY 08 OR FRIDAY 09 REMAINS HOWEVER HYPOTHETICAL
AS A NEW WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL BELT SHOULD STEER IRINA
SOUTHWARDS AGAIN (REFER TO ECMWF 0000Z AND 1200Z RUNS).
ALL INHABITANTS ALONG AFRICAN COASTLINE BETWEEN 23S AND 30S ARE STILL
INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRINA.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/11/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/05 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.8 S / 34.7 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :22 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 280 SW: 200 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 170 SW: 130 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/05 12 UTC: 30.2 S / 35.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/03/06 00 UTC: 29.2 S / 36.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/03/06 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 37.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2012/03/07 00 UTC: 27.2 S / 37.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2012/03/07 12 UTC: 26.4 S / 36.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/03/08 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 35.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/09 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 32.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5 AND CI=3.5
IRINA HAS ACCELERATED SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS.
RELATIVE NORTHERLY WINDSHEAR IS THEREFORE WEAKENING ALOFT AND
DESPITE A WEAKENED OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT, SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS
RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM 1200Z TO 1800Z (REFER TO SSMI F15 04/1402Z AND SSMIS
F16 04/1617E). METEOSAT7 AND MSG2 INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE BETWEEN 1630Z AND
1700Z.
CONVECTION ORGANIZES NOW IN CURVED BAND PATTERN AND BETWEEN 1800Z
AND 0000Z, INTENSITY KEEPS ON STABILIZING (REFER TO TRMM 1930Z).
IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE LARGE EXTENSION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS
SOUTHWARD, A 3 METERS TO 5 METERS CYCLONIC SWELL IS ALWAYS BATTERING
THE AFRICAN COASTLINES FROM 26S TO 34S WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY UNDERGO
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH SUBTROPICAL PRESSURES REBUILDING IN
THE SOUTHWEST AND IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO RECURVE LEFT-HAND.
DESPITE ITS EXPECTED NORTH-EASTWARDS MOTION, IT KEEPS ON SHIFTING OVER
MARGINAL OCEANIC CONTENT AND TREND IS THEREFORE TO A REGULAR
WEAKENING INTENSITY.
FROM WEDNESDAY 07, ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVE (RISING
SST AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAK WINDSHEAR) AND SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS LEFT-HAND LOOP MOTION TO FINALLY ADOPT A
GLOBALLY WESTWARDS MOTION, THEREFORE INTENSIFYING.
THIS TRACK WILL BRING IRINA BACK CLOSER TO THE AFRICAN COASTLINE.
A LANDFALL ON THURSDAY 08 OR FRIDAY 09 REMAINS HOWEVER HYPOTHETICAL
AS A NEW WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL BELT SHOULD STEER IRINA
SOUTHWARDS AGAIN (REFER TO ECMWF 0000Z AND 1200Z RUNS).
ALL INHABITANTS ALONG AFRICAN COASTLINE BETWEEN 23S AND 30S ARE STILL
INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRINA.
0 likes
Weakening expected in the next day or two.
WTIO30 FMEE 051235
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/11/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.5 S / 35.6 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL
SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 330 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 90 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/06 00 UTC: 30.4 S / 36.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/03/06 12 UTC: 29.7 S / 37.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2012/03/07 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2012/03/07 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 37.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2012/03/08 00 UTC: 28.2 S / 36.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/03/08 12 UTC: 28.7 S / 35.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/09 12 UTC: 30.1 S / 34.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/03/10 12 UTC: 31.0 S / 34.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0-
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED NORTH-WEST FROM
THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION.
SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING AGAINST THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND COOL SST (ABOUT 25AOC ACCORDING TO ECMWF ANALYSIS).
SINCE THE LAST 12 HOURS, THE TRACK HAS TURNED SOUTH-EASTWARD IN
RELATION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE CELL GROWING IN THE
SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS, SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE A COMPLETE LOOP IN THE
ANTI-CLOCKWISE WAY AND TRACK AGAIN EASTWARD AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST RANGE. INDEED IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES, AND REMAIN OUT OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDES
TROUGH TRANSITING IN ITS SOUTH AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP
MODELS.
ON THIS TRACK, ON AND AFTER THURSDAY, SYSTEM SHOULD ENCOUNTER MORE
FAVOURABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (WEAKENING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR).
HOWEVER SST SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL, THROUGHOUT THE FORECASTING
PERIOD.
THE FORECAST TREND IS A WEAKENING OF THE INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 48
TO 60 HOURS, AND THEN A POSSIBLE REGENERATION ON AND AFTER THURSDAY.=
WTIO30 FMEE 051235
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/11/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.5 S / 35.6 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL
SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 330 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 90 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/06 00 UTC: 30.4 S / 36.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/03/06 12 UTC: 29.7 S / 37.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2012/03/07 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2012/03/07 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 37.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2012/03/08 00 UTC: 28.2 S / 36.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/03/08 12 UTC: 28.7 S / 35.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/09 12 UTC: 30.1 S / 34.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/03/10 12 UTC: 31.0 S / 34.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0-
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED NORTH-WEST FROM
THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION.
SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING AGAINST THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND COOL SST (ABOUT 25AOC ACCORDING TO ECMWF ANALYSIS).
SINCE THE LAST 12 HOURS, THE TRACK HAS TURNED SOUTH-EASTWARD IN
RELATION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE CELL GROWING IN THE
SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS, SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE A COMPLETE LOOP IN THE
ANTI-CLOCKWISE WAY AND TRACK AGAIN EASTWARD AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST RANGE. INDEED IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES, AND REMAIN OUT OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDES
TROUGH TRANSITING IN ITS SOUTH AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP
MODELS.
ON THIS TRACK, ON AND AFTER THURSDAY, SYSTEM SHOULD ENCOUNTER MORE
FAVOURABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (WEAKENING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR).
HOWEVER SST SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL, THROUGHOUT THE FORECASTING
PERIOD.
THE FORECAST TREND IS A WEAKENING OF THE INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 48
TO 60 HOURS, AND THEN A POSSIBLE REGENERATION ON AND AFTER THURSDAY.=
0 likes
Avatar: Tropical Storm Omeka (2010) as a "tropical depression", as analysed the JMA and JTWC. You be the judge!
WTIO30 FMEE 060639
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/11/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.7 S / 38.5 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 460 NW: 520
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 300 NW: 300
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/06 18 UTC: 29.6 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/03/07 06 UTC: 28.6 S / 40.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/03/07 18 UTC: 28.1 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/03/08 06 UTC: 27.9 S / 39.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/03/08 18 UTC: 27.8 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/03/09 06 UTC: 28.0 S / 36.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/10 06 UTC: 29.7 S / 35.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/03/11 06 UTC: 28.9 S / 37.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5 CI=3.0-
LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LOW LEVEL CENTRE EXPOSED WEST OF MAIN CONVECTION. IRINA IS UNDERGOIN
G A WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR AND EVOLVES ON RATHER COOL SST (ABOUT 25.5 TO 26AoC). CIMSS DATA
CONFIRM A WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR AT ABOUT 18 KT. WIND FIELD IS VERY ASYMMETRIC DUE TO THE ST
RONG GRADIENT IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGHS SITUATED IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE
SYSTEM (ASCAT AT 05/1859Z).
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CELL SITUATED IN THE SOUTH-WEST IS
GOING TO STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTH-EAST. BEYOND, EASTWARD HIGH PRESSURES MIGHT DICTATE A
WESTWARD TRACK UP TO FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. AT THIS TAU, A TROUGH PASSING IN THE SOUTH AND EASTWARD R
IDGE COMING TOWARD THE NORTH, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GO AGAIN EASTWARD.
MOST OF AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FORECAST TRACK UP TO SATURDAY. B
EYOND, SOME OF THEM FORECAST A NORTHWARD TRACK.
FROM TOMORROW, SYSTEM SHOULD ENCOUNTER MORE FAVOURABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (WEAKE
NING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR). HOWEVER SST REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE FORECAST TREND IS GLOBALLY A WEAKENING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THEN A POSSIBLE SLIGHTLY
RE-INTENSIFICATION ON AND AFTER WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AT THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD, SYSTEM MIGHT WEAKEN AGAIN BY ENCOUNTERING STRONG NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND-SHEAR.
One of the longer-lasting storms in a while.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/11/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.7 S / 38.5 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 460 NW: 520
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 300 NW: 300
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/06 18 UTC: 29.6 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/03/07 06 UTC: 28.6 S / 40.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/03/07 18 UTC: 28.1 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/03/08 06 UTC: 27.9 S / 39.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/03/08 18 UTC: 27.8 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/03/09 06 UTC: 28.0 S / 36.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/10 06 UTC: 29.7 S / 35.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/03/11 06 UTC: 28.9 S / 37.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5 CI=3.0-
LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LOW LEVEL CENTRE EXPOSED WEST OF MAIN CONVECTION. IRINA IS UNDERGOIN
G A WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR AND EVOLVES ON RATHER COOL SST (ABOUT 25.5 TO 26AoC). CIMSS DATA
CONFIRM A WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR AT ABOUT 18 KT. WIND FIELD IS VERY ASYMMETRIC DUE TO THE ST
RONG GRADIENT IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGHS SITUATED IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE
SYSTEM (ASCAT AT 05/1859Z).
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CELL SITUATED IN THE SOUTH-WEST IS
GOING TO STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTH-EAST. BEYOND, EASTWARD HIGH PRESSURES MIGHT DICTATE A
WESTWARD TRACK UP TO FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. AT THIS TAU, A TROUGH PASSING IN THE SOUTH AND EASTWARD R
IDGE COMING TOWARD THE NORTH, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GO AGAIN EASTWARD.
MOST OF AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FORECAST TRACK UP TO SATURDAY. B
EYOND, SOME OF THEM FORECAST A NORTHWARD TRACK.
FROM TOMORROW, SYSTEM SHOULD ENCOUNTER MORE FAVOURABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (WEAKE
NING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR). HOWEVER SST REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE FORECAST TREND IS GLOBALLY A WEAKENING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THEN A POSSIBLE SLIGHTLY
RE-INTENSIFICATION ON AND AFTER WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AT THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD, SYSTEM MIGHT WEAKEN AGAIN BY ENCOUNTERING STRONG NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND-SHEAR.
One of the longer-lasting storms in a while.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 061231
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/11/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.3 S / 39.3 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-NORTH-EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 460 NW: 520
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 300 NW: 300
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/07 00 UTC: 29.5 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/03/07 12 UTC: 28.7 S / 40.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/03/08 00 UTC: 27.9 S / 39.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/03/08 12 UTC: 27.9 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/03/09 00 UTC: 28.2 S / 37.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/03/09 12 UTC: 28.5 S / 36.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/10 12 UTC: 28.5 S / 34.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2012/03/11 12 UTC: 25.5 S / 34.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS TOTALLY EXPOSED WITH A VERY WELL VORTEX.CONVECTION IS WEAK AND VERY FLUCTUATING IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
SYSTEM. 0615Z ASCAT SWATH SHOWS WINDS EXCEEDING 45 KT IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. DVORAK ANALYSIS IS NOT PERTINENT FOR THIS SYSTEM, BUT NO
ELEMENT INDICATES SUBTROPICAL OR EXTRA-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
(PHASIS DIAGRAMS AND CIMSS AMSU-A CROSS SECTIONS). SO, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM CLASSIFICATION IS MAINTAINED.
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CELL
SITUATED IN THE WEST IS GOING TO STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. BEYOND, REBUILDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD HIGH PRESSURES MIGHT
DICTATE A WESTWARD TRACK UP TO FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER PROBLEMATIC DURING THE SAME TIME.
TOMORROW, UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MIGHT IMPROVE
(WEAKENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR), BUT SST REMAIN MARGINAL (25 TO 26
DEGREES CELSIUS). AFTER A TEMPORARY WEAKENING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW,
SYSTEM SHOULD SLIGHTLY RE-INTENSIFY UP TO FRIDAY.
FROM SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURES SITUATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA MIGHT STEER
THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD. IT IS EXPECTED THAT SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AGAIN
WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WIND-SHEAR.
NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FORECAST TRACK (NOW
INCLUDING ECMWF FOR THE TRACK AT THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD).
HOWEVER, ECMWF IS THE ONLY ONE THAT DEEPENS THE SYSTEM DURING ITS
NORTHWARD TRACK. NOW, IS NOT THE OPTION CHOSEN BY RSMC.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/11/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.3 S / 39.3 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-NORTH-EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 460 NW: 520
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 300 NW: 300
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/07 00 UTC: 29.5 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/03/07 12 UTC: 28.7 S / 40.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/03/08 00 UTC: 27.9 S / 39.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/03/08 12 UTC: 27.9 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/03/09 00 UTC: 28.2 S / 37.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/03/09 12 UTC: 28.5 S / 36.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/10 12 UTC: 28.5 S / 34.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2012/03/11 12 UTC: 25.5 S / 34.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS TOTALLY EXPOSED WITH A VERY WELL VORTEX.CONVECTION IS WEAK AND VERY FLUCTUATING IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
SYSTEM. 0615Z ASCAT SWATH SHOWS WINDS EXCEEDING 45 KT IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. DVORAK ANALYSIS IS NOT PERTINENT FOR THIS SYSTEM, BUT NO
ELEMENT INDICATES SUBTROPICAL OR EXTRA-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
(PHASIS DIAGRAMS AND CIMSS AMSU-A CROSS SECTIONS). SO, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM CLASSIFICATION IS MAINTAINED.
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CELL
SITUATED IN THE WEST IS GOING TO STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. BEYOND, REBUILDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD HIGH PRESSURES MIGHT
DICTATE A WESTWARD TRACK UP TO FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER PROBLEMATIC DURING THE SAME TIME.
TOMORROW, UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MIGHT IMPROVE
(WEAKENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR), BUT SST REMAIN MARGINAL (25 TO 26
DEGREES CELSIUS). AFTER A TEMPORARY WEAKENING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW,
SYSTEM SHOULD SLIGHTLY RE-INTENSIFY UP TO FRIDAY.
FROM SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURES SITUATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA MIGHT STEER
THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD. IT IS EXPECTED THAT SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AGAIN
WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WIND-SHEAR.
NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FORECAST TRACK (NOW
INCLUDING ECMWF FOR THE TRACK AT THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD).
HOWEVER, ECMWF IS THE ONLY ONE THAT DEEPENS THE SYSTEM DURING ITS
NORTHWARD TRACK. NOW, IS NOT THE OPTION CHOSEN BY RSMC.
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-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 061857
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/11/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.7 S / 40.3 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH-NORTH-EAST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 110 SW: 370 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 70 SW: 280 NW: 200
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/07 06 UTC: 28.9 S / 40.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/03/07 18 UTC: 28.5 S / 39.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/03/08 06 UTC: 28.2 S / 38.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/03/08 18 UTC: 28.2 S / 37.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/03/09 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 36.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/03/09 18 UTC: 28.7 S / 35.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/10 18 UTC: 27.3 S / 35.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2012/03/11 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 34.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
CONVECTION HAS TEMPORARILY REORGANIZED ABOVE THE LLCC DURING THEPAST 6 HOURS (CF. SSMIS AT 15.51Z), BUT REMAINS FLUCTUATING.
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CELL
SITUATED IN THE WEST IS GOING TO STEER THE SYSTEM GLOBALLY NORTHWARD.
BEYOND, REBUILDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD HIGH PRESSURES MIGHT DICTATE A
WESTWARD TRACK UP TO FRIDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY AND AFTER, HIGH PRESSURES SITUATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA
MIGHT STEER THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD.
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SEEM TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR
TONIGHT (WEAKENING OF RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR), BUT A THE UPPER
LEVEL CONSTRAINT SHOULD RELEASE MORE CLEARLY BY TAU 18 TO 24. HOWEVER
SST REMAIN MARGINAL (25 TO 26 DEGREES CELSIUS). CONSEQUENTLY, WITHIN
THESE NEUTRAL ACTUAL CONDITIONS, BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE FAVOURABLE
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, SYSTEM INTENSITY SHOULD LITTLE FLUCTUATE
AROUND THE ACTUAL INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, UP TO FRIDAY.
ON AND AFTER, SATURDAY SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLY WIND-SHEAR.
NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FORECAST TRACK (NOW
INCLUDING ECMWF FOR THE TRACK AT THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD).
HOWEVER, ECMWF IS THE ONLY ONE THAT DEEPENS THE SYSTEM DURING ITS
NORTHWARD TRACK. NOW, IS NOT THE OPTION CHOSEN BY RSMC.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/11/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.7 S / 40.3 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH-NORTH-EAST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 110 SW: 370 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 70 SW: 280 NW: 200
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/07 06 UTC: 28.9 S / 40.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/03/07 18 UTC: 28.5 S / 39.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/03/08 06 UTC: 28.2 S / 38.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/03/08 18 UTC: 28.2 S / 37.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/03/09 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 36.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/03/09 18 UTC: 28.7 S / 35.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/10 18 UTC: 27.3 S / 35.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2012/03/11 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 34.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
CONVECTION HAS TEMPORARILY REORGANIZED ABOVE THE LLCC DURING THEPAST 6 HOURS (CF. SSMIS AT 15.51Z), BUT REMAINS FLUCTUATING.
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CELL
SITUATED IN THE WEST IS GOING TO STEER THE SYSTEM GLOBALLY NORTHWARD.
BEYOND, REBUILDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD HIGH PRESSURES MIGHT DICTATE A
WESTWARD TRACK UP TO FRIDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY AND AFTER, HIGH PRESSURES SITUATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA
MIGHT STEER THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD.
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SEEM TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR
TONIGHT (WEAKENING OF RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR), BUT A THE UPPER
LEVEL CONSTRAINT SHOULD RELEASE MORE CLEARLY BY TAU 18 TO 24. HOWEVER
SST REMAIN MARGINAL (25 TO 26 DEGREES CELSIUS). CONSEQUENTLY, WITHIN
THESE NEUTRAL ACTUAL CONDITIONS, BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE FAVOURABLE
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, SYSTEM INTENSITY SHOULD LITTLE FLUCTUATE
AROUND THE ACTUAL INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, UP TO FRIDAY.
ON AND AFTER, SATURDAY SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLY WIND-SHEAR.
NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FORECAST TRACK (NOW
INCLUDING ECMWF FOR THE TRACK AT THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD).
HOWEVER, ECMWF IS THE ONLY ONE THAT DEEPENS THE SYSTEM DURING ITS
NORTHWARD TRACK. NOW, IS NOT THE OPTION CHOSEN BY RSMC.
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38 warnings and still going strong.
WTIO30 FMEE 070804 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 38/11/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.5 S / 41.0 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 280 NW: 300
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 180 NW: 150
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/07 18 UTC: 29.1 S / 40.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/03/08 06 UTC: 28.9 S / 39.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/03/08 18 UTC: 28.9 S / 38.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/03/09 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 37.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/03/09 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 35.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/03/10 06 UTC: 29.4 S / 34.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/11 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 33.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
CORRECTIVE FOR INITIAL INTENSITY, POSITION AND WINDS RADII ACCORDING TO 0558Z ASCAT DATA RECEIVED
JUST AFTER 07Z.
IRINA STILL SHOW SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH A WELL DEFINED WARM CORE SEEN ON AMSU PROFILS
SUSTAINED BY INTERMITTENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE CENTER. ON FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY,
IRINA SHOW A PRETTY WELL DEFINED PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL VORTEX ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF MAIN
CONVECTION. CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON ASCAT DATA OF LAST NIGHT.
THE SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CELL SHOULD STRENGHEN SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW. SO IRI
NA IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WESTWARD TRACK BY THAT TIME. ON AND AFTER SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURES SIT
UATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA MIGHT STEER THE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD SST REMAIN MARGINAL (25 TO 26 DEGREES CELSIUS).UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONM
ENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ACTUALLY RATHER UNFAVOURABLE WITH A 15 KT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, BUT IT SHOULD
RELEASE MORE CLEARLY TOMORROW, AS SYSTEM WOULD LIE TEMPORARILY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. C
ONSEQUENTLY, AN INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY THE WEAK OCEANIC HEAT CONTE
NT. THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND-SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY AND WEAKEN THE S
YSTEM BEFORE ITS LANDFALL THAT IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY BETWEEN MAPUTO AND INHAMBANE.
WTIO30 FMEE 070804 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 38/11/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.5 S / 41.0 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 280 NW: 300
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 180 NW: 150
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/07 18 UTC: 29.1 S / 40.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/03/08 06 UTC: 28.9 S / 39.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/03/08 18 UTC: 28.9 S / 38.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/03/09 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 37.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/03/09 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 35.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/03/10 06 UTC: 29.4 S / 34.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/11 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 33.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
CORRECTIVE FOR INITIAL INTENSITY, POSITION AND WINDS RADII ACCORDING TO 0558Z ASCAT DATA RECEIVED
JUST AFTER 07Z.
IRINA STILL SHOW SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH A WELL DEFINED WARM CORE SEEN ON AMSU PROFILS
SUSTAINED BY INTERMITTENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE CENTER. ON FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY,
IRINA SHOW A PRETTY WELL DEFINED PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL VORTEX ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF MAIN
CONVECTION. CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON ASCAT DATA OF LAST NIGHT.
THE SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CELL SHOULD STRENGHEN SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW. SO IRI
NA IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WESTWARD TRACK BY THAT TIME. ON AND AFTER SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURES SIT
UATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA MIGHT STEER THE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD SST REMAIN MARGINAL (25 TO 26 DEGREES CELSIUS).UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONM
ENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ACTUALLY RATHER UNFAVOURABLE WITH A 15 KT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, BUT IT SHOULD
RELEASE MORE CLEARLY TOMORROW, AS SYSTEM WOULD LIE TEMPORARILY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. C
ONSEQUENTLY, AN INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY THE WEAK OCEANIC HEAT CONTE
NT. THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND-SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY AND WEAKEN THE S
YSTEM BEFORE ITS LANDFALL THAT IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY BETWEEN MAPUTO AND INHAMBANE.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 071228
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 39/11/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.3 S / 40.7 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 240 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/08 00 UTC: 29.2 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/03/08 12 UTC: 29.1 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/03/09 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/03/09 12 UTC: 29.3 S / 36.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/03/10 00 UTC: 29.4 S / 35.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/03/10 12 UTC: 28.9 S / 35.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/11 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 33.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF IRINA IS IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON WITH 0.6 CURVED
BAND ON N19 VIS IMAGERY OF 1129Z. A WARM SPOT IS SEEN ON LATEST VIS
GEOSTATIONNARY IMAGERY. DVORAK ESTIMATION STILL SEEMS TO
UNDERESTIMATE THE REAL INTENSITY (PGTW AND KNES GIVE A CI AT 2.5 AT 1130Z
ASSOCIATED WITH 30-35 KT MAX 10 MIN WINDS) AND IS NOT USED FOR THEINTENSITY ASSESSMENT. IT IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF ASCAT DATA OF THIS
MORNING
IRINA HAS BEGUN ITS WESTWARDS TURN THAT SHOULD OCCUR AT A RATHER LOW
MOTION UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGE. BEYOND THAT TIME, HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED OVER SOUTH
AFRICA MIGHT WILL STEER THE SYSTEM NORTHNORTHWESTWARDS.
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD SST REMAIN MARGINAL (25 TO 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS).CURRENTLY, THE WINDSHEAR IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT .IT SHOULD
RELEASE FROM TOMORROW TO AROUND FRIDAY MIDDAY, AS SYSTEM WOULD LIE
TEMPORARILY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY,
ADDITIONAL STRENGHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS TIME-FRAME BUT
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY THE WEAK OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. THE UPPER
LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND-SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM BEFORE ITS LANDFALL THAT IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY BETWEEN
MAPUTO AND INHAMBANE.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FINAL INTENSITY OF IRINA AS IT
WILL APPROACH THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS ON SUNDAY. THE SHEAR COULD
LESSEN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING AND BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME STRENGHENING JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.
CONSEQUENTLY, INHABITANTS OF THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL AREA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRINA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 39/11/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.3 S / 40.7 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 240 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/08 00 UTC: 29.2 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/03/08 12 UTC: 29.1 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/03/09 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/03/09 12 UTC: 29.3 S / 36.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/03/10 00 UTC: 29.4 S / 35.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/03/10 12 UTC: 28.9 S / 35.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/11 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 33.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF IRINA IS IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON WITH 0.6 CURVED
BAND ON N19 VIS IMAGERY OF 1129Z. A WARM SPOT IS SEEN ON LATEST VIS
GEOSTATIONNARY IMAGERY. DVORAK ESTIMATION STILL SEEMS TO
UNDERESTIMATE THE REAL INTENSITY (PGTW AND KNES GIVE A CI AT 2.5 AT 1130Z
ASSOCIATED WITH 30-35 KT MAX 10 MIN WINDS) AND IS NOT USED FOR THEINTENSITY ASSESSMENT. IT IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF ASCAT DATA OF THIS
MORNING
IRINA HAS BEGUN ITS WESTWARDS TURN THAT SHOULD OCCUR AT A RATHER LOW
MOTION UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGE. BEYOND THAT TIME, HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED OVER SOUTH
AFRICA MIGHT WILL STEER THE SYSTEM NORTHNORTHWESTWARDS.
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD SST REMAIN MARGINAL (25 TO 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS).CURRENTLY, THE WINDSHEAR IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT .IT SHOULD
RELEASE FROM TOMORROW TO AROUND FRIDAY MIDDAY, AS SYSTEM WOULD LIE
TEMPORARILY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY,
ADDITIONAL STRENGHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS TIME-FRAME BUT
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY THE WEAK OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. THE UPPER
LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND-SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM BEFORE ITS LANDFALL THAT IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY BETWEEN
MAPUTO AND INHAMBANE.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FINAL INTENSITY OF IRINA AS IT
WILL APPROACH THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS ON SUNDAY. THE SHEAR COULD
LESSEN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING AND BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME STRENGHENING JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.
CONSEQUENTLY, INHABITANTS OF THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL AREA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRINA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTXS31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 016//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 29.4S 40.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.4S 40.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 29.3S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.3S 39.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 29.3S 37.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 29.4S 40.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE LLCC. A 071124Z AMSU
IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH WEAK DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
LIMITED TO THE SOUTH QUADRANT AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR SURROUNDING
THE LLCC. A 070554Z ASCAT IMAGE HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW A STRONG LLCC
WITH NUMEROUS 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION DUE TO THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON THE RECENT ASCAT DATA AND IS HELD HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW, WHICH APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW
DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION. TC 14S IS SLOWLY WEAKENING
WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY COOL SST NEAR 25C AND
MODERATE, WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 14S IS TRACKING WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL (850MB) SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN TAU 24 AND
TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S
(SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 071836
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 40/11/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.5 S / 40.4 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 220 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/08 06 UTC: 29.4 S / 39.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/03/08 18 UTC: 29.2 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/03/09 06 UTC: 29.2 S / 37.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/03/09 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 36.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/03/10 06 UTC: 29.2 S / 35.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/03/10 18 UTC: 28.1 S / 34.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/11 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 32.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF IRINA HAS LITTLE EVOLVED FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS. LAST
CC SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A 0.7/0.8 CURVED BAND, BUT 1538Z SSMIS F16 MW
INDICATES THAT THIS BAND IS NOT CONTINUOUS. SINCE YESTERDAY, DVORAK
ANALYSIS IS LITTLE PERTINENT ON THIS SYSTEM AND CURRENT INTENSITY ISMAINTAINED AT 50 KT (ASCAT DATA OF THIS MORNING). SYSTEM STILL SEEMS TO
UNDERGO A LITTLE CONSTRAINT CONFIRMED BY CIMSS DATA (SOUTH-WESTERLY
WIND-SHEAR AT 8/9 KT).
IRINA IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD AND MIGHT KEEP ON THIS TRACK (BY
A LITTLE ACCELERATING) UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE. BEYOND THAT TIME, HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED OVER
SOUTH AFRICA MIGHT WILL STEER THE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, SST REMAIN MARGINAL (25 TO 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS). WIND-SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN TOMORROW, AS SYSTEM WOULD LIE
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, AND MIGHT REMAIN VERY WEAK UNTIL
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY, CURRENT INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN, MAYBE EVEN SLIGHTLY INCREASE, BUT MIGHT REMAIN LIMITED BY
THE WEAK OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND-SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE
ITS LANDFALL THAT IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY BETWEEN MAPUTO AND
INHAMBANE.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FINAL INTENSITY OF IRINA AS IT
WILL APPROACH THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS ON SUNDAY. THE SHEAR COULD
LESSEN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING AND BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.
CONSEQUENTLY, INHABITANTS OF THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL AREA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF IRINA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 40/11/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.5 S / 40.4 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 220 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/08 06 UTC: 29.4 S / 39.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/03/08 18 UTC: 29.2 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/03/09 06 UTC: 29.2 S / 37.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/03/09 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 36.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/03/10 06 UTC: 29.2 S / 35.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/03/10 18 UTC: 28.1 S / 34.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/11 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 32.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF IRINA HAS LITTLE EVOLVED FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS. LAST
CC SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A 0.7/0.8 CURVED BAND, BUT 1538Z SSMIS F16 MW
INDICATES THAT THIS BAND IS NOT CONTINUOUS. SINCE YESTERDAY, DVORAK
ANALYSIS IS LITTLE PERTINENT ON THIS SYSTEM AND CURRENT INTENSITY ISMAINTAINED AT 50 KT (ASCAT DATA OF THIS MORNING). SYSTEM STILL SEEMS TO
UNDERGO A LITTLE CONSTRAINT CONFIRMED BY CIMSS DATA (SOUTH-WESTERLY
WIND-SHEAR AT 8/9 KT).
IRINA IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD AND MIGHT KEEP ON THIS TRACK (BY
A LITTLE ACCELERATING) UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE. BEYOND THAT TIME, HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED OVER
SOUTH AFRICA MIGHT WILL STEER THE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, SST REMAIN MARGINAL (25 TO 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS). WIND-SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN TOMORROW, AS SYSTEM WOULD LIE
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, AND MIGHT REMAIN VERY WEAK UNTIL
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY, CURRENT INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN, MAYBE EVEN SLIGHTLY INCREASE, BUT MIGHT REMAIN LIMITED BY
THE WEAK OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND-SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE
ITS LANDFALL THAT IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY BETWEEN MAPUTO AND
INHAMBANE.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FINAL INTENSITY OF IRINA AS IT
WILL APPROACH THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS ON SUNDAY. THE SHEAR COULD
LESSEN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING AND BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.
CONSEQUENTLY, INHABITANTS OF THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL AREA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF IRINA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 081247
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 43/11/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.5 S / 40.0 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :33 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/09 00 UTC: 29.7 S / 39.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/03/09 12 UTC: 29.7 S / 38.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/03/10 00 UTC: 29.6 S / 37.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/03/10 12 UTC: 29.2 S / 36.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/03/11 00 UTC: 27.6 S / 36.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2012/03/11 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 35.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/12 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 35.0 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON SHIFTING
SLOWLY GLOBALLY WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS THEN WESTWARDS UNTIL
SATURDAY MORNING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
(SLOWER TIMING IN REGARD OF PREVIOUS FORECAST). BEYOND, HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA WILL STEER THE
SYSTEM NORTH-NORTH-WESTWARDS.
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, SST REMAIN MARGINAL (25 TO 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS). WIND-SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN, AS SYSTEM WOULD LIE UNDER AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, AND MIGHT REMAIN VERY WEAK UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, VERY SLOW MOTION ON WEAK OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
MIGHT LIMIT SYSTEM INTENSITY AT THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
NORTHERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE ITS LANDFALL THAT IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY
BETWEEN MAPUTO AND INHAMBANE.
INHABITANTS OF THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE EVOLUTION OF IRINA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 43/11/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.5 S / 40.0 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :33 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/09 00 UTC: 29.7 S / 39.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/03/09 12 UTC: 29.7 S / 38.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/03/10 00 UTC: 29.6 S / 37.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/03/10 12 UTC: 29.2 S / 36.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/03/11 00 UTC: 27.6 S / 36.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2012/03/11 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 35.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/12 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 35.0 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON SHIFTING
SLOWLY GLOBALLY WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS THEN WESTWARDS UNTIL
SATURDAY MORNING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
(SLOWER TIMING IN REGARD OF PREVIOUS FORECAST). BEYOND, HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA WILL STEER THE
SYSTEM NORTH-NORTH-WESTWARDS.
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, SST REMAIN MARGINAL (25 TO 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS). WIND-SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN, AS SYSTEM WOULD LIE UNDER AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, AND MIGHT REMAIN VERY WEAK UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, VERY SLOW MOTION ON WEAK OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
MIGHT LIMIT SYSTEM INTENSITY AT THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
NORTHERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE ITS LANDFALL THAT IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY
BETWEEN MAPUTO AND INHAMBANE.
INHABITANTS OF THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE EVOLUTION OF IRINA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
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DanieleItalyRm
- Category 1
- Posts: 486
- Age: 38
- Joined: Mon Sep 22, 2008 7:52 am
- Location: Rome - Italy - Mediterranean sea
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 081908
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 44/11/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.7 S / 39.8 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/09 06 UTC: 29.6 S / 38.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/03/09 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 37.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/03/10 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 36.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2012/03/10 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 36.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2012/03/11 06 UTC: 26.1 S / 35.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
72H: 2012/03/11 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 35.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
IRINA BRIEFLY SHOW A SIMILI EYE FEATURE ON IR IMAGERY THIS EVENING. MW
IMAGERY SHOW A DETERIORATION OF THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN.
SYSTEM STILL DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON
SHIFTING SLOWLY GLOBALLY WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE (SLOWER
TIMING IN REGARD OF PREVIOUS FORECAST). BEYOND, HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA WILL STEER THE
SYSTEM NORTH-NORTH-WESTWARDS.
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, SST REMAIN MARGINAL (25 TO 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS). WIND-SHEAR SHOULD BE RATHER LOW, AS THE SYSTEM WOULD LIE
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
VERY SLOW MOTION ON WEAK OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT DO NOT ALLOW ANY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY.
NORTHERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE ITS LANDFALL THAT IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY OVER
THE INHAMBANE AREA.
IRINA SHOULD BE A FILLING UP LOW BY THAT TIME AND LIKELY NOT BE
CONSIDERED AS A THREAT ANYMORE FOR MOZAMBIQUE.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 44/11/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.7 S / 39.8 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/09 06 UTC: 29.6 S / 38.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/03/09 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 37.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/03/10 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 36.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2012/03/10 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 36.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2012/03/11 06 UTC: 26.1 S / 35.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
72H: 2012/03/11 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 35.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
IRINA BRIEFLY SHOW A SIMILI EYE FEATURE ON IR IMAGERY THIS EVENING. MW
IMAGERY SHOW A DETERIORATION OF THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN.
SYSTEM STILL DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON
SHIFTING SLOWLY GLOBALLY WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE (SLOWER
TIMING IN REGARD OF PREVIOUS FORECAST). BEYOND, HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA WILL STEER THE
SYSTEM NORTH-NORTH-WESTWARDS.
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, SST REMAIN MARGINAL (25 TO 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS). WIND-SHEAR SHOULD BE RATHER LOW, AS THE SYSTEM WOULD LIE
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
VERY SLOW MOTION ON WEAK OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT DO NOT ALLOW ANY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY.
NORTHERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE ITS LANDFALL THAT IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY OVER
THE INHAMBANE AREA.
IRINA SHOULD BE A FILLING UP LOW BY THAT TIME AND LIKELY NOT BE
CONSIDERED AS A THREAT ANYMORE FOR MOZAMBIQUE.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 090049
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 45/11/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.3 S / 38.8 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 160 SW: 190 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 40 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/09 12 UTC: 29.2 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2012/03/10 00 UTC: 28.9 S / 37.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2012/03/10 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 36.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2012/03/11 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 35.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
60H: 2012/03/11 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 35.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
72H: 2012/03/12 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 34.5 E, MAX WIND=010 KT, INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
LATEST ASCAT DATA CONFIRMS CURRENT INTENSITY AT 18Z. SINCE THAT TIME, THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE SYSTEM STILL DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARDS ... OR WESTNORTHWESTWARDS
ACCORDING TO LATEST FIX. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON SHIFTING SLOWLY
GLOBALLY WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE. BEYOND, HIGH PRESSURES
LOCATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA WILL STEER THE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, SST REMAIN MARGINAL (25 TO 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS). THE WIND-SHEAR IS STILL RATHER LOW BUT IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND.
IRINA SHOULD BE A FILLING UP LOW BY THE TIME IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
INHAMBANE. CONSEQUENTLY IRINA SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED ANYMORE AS A
THREAT FOR MOZAMBIQUE.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 45/11/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.3 S / 38.8 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 160 SW: 190 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 40 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/09 12 UTC: 29.2 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2012/03/10 00 UTC: 28.9 S / 37.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2012/03/10 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 36.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2012/03/11 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 35.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
60H: 2012/03/11 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 35.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
72H: 2012/03/12 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 34.5 E, MAX WIND=010 KT, INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
LATEST ASCAT DATA CONFIRMS CURRENT INTENSITY AT 18Z. SINCE THAT TIME, THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE SYSTEM STILL DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARDS ... OR WESTNORTHWESTWARDS
ACCORDING TO LATEST FIX. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON SHIFTING SLOWLY
GLOBALLY WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE. BEYOND, HIGH PRESSURES
LOCATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA WILL STEER THE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, SST REMAIN MARGINAL (25 TO 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS). THE WIND-SHEAR IS STILL RATHER LOW BUT IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND.
IRINA SHOULD BE A FILLING UP LOW BY THE TIME IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
INHAMBANE. CONSEQUENTLY IRINA SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED ANYMORE AS A
THREAT FOR MOZAMBIQUE.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 091205
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 47/11/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 (EX-IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.4 S / 37.6 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 90 SW: 60 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1013 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/10 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 36.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2012/03/10 12 UTC: 28.3 S / 35.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
36H: 2012/03/11 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 35.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2012/03/11 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 34.6 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
60H: 2012/03/12 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 34.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
72H: 2012/03/12 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 35.8 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
CONVECTION REMAINS QUITE WEAK, AND THE CENTRE IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED
NORTHWEST TO THE CONVECTION. STRONGER WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT OF PRESSURE.
THE SYSTEM STILL DRIFTS SLOWLY GLOBALLY WESTWARDS. IT IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP ON SHIFTING SLOWLY GLOBALLY WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS UNTIL
SATURDAY MORNING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE.
BEYOND, HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA WILL STEER THE
SYSTEM NORTH-NORTH-WESTWARDS. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, SST REMAIN MARGINAL (25 TO 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS). THE WIND-SHEAR IS STILL RATHER LOW BUT IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND.
IRINA SHOULD BE A FILLING UP LOW BY THE TIME IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON
MOZAMBICAN COASTS.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 47/11/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 (EX-IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.4 S / 37.6 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 90 SW: 60 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1013 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/10 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 36.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2012/03/10 12 UTC: 28.3 S / 35.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
36H: 2012/03/11 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 35.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2012/03/11 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 34.6 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
60H: 2012/03/12 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 34.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
72H: 2012/03/12 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 35.8 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
CONVECTION REMAINS QUITE WEAK, AND THE CENTRE IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED
NORTHWEST TO THE CONVECTION. STRONGER WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT OF PRESSURE.
THE SYSTEM STILL DRIFTS SLOWLY GLOBALLY WESTWARDS. IT IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP ON SHIFTING SLOWLY GLOBALLY WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS UNTIL
SATURDAY MORNING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE.
BEYOND, HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA WILL STEER THE
SYSTEM NORTH-NORTH-WESTWARDS. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, SST REMAIN MARGINAL (25 TO 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS). THE WIND-SHEAR IS STILL RATHER LOW BUT IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND.
IRINA SHOULD BE A FILLING UP LOW BY THE TIME IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON
MOZAMBICAN COASTS.
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