SIO: IRINA - Post-Tropical

[HURAKAN]

Quite impressive

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 003//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 17.0S 43.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 43.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.7S 43.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.9S 42.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.7S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.6S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 24.2S 35.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 25.2S 33.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 25.5S 32.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 43.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. TC 14S HAS INTENSIFIED
RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, INCREASING FROM 35 KNOTS TO 60
KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 (KNES/FMEE) TO 65 (PGTW)
KNOTS. THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION DUE TO THE
LACK OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING
THE CENTER. TC 14S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BUT IS FORECAST TO TURN
WESTWARD AS AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
UNTIL AFTER TAU 96 WHEN THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY DUE TO AN
APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THIS FORECAST IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN TRACK SPEEDS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z AND 020300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

center appears to be right over the coast

[DanieleItalyRm]

It's very tiny in this moment.. the little storms it's my favorites
about 180-190km

http://www.sat24.com/en/mg
http://www.sat24.com/af

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared .. interaction with land has weakened the system

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 010705
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/11/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/01 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 44.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :26 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 200 NW: 260
34 KT NE: SE: SW: 90 NW: 150
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 998 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/01 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 43.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/03/02 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/03/02 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 40.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/03/03 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/03/03 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 36.9 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/03/04 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 35.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/05 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 33.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, INLAND
120H: 2012/03/06 06 UTC: 25.6 S / 32.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5 AND CI=3.5-.
LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS INLAND IN THE VICINITY OF MAINTIRANO. INTERACTION
WITH LAND IS WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. DEEP CONVECTION HAS PRACTICALLY
DISAPPEARED IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SYSTEM MIGHT KEEP ON SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK AND RAPIDLY MOVE TOWARDS A BAROMETRIC COL. INTERACTION WITH
LAND COULD DISTURB THE SYSTEM AND LIMIT ITS INTENSITY.
FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON, IT IS EXPECTED THAT SYSTEM TAKE A WESTSOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH REBUILDING OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES
FROM THE WEST. OVERSEA, ENERGETIC CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN GOOD (NO WINDSHEAR UNDER UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES AND ESTABLISHEMENT OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW).
SO, SYSTEM SHOULD BE A MATURE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING ITS LANDFALL ON
THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS FOR THE FINAL TRACK AT THIS TAU (COME BACK OVERSEA OR NET
PENETRATION INLAND) DUE TO SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES GOING FAR AWAY
EASTWARD AND MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH COMING FROM THE WEST.
POTENTIAL THREATENED IS SITUATED BETWEEN POMENE AND VICINITY OF
MAPUTO.

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 011307
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/11/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/01 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 43.7 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :26 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 200 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 90 NW: 150
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 998 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/02 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 42.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/03/02 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/03/03 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 38.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/03/03 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 36.2 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/03/04 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 34.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/03/04 12 UTC: 24.8 S / 33.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/05 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 32.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, INLAND
120H: 2012/03/06 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 31.9 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 AND CI=3.5-.
SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHWARD AND EVOLVES AGAIN OVERSEA.
GENERAL PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED FOR THE LAST HOURS, EVEN IF CLOUD
TOPS ARE WARMER.
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, SYSTEM MIGHT KEEP ON SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDTRACK AND RAPIDLY MOVE TOWARDS A BAROMETRIC COL. FROM FRIDAY, IT IS
EXPECTED THAT SYSTEM PROGRESSIVELY TAKES A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK WITH REBUILDING OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES FROM THE WEST.
OVERSEA, ENERGETIC CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN GOOD (NO WINDSHEAR UNDER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES AND
ESTABLISHMENT OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW).
IN AGREEMENT WITH LAST ECMWF RUN, CHRONOLOGY IS FASTER IN REGARD OF
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SO, SYSTEM MIGHT BE A MATURE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING ITS LANDFALL ON
THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING. AS IT IS EXPECTED
THAT SYSTEM MIGHT MAKE ITS LANDFALL EARLIER AND RATHER RAPIDLY
WEAKEN INLAND, IT DOES NOT UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES GOING FAR AWAY EASTWARD AND MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
COMING FROM THE WEST THAT SHOULD GO AGAIN IT OVERSEA SOUTHWARD.
POTENTIAL THREATENED IS SITUATED ON THE COAST BETWEEN POMENE AND
VICINITY OF MAPUTO.

[HURAKAN]

latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

small eye

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 011920
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/11/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/01 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.8 S / 43.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :26 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 70 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 90 NW: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 998 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/02 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 41.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/03/02 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/03/03 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 36.7 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/03/03 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 35.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/03/04 06 UTC: 24.7 S / 33.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, INLAND
72H: 2012/03/04 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 33.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/05 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 31.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5-
DEEP CONVECTION HAS STRENGTHEN ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE SINCE
1700Z.
F17 MICRO-WAVE PICTURE AT 1522Z SHOWS RATHER WELL ORGANIZED
CONVECTION STRUCTURE.
SYSTEM IS KEEPING ON SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND RAPIDLY MOVESTOWARDS A BAROMETRIC COL.
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD WITH THE REBUILDING OF
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES FROM THE WEST.
OVERNIGHT, ENERGETIC CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVERSEA AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN GOOD (NO WINDSHEAR UNDER UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURES AND GROWING OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW).
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTH OF EUROPA ISLAND TOMORROW MORNING, AT A
DISTANCE OF THE ORDER OF 150 KM, AT THE STAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.
SYSTEM MIGHT BE A MATURE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ITS LANDFALL ON THE
MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING, PROBABLY BETWEEN
POMENE AND VICINITY OF MAPUTO.

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 020118 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/11/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/02 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7 S / 42.3 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/02 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 40.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/03/03 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 37.8 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/03/03 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 35.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/03/04 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 34.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/03/04 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 33.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/03/05 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 32.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/06 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 32.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5+
CLOUD PATTERN HAS CLEARLY IMPROVED WITHIN THE PAST 6 HOURS AND LAST IR
IMAGERY DISPLAYS CONVECTION WRAPPING 1 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL. SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE MIDTROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE.
THROUGH TAU 48, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE PROGRESSIVELY WESTSOUTH-WESTWARD WITH THE REBUILDING OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES
FROM THE WEST.
ON SUNDAY, WITH A TROUGH TRANSITING IN ITS SOUTH, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
TEMPORARILY TRACK MORE SOUTH-WESTWARD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GOOD : SST FAVOURABLE, WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WINDSHEAR UNDER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES AND ESTABLISHED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW THROUGH TAU 36.
IRINA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO KEEP ON DEEPENING.
IT SHOULD APPROACH AT 120 TO 150 KM SOUTH OF EUROPA THIS MORNING,
PROBABLY AT THE STAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.
BEYOND, AS IT SHOULD KEEP ON DEEPENING, IT SHOULD MAKE A LANDFALL AT
THE STAGE OF MATURE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ON THE
MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE, PROBABLY BETWEEN POMENE AND MAPUTO.
ON SUNDAY, IT SHOULD TEMPORARILY COME BACK OVER WATER IN THE BAY OF
MAPUTO.
NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR INLAND DISSIPATION AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

Latest track

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 020711
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/11/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/02 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.1 S / 41.0 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 460 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 170 SW: 260 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/02 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 39.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/03/03 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 36.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/03/03 18 UTC: 24.6 S / 35.2 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/03/04 06 UTC: 24.7 S / 34.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, INLAND
60H: 2012/03/04 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 33.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2012/03/05 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 33.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/06 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 32.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 CI=3.5-
THE SYSTEM IS SUFFERING FROM A NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
CONSTRAINT AS SEEN IN MW IMAGERY OF LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.
LATEST ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS CURRENT INTENSITY AND SHOW A HIGHLY
DISSIMETRIC WIND STRUCTURE. AS EXPECTED, THE TRACK IS RECURVING PROGRESSIVELY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE REBUILDING OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES FROM
THE WEST.
ON SUNDAY, WITH A TROUGH TRANSITING IN ITS SOUTH AND A NEW BAROMETRIC
COL SITUATION, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TEMPORARILY TRACK MORE SOUTHWARDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT SO GOOD : SST FAVOURABLE AND
ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT PERSISTING MODERATE NORTHERLY
CONSTRAINT. THIS CONSTRAINT SHOULD ABATE TOMORROW.
IRINA WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF EUROPA LATER TODAY BUT THE ISLAND IS NOT
THE "GOOD" SIDE WITH NO MAJOR DETERIORATION OF WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
BEYOND, INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AND IRINA COULD MAKE A LANDFALL OR
PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE AT THE STAGE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY NIGHT, SOUTH OF
INHAMBANE.
ON SUNDAY, IT SHOULD TEMPORARILY COME BACK OVER WATER IN THE BAY OF
MAPUTO AND COULD MAKE A NEW LANDFALL MONDAY BETWEEN XAI-XAI AND
MAPUTO.
ALL INTEREST ALONG THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS BETWEEN MAPUTO AND
INHAMBANE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRINA.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 021251
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/11/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/02 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.4 S / 40.0 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 460 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 170 SW: 260 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/03 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 37.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/03/03 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 35.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/03/04 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 34.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/03/04 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 34.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/03/05 00 UTC: 25.8 S / 34.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/03/05 12 UTC: 26.2 S / 34.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/06 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 33.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5 CI=3.0
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STRONGLY DIMISHED ALONG THE DAY WITH NOW AN
EXPOSED CENTER ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD MASS.
THE SYSTEM IS SUFFERING FROM A NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEARCONSTRAINT THAT APPEARS WEAKER THAN THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO
LASTEST CIMSS ANALYSIS.
AS EXPECTED, THE TRACK IS GRADUALLY HEADED TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWESTW WITH THE REBUILDING OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES FROM THE
WEST.
ON SUNDAY, WITH A TROUGH TRANSITING IN ITS SOUTH AND A NEW BAROMETRIC
COL SITUATION, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TEMPORARILY TRACK MORE SOUTHWARDS.
THIS TENDENCY IS MORE PRONOUNCED NOW ACCORDING TO LATEST ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT SO GOOD AT THIS TIME : SST FAVOURABLE
AND ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT PERSISTING MODERATE NORTHERLY
CONSTRAINT. THIS CONSTRAINT SHOULD ABATE TOMORROW.
TOMORROW, INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AND IRINA COULD MAKE A LANDFALL
OR PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE AT A STRONGER INTENSITY
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY NIGHT, SOUTH OF INHAMBANE.
ON SUNDAY, IT SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST AND STAY A BIT LONGER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED OVER SEAS. IRINA COULD STRENGTHEN AND MAKE
A COME BACK TOWARDS THE COAST TUESDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SHOULD REBUILD TO ITS SOUTH.
ALL INTEREST ALONG THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS BETWEEN MAPUTO AND
INHAMBANE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRINA.

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 030109
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/11/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/03 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.4 S / 37.6 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 460 SW: 410 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/03 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 35.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/03/04 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 35.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/03/04 12 UTC: 26.9 S / 34.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/03/05 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 35.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/03/05 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 35.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/03/06 00 UTC: 30.2 S / 37.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/07 00 UTC: 27.4 S / 38.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
120H: 2012/03/08 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 36.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:T=2.5+ CI=3.0
ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY, SYSTEM SHOWS A CURVED BAND WRAPPING
ON 0.5 LAP. 1800Z CIMSS DATA SUGGEST THAT WINDSHEAR HAS VERY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE. WINDS FIELD IS STILL ASYMMETRIC WITH STRONGEST WINDS
EXTENDING FAR AWAY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT
WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
WITHIN THE NEXT 12/18 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES SITUATED IN
THE SOUTH ARE GOING TO STEER THE SYSTEM ON A WESTWARD TRACK. A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WITH WEAKENING WIND-SHEAR.
FROM SATURDAY EVENING, NWP MODELS DIVERGE ON THE FORECAST SYSTEM
TRACK. AMERICAN MODELS CONFIRM A WESTWARD TRACK WITH A LANDFALL
OVER MOZAMBIQUE ON SUNDAY. ECMWF AND ARPEGE FORECAST A
DECELERATION AND SOUTHWARD RECURVE WITH A TROUGH TRANSITING IN THE
SOUTH AND A NEW BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION.
UP TO MONDAY, ECMWF SUGGESTS A SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK
TOWARDS THE LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH AND WITH THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURES SITUATED IN THE EAST. BEYOND, SYSTEM SHOULD TAKE A
NORTHWARD TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURES GOING AWAY EASTWARD AND A
WESTWARD REBUILDING RIDGE. ECMWF ENSEMBLE RUNS ARE VERY DISPERSED AT
THESE TAU.
RSMC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO DETERMINISTIC ECMWF, BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS VERY IMPORTANT.
INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT EVIDENT ON THIS TRACK. DURING SOUTHWARD
TRACK PERIOD, MODERATE WINDSHEAR PERSISTS, SST ARE MORE AND MORE COOL
BUT GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD DEVELOP. WITHIN NORTHWARD TRACK
PERIOD, WINDSHEAR DECREASES AND SST INCREASE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SYSTEM
WILL RE-INTENSIFY DURING THIS LAST PHASE.
THERE IS AN IMPORTANT UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS SCENARIO PROPOSED BY ECMWF.
A DEFINITIVE LANDFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND THEN A RAPID
WEAKENING INLAND OVER MOZAMBIQUE.
DESPITE CURRENT FORECAST, ALL INTEREST ALONG THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS
BETWEEN MAPUTO AND INHAMBANE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE EVOLUTION
OF IRINA.

[HURAKAN]

major chance in the track

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 031322
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/11/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/03 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.8 S / 35.5 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 60 SE: 590 SW: 410 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 80
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 998 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/04 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 34.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/03/04 12 UTC: 28.4 S / 34.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/03/05 00 UTC: 29.9 S / 34.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/03/05 12 UTC: 30.5 S / 36.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/03/06 00 UTC: 30.0 S / 37.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/03/06 12 UTC: 29.0 S / 38.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/07 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 37.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/03/08 12 UTC: 26.2 S / 35.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0- CI=3.0-
BOTH CONVECTIVE AND WINDS FIELD STRUCTURES REMAINS ASYMMETRIC WITH
STRONGEST WINDS EXTENDING FAR AWAY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO
THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
WINDS EXTENSION HAS BEEN RECALIBRATED THANKS TO 03/0716Z ASCAT SWATH.
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, IRINA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARDS
THEN SOUTHWARDS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHPRESSURES TRANSITING SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.
IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE LARGE FETCH IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, A 4
METERS TO 6 METERS CYCLONIC SWELL IS EXPECTED TO THREATEN AFRICAN
COASTLINES FROM 24S TO 33S WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FROM TAU24 TO TAU48, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY RECURVE
SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS A POLAR TROUGH TRANSITING BETWEEN THE TWO
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES AREAS.
THE FIRST AFOREMENTIONED ONE IS MOVING EASTWARDS AWAY AND A NEW ONE
IS REBUILDING IN THE SOUTHWEST.
BEYOND TAU48, IRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A LOOP LEFT-HAND NORTHWARDS
THEN WESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THIS REBUILDING
SUBTROPICAL HIGHS.
WITHIN THE SOUTHWARDS MOTION, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NEUTRAL
(LACK OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW, MARGINAL SST) AND TEMPORARILY
UNFAVOURABLE (WESTERLY WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
05 AND TUESDAY 06), SYSTEM IS THEREFORE NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND
SHOULD TEMPORARILY WEAKEN.
ON AND AFTER WEDNESDAY 07, AS SYSTEM RECURVES NORTHWESTWARDS THEN
WESTWARDS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME BACK FAVOURABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION.
RSMC OFFICIAL FORECAST CONSIDER THIS SCENARIO AS THE MOST LIKELY
(PURPOSED BY ECMWF, ARPEGE AND NOGAPS NWP MODELS).
AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO EXISTS HOWEVER TO FORECAST A GLOBALLY
WESTWARDS TRACK TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE AND THEREFORE AN
EXPECTED LANDFALL NEXT NIGHT OR SUNDAY (GFS, ALADIN AND GFDN NWP
MODELS OPTION).
A RATHER STRONG UNCERTAINTY KEEPS ON EXISTING RELATED TO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
A LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE AT SHORT OR MEDIUM RANGE CAN
NOT BE EXCLUDED.
DESPITE CURRENT FORECAST, ALL INHABITANTS ALONG AFRICAN COASTLINE
BETWEEN 23S AND 30S ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
IRINA.

[Chacor]

Interesting forecast track!