SIO: IRINA - Post-Tropical

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 281224
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/11/20112012
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 11 (EX-IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 44.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/0 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/29 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 43.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2012/02/29 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 43.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/03/01 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 42.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/03/01 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/03/02 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 41.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/03/02 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 40.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/03 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 36.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/03/04 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 34.2 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS COME BACK OVER SEAS YESTERDAY, THEN HAS
TRACKED ALONG THE NORTH-WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTRE REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCALIZE.
CURRENT POSITION IS ESTIMATED THANKS TO 0900Z AND 1200Z MALAGASY
OBSERVATIONS (BELASAMPY AND MAJUNGA) AND JUAN DE NOVA.THE CLOCKWISECIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO GO FAR FROM THE COAST IN THE NEXT HOURS,
COMING BACK OVER A COMPLETE OVERSEAS ENVIRONMENT.
MOST OF AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY WEST ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXISTING IN THE SOUTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS.
THE MODERATE EASTERLY WINDSHEAR, IS ALWAYS LIMITING SYSTEM
INTENSIFICATION, BUT IT IS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN.
EASTERLY WINDSHEAR SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATION BUT THIS
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE VERY GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE TO A STRONG POLEWARD ONE,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVE AND BECOME
FAVOURABLE FOR SIGNIFICATIVE FURTHER RE-INTENSIFICATION.
AN OVERSEA TRACK IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CHANNEL WITHIN THIS FAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW EX-IRINA TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE
ON WEDNESDAY. BEYOND AN EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT SHOULD
WEAKEN IT ON SATURDAY.
NWP AVAILABLE FORECAST TRACKS INVITE THE INHABITANTS OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE TO THE GREATEST CAUTION.
IT'S CURRENTLY NOT POSSIBLE TO PRECISELY TARGET THE POTENTIAL
THREATENED AREAS. THE ALL LONG MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE FROM 18S TO 27S
SHOULD BE INFLUENCES DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY BY THIS METEOR.
CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNING. IT
REMAINS HOWEVER CLOSELY MONITORED IN RELATIONSHIP WITH ITS POTENTIEL
FOR INTENSIFICATION.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATIONS ABOUT THIS SYSTEM WHEN NO TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORECAST ADVISORY (WTIO30) IS ISSUED, REFER TO BULLETIN AWIO20 FOR
CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED BY THE RSMC DAILY AT 1200Z.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

TXXS27 KNES 281234
TCSSIO

A. IRINA (92S)

B. 28/1200Z

C. 16.3S

D. 43.4E

E. FIVE/MET-7

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...0700Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
MAX WIND OF 35KTS. GT 0.3 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET IS 2.0 AND PT
IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

Up to TD:

WTIO30 FMEE 282345
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/11/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 (EX-IRINA)

2.A POSITION 2012/02/29 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 43.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/0 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/29 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 42.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/03/01 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/03/01 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 42.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/03/02 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 41.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/03/02 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/03/03 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 38.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/04 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 34.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/03/05 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 32.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, INLAND

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5-
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCALIZE.
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ENFORCES AND ORGANIZES IN A CURVED BAND
PATTERN IN THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTRE.
MOST OF AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTH-WEST ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR KEEPS ON WEAKENING ALOFT AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY.
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE VERY GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE TO A STRONG POLEWARD ONE,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVE AND BECOME
FAVOURABLE FOR SIGNIFICATIVE FURTHER RE-INTENSIFICATION.
AN OVERSEA TRACK IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CHANNEL WITHIN THIS FAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE
ON FRIDAY.
AVAILABLE NWP FORECAST TRACKS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO A LANDFALL ON
THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE.
THE POTENTIAL THREATENED AREAS REMAINS DIFFICULT AT THIS RANGE TO BE
PRECISELY TARGETED BUT RUNS AFTER RUNS CONCENTRATES IN A REGION
BETWEEN BEIRA AND MAPUTO.=

[HURAKAN]

Looking much better organized

[HURAKAN]

TXXS27 KNES 290027
TCSSIO

A. IRINA (92S)

B. 28/2330Z

C. 15.8S

D. 43.4E

E. THREE/MET-7

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...92S HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY IN THE PAST 24 HRS. SWIR ON
MET9 SUGGESTS LLCC TO BE UNDERNEATH DEEP CONVECTION. 4/10 WHITE BANDING
YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET = 2.5. PT = 2.5. FT IS BASED ON TRADITIONAL
DVORAK CONSTRAINTS LIMITING THE INCREASE OF THE FT TO 0.5 IN SIX HRS
FOR WEAKER SYSTEMS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GUILLOT

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280121Z FEB 12//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 16.2S 43.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 43.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.8S 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.6S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.1S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.9S 41.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 22.9S 37.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 23.7S 34.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 24.2S 32.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 43.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S,
(IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 14S IS OVERCOMING THE
IMPEDIMENTS OF HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS NOW
INTENSIFYING OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ANALYSIS IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF AGENCY DVORAK ASSESSMENTS AND
A PRESSURE REPORT FROM JUAN DE NOVA ISLAND, WHICH IS NEAR THE STORM
CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD OFF THE CAPE ST ANDRE
REGION AND SLOWLY GATHERING STRENGTH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, BUT ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VIGOROUS OUTFLOW
CHANNEL ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ALSO IMPROVING,
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A REGION OF PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THAT IS ALSO REFLECTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER LOOPS, WHICH INDICATE A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. 28-29 DEGREE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE CHANNEL ARE SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATED AN ELONGATED
AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, BUT RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS BETTER ORGANIZATION AND TIGHTER BANDING. TC 14S IS IN
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE, AND THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ALONG THE 30TH LATITUDE. THE NORTHERN ANTICYCLONE IS
DEVELOPING INTO THE DOMINANT FORCE AND WILL DRIVE TC 14S ACROSS THE
CHANNEL AND INTO MOZAMBIQUE, NORTH OF MAPUTO. PEAK INTENSITY WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72 AS THE STORM MOVES THROUGH THE CENTER OF
THE CHANNEL. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN 280121Z FEB 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 280130). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z AND 010300Z.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 290624
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/11/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 (EX-IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/29 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 43.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 80
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/29 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 43.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/03/01 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 43.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/03/01 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/03/02 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 40.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/03/02 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 38.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/03/03 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 36.9 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/04 06 UTC: 24.7 S / 34.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, INLAND
120H: 2012/03/05 06 UTC: 25.6 S / 32.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5-
IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ACCURATELY THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTRE, BUT IT IS PROBABLY VERY CLOSE FROM THE COAST (CF. MSLP 993HPA AT
BESALAMPY AT 03Z).
ACCORDING TO THE LAST MW IMAGERY (F17 AT 0301Z) CLOUD PATTERN REMAINSPOORLY ORGANIZED. LAST ANIMATED METEOSAT PICTURES DEPICT FLUCTUATING
DEEP CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE ESTIMATED CENTRE.
MOST OF AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR KEEPS ON WEAKENING ALOFT. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS
RATHER FAVOURABLE AND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE POLEWARD THROUGH 72
TAU.
WITHIN THIS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, AND AS THE LLCC IS REMOVING
PROGRESSIVELY FROM THE MALAGASY COAST, SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AND SHOULD REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE ON FRIDAY.
AVAILABLE NWP FORECASTED TRACKS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A
LANDFALL ON THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE.
THE POTENTIAL THREATENED AREAS REMAINS DIFFICULT AT THIS RANGE TO BE
PRECISELY TARGETED BUT RUNS AFTER RUNS CONCENTRATES IN A REGION
BETWEEN BEIRA AND MAPUTO.

[HURAKAN]

Latest track

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 291234
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 09/11/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/29 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 43.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 998 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/01 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 43.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/03/01 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 42.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/03/02 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 41.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/03/02 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 40.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/03/03 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 38.0 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/03/03 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 36.3 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/04 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 33.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, INLAND
120H: 2012/03/05 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 32.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5+
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE HAS MOVED GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. 0600Z FIX IS RELOCATED NEAR 16.2S/43.8E.
CONVECTION WRAPS OF 0,5 AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS IMPROVING WESTWARD (CF. WV CHANNEL).
SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING TWO COMPETING ZONAL STEERING FLOWS IN THE MIDTROPOSPHERE, WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE.
TOMORROW (THURSDAY) , SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A BAROMETRIC COL.
ON FRIDAY, THE TRACK SHOULD CURVE WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD WITH THE
REBUILDING OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE.
SYSTEM IS ACTUALLY ALMOST UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE, AXED NEAR 17S. UPPER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS WEAK. A GOOD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL EXISTS EQUATORWARD. IT IS FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY
TOMORROW BY A GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNEL POLEWARD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
OF THE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD REACH THE STAGE OF MATURE TROPICAL CYCLONE
FOR THE FORECASTED LANDFALL ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY
MORNING NORTH OF MAPUTO.

[HURAKAN]

Wrapping up nicely

[HURAKAN]

Eye forming

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 291828
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/11/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/29 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 43.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/01 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 43.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/03/01 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 42.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/03/02 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 41.7 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/03/02 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 40.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/03/03 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/03/03 18 UTC: 23.5 S / 36.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/04 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 34.1 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
120H: 2012/03/05 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 32.3 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=3.5-.
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE HAS TRACKED SLOWLY WESTWARDS DURING
THE NEXT 6 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ENFORCES AND ORGANIZES IN A
CURVED BAND PATTERN, AS THE SYSTEM IS DEEPENING.
THE VERY GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS COMBINED TODAYSTO A STRONG POLEWARD ONE, ALLOWED A RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEME DURING THE NEXT HOURS. ON AND BEYOND TOMORROW THURSDAY,
ONLY THE POLAR ONE IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN.
SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING TWO OPPOSITE STEERING INFLUENCES, IN MEDIUM
TROPOSPHERE. THE FIRST ONE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED
NORTHWARD AND THE OTHER ONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED SOUTHWARD. TOMORROW THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
ACCELERATE SOUTH SOUTH-EASTWARDS TOWARDS A COL. ON FRIDAY AS THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGHS REBUILD THE TRACK SHOULD RECURVED WEST
SOUTHWESTWARDS.
THIS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REACH
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE ON FRIDAY.
AVAILABLE NWP FORECAST TRACKS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO A LANDFALL ON
THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR ON SUNDAY MORNING.
THE POTENTIAL THREATENED AREAS REMAINS DIFFICULT AT THIS RANGE TO BE
PRECISELY TARGETED BUT RUNS AFTER RUNS CONCENTRATES IN A REGION
BETWEEN BEIRA AND MAPUTO.

[wxman57]

Looking like a hurricane now.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared .. I agree wxman57

[Chacor]

Very impressive. JTWC showing 60 knots.

[HURAKAN]

TPXS10 PGTW 291839

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA)

B. 29/1730Z

C. 16.5S

D. 43.7E

E. THREE/MET7

F. T4.0/4.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D1.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY MG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.5. MET YIELDS A
3.0 BASED ON THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE 24HR FT. PT
YIELDS A 4.0. DBO PT. CONATRAINTS WERE BROKEN DUE TO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
29/1530Z 16.5S 43.9E SSMS


LANZETTA

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 010031
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/11/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRINA)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/01 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 43.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 110 SW: 190 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/01 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 43.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/03/02 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 42.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/03/02 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 41.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/03/03 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/03/03 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 37.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/03/04 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 36.0 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/05 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 33.8 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
120H: 2012/03/06 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 32.6 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0+ AND CI=3.5-.
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE HAS TRACKED SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS DURING
THE NEXT 6 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ORGANIZES IN A CDO PATTERN.
THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST LIMITS FOR THE MOMENT THE INTENSIFICATION OF
THE SYSTEM. THE EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BEEN SUBSTITUTED BY A
STRONG POLEWARD ONE, PERSITENT ON ALL THE PERIOD.
SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING TWO OPPOSITE STEERING INFLUENCES, IN MEDIUM
TROPOSPHERE. THE FIRST ONE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED
NORTHWARD AND THE OTHER ONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED SOUTHWARD.SO THE TRACK IS ALWAYS SLOW. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
ACCELERATE TODAY SOUTH SOUTH-WESTWARDS TOWARDS A COL. ON FRIDAY AS
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS REBUILD THE TRACK SHOULD RECURVED WEST
SOUTHWESTWARDS.
THIS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REACH
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE ON FRIDAY.
AVAILABLE NWP FORECAST TRACKS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO A LANDFALL ON
THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR ON SUNDAY MORNING.
THE POTENTIAL THREATENED AREAS REMAINS DIFFICULT AT THIS RANGE TO BE
PRECISELY TARGETED BUT RUNS AFTER RUNS CONCENTRATES IN A REGION
BETWEEN BEIRA AND MAPUTO.