WTIO30 FMEE 081848
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/13/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (KOJI-JONI)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 88.2 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :41 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 480 SW: 500 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 260 SW: 190 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/09 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 86.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/03/09 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 84.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/03/10 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 82.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/03/10 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/03/11 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/03/11 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/12 18 UTC: 24.6 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2012/03/13 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
TROPICAL STORM KOJI HAS BEEN RENAMED KOJI-JONI AFTER CROSSING
LONGITUDE 90°EAST (THUS LEAVING THE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY OF TCWC
PERTH TO ENTER THE AOR OF RSMC LA REUNION). THIS IS A CONSEQUENCE OF A
NEW PROCEDURE ADOPTED IN 2010 FOR THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN BASIN.
WHILE THE PRINCIPLE OF MOVING TOWARDS NOT RENAMING NAMED STORMS
COMING FROM THE SOUTH-EAST INDIAN OCEAN HAS BEEN AGREED UPON, AS AN
INTERIM PHASE IT HAS BEEN DECIDED TO APPEND A HYPHENATED NAME FROMTHE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN NAMING LIST TO THE EXISTING NAME OF THE
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTH-EAST INDIAN OCEAN.
T=3.5 AND CI=3.5
KOJI-JONI SHOW A VERY COLD CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS (CLOUD TOP BELOW -90C
ON MET7 IR IMAGERY). SOME EASTERLY SHEAR IS STILL PRESENT WITH
RESTRICTED OUTFLOW ON THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH A WEAKNESS LOCATED
ALONG 80E.
OVER THIS FORECAST TRACK, EASTERLY WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON
EXISTING ALOFT AND INTENSITY VARIATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FROM SATURDAY, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWARDS IN THE
WEAKNESS AND TOWARDS A TRANSITING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND AFTER A
TEMPORARILY SHEARED RELAX, IS EXPECTED WITHIN SUNDAY TO UNDERGO A
NEW NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT.
SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE CLEARLY WEAKEN AND ITS REMNANTS SHOULD
THEN BEEN STEERED WESTWARDS BY TRADE WINDS FLOW.
SIO: KOJI-JONI - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 090052
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/13/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (KOJI-JONI)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 87.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :41 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 480 SW: 500 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 280 SW: 190 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/09 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 84.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/03/10 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 82.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/03/10 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/03/11 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/03/11 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/03/12 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/13 00 UTC: 26.1 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2012/03/14 00 UTC: 28.3 S / 76.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
TROPICAL STORM KOJI HAS BEEN RENAMED KOJI-JONI AFTER CROSSING
LONGITUDE 90 EAST (THUS LEAVING THE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY OF TCWC
PERTH TO ENTER THE AOR OF RSMC LA REUNION). THIS IS A CONSEQUENCE OF A
NEW PROCEDURE ADOPTED IN 2010 FOR THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN BASIN.
WHILE THE PRINCIPLE OF MOVING TOWARDS NOT RENAMING NAMED STORMS
COMING FROM THE SOUTH-EAST INDIAN OCEAN HAS BEEN AGREED UPON, AS ANINTERIM PHASE IT HAS BEEN DECIDED TO APPEND A HYPHENATED NAME FROM
THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN NAMING LIST TO THE EXISTING NAME OF THE
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTH-EAST INDIAN OCEAN.
T=4.0- AND CI=4.0-
SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED OVERNIGHT. TRMM PASS OF 2054Z SHOW
AN EYE PATTERN IN THE MID LEVEL BUT NOT VERTICALLY IN PHASE WITH THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER (DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MID LEVEL EYE)
THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITHIN THE NEXT
THREE DAYS: KOJI-JONI IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTSOUTH-WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH A
WEAKNESS LOCATED ALONG 80E. ON THIS TRACK, EASTERLY WINDSHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP ON EXISTING ALOFT BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RELAX
AND ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWARDS IN
THE WEAKNESS AND TOWARDS A TRANSITING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. LATE
SATURDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE AT THEIR BEST FOR THE
SYSTEM AS IT SHOULD LIE ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ... HOWEVER SOME
NORTHERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A BIT BY THAT TIME. SST AND OCEANIC
HEAT CONTAIN ARE FAVOURABLE UP TO AROUND 22S.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND
UNDERGO AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY SHEAR ... SO A WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED BU THAT TIME. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LATEST ECMWF
OUTPUT SHOW NOW A CONTINUING SOUTHWARDS TRACK WITHOUT A CLEAR
WESTWARDS TURN. GIVEN THE RATHER HIGH SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE
BY THAT TIME, THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MEAN SOLUTION.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/13/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (KOJI-JONI)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 87.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :41 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 480 SW: 500 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 280 SW: 190 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/09 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 84.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/03/10 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 82.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/03/10 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/03/11 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/03/11 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/03/12 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/13 00 UTC: 26.1 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2012/03/14 00 UTC: 28.3 S / 76.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
TROPICAL STORM KOJI HAS BEEN RENAMED KOJI-JONI AFTER CROSSING
LONGITUDE 90 EAST (THUS LEAVING THE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY OF TCWC
PERTH TO ENTER THE AOR OF RSMC LA REUNION). THIS IS A CONSEQUENCE OF A
NEW PROCEDURE ADOPTED IN 2010 FOR THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN BASIN.
WHILE THE PRINCIPLE OF MOVING TOWARDS NOT RENAMING NAMED STORMS
COMING FROM THE SOUTH-EAST INDIAN OCEAN HAS BEEN AGREED UPON, AS ANINTERIM PHASE IT HAS BEEN DECIDED TO APPEND A HYPHENATED NAME FROM
THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN NAMING LIST TO THE EXISTING NAME OF THE
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTH-EAST INDIAN OCEAN.
T=4.0- AND CI=4.0-
SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED OVERNIGHT. TRMM PASS OF 2054Z SHOW
AN EYE PATTERN IN THE MID LEVEL BUT NOT VERTICALLY IN PHASE WITH THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER (DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MID LEVEL EYE)
THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITHIN THE NEXT
THREE DAYS: KOJI-JONI IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTSOUTH-WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH A
WEAKNESS LOCATED ALONG 80E. ON THIS TRACK, EASTERLY WINDSHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP ON EXISTING ALOFT BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RELAX
AND ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWARDS IN
THE WEAKNESS AND TOWARDS A TRANSITING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. LATE
SATURDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE AT THEIR BEST FOR THE
SYSTEM AS IT SHOULD LIE ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ... HOWEVER SOME
NORTHERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A BIT BY THAT TIME. SST AND OCEANIC
HEAT CONTAIN ARE FAVOURABLE UP TO AROUND 22S.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND
UNDERGO AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY SHEAR ... SO A WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED BU THAT TIME. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LATEST ECMWF
OUTPUT SHOW NOW A CONTINUING SOUTHWARDS TRACK WITHOUT A CLEAR
WESTWARDS TURN. GIVEN THE RATHER HIGH SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE
BY THAT TIME, THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MEAN SOLUTION.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 091210
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/13/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (KOJI-JONI)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 86.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :44 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 480 SW: 500 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 280 SW: 190 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/09 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 83.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/03/10 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/03/10 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 79.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/03/11 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/03/11 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/03/12 06 UTC: 25.6 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/13 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
120H: 2012/03/14 06 UTC: 30.3 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0-
AMSU PASS OF 0742Z SHOW THAT CONVECTION HAS DIFFICULTIES TO RESIST TO
THE NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT, IT REMAINS ONLY THE WESTERN
PART OF THE CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE EXISTING AT THE END OF THE NIGHT
IN THE MID LEVEL. THE CENTRE IS ALWAYS NOT VERTICALLY IN PHASE WITHCONVECTION.
THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITHIN THE NEXT
THREE DAYS: KOJI-JONI IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTSOUTH-WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH A
WEAKNESS LOCATED ALONG 80E. ON THIS TRACK, EASTERLY WINDSHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP ON EXISTING ALOFT BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RELAX
SATURDAY AND ALLOW SOME LITTLE STRENGTHENING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWARDS IN
THE WEAKNESS AND TOWARDS A TRANSITING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. LATE
SATURDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE AT THEIR BEST FOR THE
SYSTEM AS IT SHOULD LIE ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ... HOWEVER SOME
NORTHERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A BIT BY THAT TIME. SST AND OCEANIC
HEAT CONTAIN FAVOURABLE UP TO AROUND 21S, MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND
UNDERGO AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY SHEAR ... SO A WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/13/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (KOJI-JONI)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 86.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :44 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 480 SW: 500 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 280 SW: 190 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/09 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 83.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/03/10 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/03/10 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 79.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/03/11 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/03/11 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/03/12 06 UTC: 25.6 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/13 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
120H: 2012/03/14 06 UTC: 30.3 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0-
AMSU PASS OF 0742Z SHOW THAT CONVECTION HAS DIFFICULTIES TO RESIST TO
THE NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT, IT REMAINS ONLY THE WESTERN
PART OF THE CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE EXISTING AT THE END OF THE NIGHT
IN THE MID LEVEL. THE CENTRE IS ALWAYS NOT VERTICALLY IN PHASE WITHCONVECTION.
THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITHIN THE NEXT
THREE DAYS: KOJI-JONI IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTSOUTH-WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH A
WEAKNESS LOCATED ALONG 80E. ON THIS TRACK, EASTERLY WINDSHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP ON EXISTING ALOFT BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RELAX
SATURDAY AND ALLOW SOME LITTLE STRENGTHENING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWARDS IN
THE WEAKNESS AND TOWARDS A TRANSITING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. LATE
SATURDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE AT THEIR BEST FOR THE
SYSTEM AS IT SHOULD LIE ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ... HOWEVER SOME
NORTHERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A BIT BY THAT TIME. SST AND OCEANIC
HEAT CONTAIN FAVOURABLE UP TO AROUND 21S, MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND
UNDERGO AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY SHEAR ... SO A WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 091850
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/13/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (KOJI-JONI)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/09 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 83.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :32 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 460 SW: 460 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 280 SW: 310 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/10 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 81.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/03/10 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/03/11 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/03/11 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/03/12 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/03/12 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/13 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 81.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2012/03/14 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5- AND CI=4.0-
MICROWAVE SSMIS F18 09/1450Z REVEALS A DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CLOSE TO
THE CENTRE BUT ORGANIZED IN A SMALL CURVED BAND FEATURE.
INFRARED METEOSAT7 IMAGERY SHOWS HOWEVER A VERY COLD CCC, SIGN OF ANALMOST STATIONNARY INTENSITY.
T NUMBER HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY REDUCED TO TAKE IN ACCOUNT THE CONVECTIVE
INNER STRUCTURE REVEALED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS.
THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED WITHIN THE NEXT THREE
DAYS: KOJI-JONI IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH A WEAKNESS
LOCATED ALONG 80E. ON THIS TRACK, EASTERLY WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP ON EXISTING ALOFT BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RELAX SATURDAY
AND ALLOW SOME LITTLE STRENGTHENING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWARDS IN
THE WEAKNESS AND TOWARDS A TRANSITING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. LATE
SATURDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE AT THEIR BEST FOR THE
SYSTEM AS IT SHOULD LIE ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ... HOWEVER SOME
NORTHERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO STILL EXIST BY THAT TIME. SST AND OCEANIC
HEAT CONTAIN FAVOURABLE UP TO AROUND 21S, MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND
UNDERGO AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY SHEAR ... SO A WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/13/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (KOJI-JONI)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/09 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 83.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :32 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 460 SW: 460 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 280 SW: 310 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/10 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 81.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/03/10 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/03/11 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/03/11 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/03/12 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/03/12 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/13 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 81.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2012/03/14 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5- AND CI=4.0-
MICROWAVE SSMIS F18 09/1450Z REVEALS A DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CLOSE TO
THE CENTRE BUT ORGANIZED IN A SMALL CURVED BAND FEATURE.
INFRARED METEOSAT7 IMAGERY SHOWS HOWEVER A VERY COLD CCC, SIGN OF ANALMOST STATIONNARY INTENSITY.
T NUMBER HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY REDUCED TO TAKE IN ACCOUNT THE CONVECTIVE
INNER STRUCTURE REVEALED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS.
THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED WITHIN THE NEXT THREE
DAYS: KOJI-JONI IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH A WEAKNESS
LOCATED ALONG 80E. ON THIS TRACK, EASTERLY WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP ON EXISTING ALOFT BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RELAX SATURDAY
AND ALLOW SOME LITTLE STRENGTHENING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWARDS IN
THE WEAKNESS AND TOWARDS A TRANSITING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. LATE
SATURDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE AT THEIR BEST FOR THE
SYSTEM AS IT SHOULD LIE ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ... HOWEVER SOME
NORTHERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO STILL EXIST BY THAT TIME. SST AND OCEANIC
HEAT CONTAIN FAVOURABLE UP TO AROUND 21S, MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND
UNDERGO AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY SHEAR ... SO A WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 100118
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/13/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (KOJI-JONI)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 82.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 17 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :39 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 460 SW: 460 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/10 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/03/11 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/03/11 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/03/12 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/03/12 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 80.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2012/03/13 00 UTC: 29.2 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/14 00 UTC: 30.4 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
120H: 2012/03/15 00 UTC: 33.6 S / 80.7 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 AND CI=3.5
BOTH MICROWAVE TRMM 09/1958Z AND SSMI F15 09/2216Z SWATHS KEEP ONSHOWING A LLCC (37GHZ) DEPHASED AT ABOUT 20NM NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE ONE(85GHZ).
DESPITE A CLEARLY ACCELERATING MOTION, NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR REMAINS OBVIOUS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.
KOJI-KONI IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO PROGRESSIVELY RECURVE
SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT.
OVER THIS FORECAST TRACK, SYSTEM WILL CROSS UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (AXED ALONG 20S) AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEREFORE TEMPORARILY IMPROVE ALOFT AND LIMIT THE SYSTEM
CURRENT WEAKENING TREND.
SUNDAY 11 AND MONDAY 12, SYSTEM SHOULD KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY
SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS.
NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REGULARLY
STRENGTHEN AND SYSTEM WOULD THEREFORE RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER
UNFAVOURABLE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT SOUTH OF 21S.
TUESDAY 13, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLEARLY SLOW DOWN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES CELL TRANSITING IN ITS SOUTH
THEN TO ACCELERATE WEDNESDAY 14 AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CELL MOVE
AWAY EASTWARDS.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/13/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (KOJI-JONI)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 82.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 17 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :39 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 460 SW: 460 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/10 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/03/11 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/03/11 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/03/12 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/03/12 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 80.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2012/03/13 00 UTC: 29.2 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/14 00 UTC: 30.4 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
120H: 2012/03/15 00 UTC: 33.6 S / 80.7 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 AND CI=3.5
BOTH MICROWAVE TRMM 09/1958Z AND SSMI F15 09/2216Z SWATHS KEEP ONSHOWING A LLCC (37GHZ) DEPHASED AT ABOUT 20NM NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE ONE(85GHZ).
DESPITE A CLEARLY ACCELERATING MOTION, NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR REMAINS OBVIOUS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.
KOJI-KONI IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO PROGRESSIVELY RECURVE
SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT.
OVER THIS FORECAST TRACK, SYSTEM WILL CROSS UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (AXED ALONG 20S) AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEREFORE TEMPORARILY IMPROVE ALOFT AND LIMIT THE SYSTEM
CURRENT WEAKENING TREND.
SUNDAY 11 AND MONDAY 12, SYSTEM SHOULD KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY
SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS.
NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REGULARLY
STRENGTHEN AND SYSTEM WOULD THEREFORE RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER
UNFAVOURABLE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT SOUTH OF 21S.
TUESDAY 13, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLEARLY SLOW DOWN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES CELL TRANSITING IN ITS SOUTH
THEN TO ACCELERATE WEDNESDAY 14 AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CELL MOVE
AWAY EASTWARDS.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 101256
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/13/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (KOJI-JONI)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 80.0 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :39 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 460 SW: 460 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/11 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/03/11 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/03/12 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/03/12 12 UTC: 26.4 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/03/13 00 UTC: 27.7 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2012/03/13 12 UTC: 28.8 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/14 12 UTC: 32.2 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
120H: 2012/03/15 12 UTC: 37.3 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND=010 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 AND CI=3.5
WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS, CONVECTION HAS BECAME FLUCTUATING. SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING AGAINST A WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH-EASTERLY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS) UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONIC CELL AXED ALONG 18S.
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, KOJI-JONI SHOULD RECURVE GLOBALLY SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE IN ITS EAST. FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 72, IT IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN
SOUTHWARD WITH THE REBUILDING OF THE LOW-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURES.
ON THIS TRACK, ON AND AFTER TAU 12, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEGRADE RAPIDLY . INDEED, VWS SHOULD INCREASE SHARPLY AHEAD AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS UNSUFFICIENT SOUTH OF 22S.
SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY ON AND AFTER NEXT NIGHT.
AFTER TAU 72, SYSTEM SHOULD FILL UP AS IT SHOULD TRACK AROUND THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONNED LOW-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURES.
ACTUAL RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS
WHICH ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR THE TRACK FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BUT
ARE MORE AND MORE SPREAD BEYOND, BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS THE
EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/13/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (KOJI-JONI)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 80.0 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :39 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 460 SW: 460 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/11 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/03/11 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/03/12 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/03/12 12 UTC: 26.4 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/03/13 00 UTC: 27.7 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2012/03/13 12 UTC: 28.8 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/14 12 UTC: 32.2 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
120H: 2012/03/15 12 UTC: 37.3 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND=010 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 AND CI=3.5
WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS, CONVECTION HAS BECAME FLUCTUATING. SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING AGAINST A WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH-EASTERLY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS) UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONIC CELL AXED ALONG 18S.
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, KOJI-JONI SHOULD RECURVE GLOBALLY SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE IN ITS EAST. FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 72, IT IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN
SOUTHWARD WITH THE REBUILDING OF THE LOW-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURES.
ON THIS TRACK, ON AND AFTER TAU 12, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEGRADE RAPIDLY . INDEED, VWS SHOULD INCREASE SHARPLY AHEAD AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS UNSUFFICIENT SOUTH OF 22S.
SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY ON AND AFTER NEXT NIGHT.
AFTER TAU 72, SYSTEM SHOULD FILL UP AS IT SHOULD TRACK AROUND THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONNED LOW-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURES.
ACTUAL RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS
WHICH ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR THE TRACK FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BUT
ARE MORE AND MORE SPREAD BEYOND, BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS THE
EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.
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-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 101828
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/13/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (KOJI-JONI)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5 S / 79.8 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :39 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 460 SW: 460 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/11 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 78.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/03/11 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/03/12 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/03/12 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 79.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2012/03/13 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2012/03/13 18 UTC: 30.0 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/14 18 UTC: 34.0 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
120H: 2012/03/15 18 UTC: 40.8 S / 86.8 E, MAX WIND=000 , DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
CONVECTION HAS REBUILT INTO A REGULAR CDO PATTERN, WITH THE BENEFIT OF
AN EFFICIENT POLAR OUTFLOW HELPING IT TO RESIST TO A WEAK TO MODERATE
NORTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS) UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONIC CELL AXED ALONG 20S. WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, KOJI-JONI SHOULD RECURVE GLOBALLY SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE IN ITS EAST. FROM TAU 48 TO TAU 84, IT IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN
SOUTHWARD WITH THE REBUILDING OF THE LOW-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURES.
ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEGRADE
DURING THE NEXT HOURS. INDEED, VWS SHOULD INCREASE SHARPLY AHEAD AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS INSUFFICIENT SOUTH OF
22S.
SO SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY ON AND AFTER NEXT NIGHT.
AFTER TAU 84, SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO FILL UP AS IT TRACKS AROUND THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONNED LOW-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURES.
ACTUAL RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS
WHICH ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR THE TRACK FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BUT
ARE MORE AND MORE SPREAD BEYOND, BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS THE
EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/13/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (KOJI-JONI)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5 S / 79.8 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :39 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 460 SW: 460 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/11 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 78.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/03/11 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/03/12 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/03/12 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 79.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2012/03/13 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2012/03/13 18 UTC: 30.0 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/14 18 UTC: 34.0 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
120H: 2012/03/15 18 UTC: 40.8 S / 86.8 E, MAX WIND=000 , DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
CONVECTION HAS REBUILT INTO A REGULAR CDO PATTERN, WITH THE BENEFIT OF
AN EFFICIENT POLAR OUTFLOW HELPING IT TO RESIST TO A WEAK TO MODERATE
NORTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS) UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONIC CELL AXED ALONG 20S. WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, KOJI-JONI SHOULD RECURVE GLOBALLY SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE IN ITS EAST. FROM TAU 48 TO TAU 84, IT IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN
SOUTHWARD WITH THE REBUILDING OF THE LOW-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURES.
ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEGRADE
DURING THE NEXT HOURS. INDEED, VWS SHOULD INCREASE SHARPLY AHEAD AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS INSUFFICIENT SOUTH OF
22S.
SO SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY ON AND AFTER NEXT NIGHT.
AFTER TAU 84, SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO FILL UP AS IT TRACKS AROUND THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONNED LOW-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURES.
ACTUAL RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS
WHICH ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR THE TRACK FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BUT
ARE MORE AND MORE SPREAD BEYOND, BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS THE
EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 111839
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/13/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (KOJI-JONI)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2 S / 80.6 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 500 SW: 560 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/12 06 UTC: 27.7 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/03/12 18 UTC: 29.7 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
36H: 2012/03/13 06 UTC: 30.3 S / 82.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
48H: 2012/03/13 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 82.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
60H: 2012/03/14 06 UTC: 31.5 S / 83.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
72H: 2012/03/14 18 UTC: 33.0 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5+, CI=3.0+
KOJI-JONI CLEARLY UNDERGOES THE NORTH-WESTERLY STRENGTHENING
VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR AHEAD AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH, WITH
CONVECTION FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND
DESPITE A BURST OF CONVECTION DEPICTED ON THE LAST ANIMATED INFRA-RED
PICTURES. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, KOJI-JONI SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE SITUATED IN ITS EAST. FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 72, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW
DOWN AS HIGH PERSSURES SHOULD REBUILT TEMPORARILY IN ITS SOUTH.
ON THIS TRACK, DEGRADATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL GO
ON, WITH STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR AND DECREASING
SST (UNDER 25°C). SO, KOJI-JONI IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RATHER RAPIDLY.
AFTER TAU 48, SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO FILL UP WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDES.
ACTUAL RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE NWP MODELS WHICH
ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR THE TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24/36 HOURS, BUT ARE
MORE AND MORE SPREAD BEYOND, BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS THE EVACUATION
OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/13/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (KOJI-JONI)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2 S / 80.6 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 500 SW: 560 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/12 06 UTC: 27.7 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/03/12 18 UTC: 29.7 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
36H: 2012/03/13 06 UTC: 30.3 S / 82.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
48H: 2012/03/13 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 82.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
60H: 2012/03/14 06 UTC: 31.5 S / 83.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
72H: 2012/03/14 18 UTC: 33.0 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5+, CI=3.0+
KOJI-JONI CLEARLY UNDERGOES THE NORTH-WESTERLY STRENGTHENING
VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR AHEAD AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH, WITH
CONVECTION FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND
DESPITE A BURST OF CONVECTION DEPICTED ON THE LAST ANIMATED INFRA-RED
PICTURES. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, KOJI-JONI SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE SITUATED IN ITS EAST. FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 72, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW
DOWN AS HIGH PERSSURES SHOULD REBUILT TEMPORARILY IN ITS SOUTH.
ON THIS TRACK, DEGRADATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL GO
ON, WITH STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR AND DECREASING
SST (UNDER 25°C). SO, KOJI-JONI IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RATHER RAPIDLY.
AFTER TAU 48, SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO FILL UP WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDES.
ACTUAL RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE NWP MODELS WHICH
ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR THE TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24/36 HOURS, BUT ARE
MORE AND MORE SPREAD BEYOND, BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS THE EVACUATION
OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 120648
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/13/20112012
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 (EX-KOJI-JONI)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/12 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.7 S / 81.4 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL
FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :120 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 470 SW: 370 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 390 SW: 310 NW: 170
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/12 18 UTC: 30.0 S / 83.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
24H: 2012/03/13 06 UTC: 30.7 S / 85.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
36H: 2012/03/13 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 86.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
48H: 2012/03/14 06 UTC: 30.7 S / 85.7 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
60H: 2012/03/14 18 UTC: 31.8 S / 85.2 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, LOW
72H: 2012/03/15 06 UTC: 34.7 S / 85.8 E, MAX WIND=010 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
ASCAT DATA FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING ALONG WITH AMSUA
BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE CROSS PROFILES SHOW THAT KOJI-JONI IS NOW AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. MAX WINDS IS CALIBRATED ACCORDING TO LATEST
ASCAT PASS OF 0407Z.
UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING, EX-KOJI-JONI SHOULD GO ON TRACKING SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE IN ITS EAST. AFTERTHAT AND UNTIL WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
SLOW DOWN AS HIGH PERSSURES SHOULD REBUILT TEMPORARILY IN ITS SOUTH.THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESUME AN ACCELERATING SOUTHWARDS
TRACK.
ON THIS TRACK, EX-KOJI-JONI SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE GALE FORCE
WINDS UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING. AFTER-THAT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY FILL-UP.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/13/20112012
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 (EX-KOJI-JONI)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/12 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.7 S / 81.4 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL
FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :120 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 470 SW: 370 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 390 SW: 310 NW: 170
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/12 18 UTC: 30.0 S / 83.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
24H: 2012/03/13 06 UTC: 30.7 S / 85.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
36H: 2012/03/13 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 86.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
48H: 2012/03/14 06 UTC: 30.7 S / 85.7 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
60H: 2012/03/14 18 UTC: 31.8 S / 85.2 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, LOW
72H: 2012/03/15 06 UTC: 34.7 S / 85.8 E, MAX WIND=010 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
ASCAT DATA FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING ALONG WITH AMSUA
BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE CROSS PROFILES SHOW THAT KOJI-JONI IS NOW AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. MAX WINDS IS CALIBRATED ACCORDING TO LATEST
ASCAT PASS OF 0407Z.
UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING, EX-KOJI-JONI SHOULD GO ON TRACKING SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE IN ITS EAST. AFTERTHAT AND UNTIL WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
SLOW DOWN AS HIGH PERSSURES SHOULD REBUILT TEMPORARILY IN ITS SOUTH.THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESUME AN ACCELERATING SOUTHWARDS
TRACK.
ON THIS TRACK, EX-KOJI-JONI SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE GALE FORCE
WINDS UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING. AFTER-THAT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY FILL-UP.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 121220
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/13/20112012
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 (EX-KOJI-JONI)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.2 S / 82.7 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 17 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :120 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 470 SW: 370 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 390 SW: 310 NW: 170
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/13 00 UTC: 30.9 S / 84.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
24H: 2012/03/13 12 UTC: 30.6 S / 86.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
36H: 2012/03/14 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 85.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
48H: 2012/03/14 12 UTC: 31.5 S / 85.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
60H: 2012/03/15 00 UTC: 33.6 S / 85.6 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, LOW
72H: 2012/03/15 12 UTC: 35.7 S / 86.1 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, DISSIPATING
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM, STILL EXTRATROPICAL, SHOW A LOW LEVEL VORTEX AVOID FROM
DEEP CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ITS
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. MAX WINDS ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM ASCAT PASS OF
0407Z.
TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AS HIGH
PERSSURES SHOULD REBUILT TEMPORARILY IN ITS SOUTH. THURSDAY, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD RESUME AN ACCELERATING SOUTHWARDS TRACK. ON THIS TRACK, EX-KOJI-JONI SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE GALE FORCE
WINDS UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING. AFTER-THAT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY FILL-UP.
THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/13/20112012
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 (EX-KOJI-JONI)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.2 S / 82.7 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 17 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :120 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 470 SW: 370 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 390 SW: 310 NW: 170
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/13 00 UTC: 30.9 S / 84.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
24H: 2012/03/13 12 UTC: 30.6 S / 86.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
36H: 2012/03/14 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 85.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
48H: 2012/03/14 12 UTC: 31.5 S / 85.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
60H: 2012/03/15 00 UTC: 33.6 S / 85.6 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, LOW
72H: 2012/03/15 12 UTC: 35.7 S / 86.1 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, DISSIPATING
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM, STILL EXTRATROPICAL, SHOW A LOW LEVEL VORTEX AVOID FROM
DEEP CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ITS
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. MAX WINDS ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM ASCAT PASS OF
0407Z.
TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AS HIGH
PERSSURES SHOULD REBUILT TEMPORARILY IN ITS SOUTH. THURSDAY, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD RESUME AN ACCELERATING SOUTHWARDS TRACK. ON THIS TRACK, EX-KOJI-JONI SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE GALE FORCE
WINDS UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING. AFTER-THAT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY FILL-UP.
THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
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