SIO: LUA - Post-Tropical

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HURAKAN
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#81 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Mar 17, 2012 7:15 am

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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 33
Issued at 7:53 pm WST on Saturday 17 March 2012

A Cyclone WARNING is current for inland parts of the east Pilbara, including
Nullagine, Newman and Jigalong, the eastern Gascoyne including Meekatharra and
the far northern Goldfields including Wiluna.

The Cyclone Warning for areas near Marble Bar and Yarrie has been cancelled.

At 8:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category 3 was estimated to be
170 kilometres south southeast of Pardoo
220 kilometres southeast of Port Hedland
moving south at 30 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua crossed the east Pilbara coast just to the east of
Pardoo Station around 3pm WST Saturday. Overnight Lua will continue weakening
and moving south through the inland Pilbara.

Gales are occurring in inland areas south east of Marble Bar.

Very Destructive wind gusts in excess of 165 kilometres per hour are possible
near the cyclone centre during the next hour.

As the cyclone moves further inland, gales should reach the eastern Gascoyne
areas, adjacent Interior and far northern Goldfields on Sunday morning.

Heavy rainfall in inland parts of the east Pilbara is expected to extend into
the eastern Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields overnight and
during Sunday.

Heavy surf conditions along the west Kimberley coast are expected to ease
during Sunday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in inland areas of the Pilbara including Marble Bar,
Nullagine, Woodie Woodie, Nifty and Moly Mines and all other adjacent mining
and pastoral leases need to remain in shelter or go to shelter immediately.

YELLOW ALERT: People in remaining inland Pilbara communities in and near
Newman, Jigalong and adjacent communities, pastoral stations and mining leases
need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near Wiluna, Meekatharra and all adjacent communiites,
pastoral stations and mining leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and
organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare
batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION
People in coastal communities from Dampier to Broome, including the towns of
Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Sampson, Port and South Hedland, Bidyadanga
are advised that the wind danger has passed. People in Telfer, Warralong,
Yarrie and Yandeyarra are also advised that the wind danger has passed.


Remaining communities in the inland eastern Pilbara, east Gascoyne and western
Interior should listen for the next advice.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 21.5 degrees South 120.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 165 kilometres per hour and WEAKENING
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 971 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Saturday 17 March.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone
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Re: SIO: LUA - Severe Tropical Cyclone (17S)

#82 Postby P.K. » Sat Mar 17, 2012 7:28 am

Landfall was as a 95kt cat 4 with a centre pressure of 932hPa.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0643 UTC 17/03/2012
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 19.8S
Longitude: 120.0E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [163 deg]
Speed of Movement: 13 knots [23 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 95 knots [175 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 135 knots [250 km/h]
Central Pressure: 932 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 170 nm [315 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 996 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 17/1800: 22.9S 120.1E: 040 [075]: 050 [095]: 978
+24: 18/0600: 26.3S 120.0E: 070 [130]: 035 [065]: 987
+36: 18/1800: 29.1S 120.6E: 105 [190]: 030 [055]: 989
+48: 19/0600: : : :
+60: 19/1800: : : :
+72: 20/0600: : : :
REMARKS:
Severe TC Lua is currently crossing the east Pilbara coast near Pardoo as shown
on the Port Hedland radar.

Intensity is estimated at 95 knots [category 4] at the top of the Dvorak 5.5
range although DT is at 5.0 based on IR embedded centre pattern [in white] and
MET is now at 5.0 as well. The high intensity estimate is also influenced by
Rowley Shoals observations earlier today: 938.8hPa at 1am and 75 knot mean winds
at 3am. As these are hourly reports, stronger intensites are probable, hence the
central pressure is estimated at 932hPa.

Lua has a very large wind field with storm force winds extending about 2 degrees
in the northern sector augmented by the strong monsoonal flow. This is
generating signficant waves north and east of the system.

Lua will weaken as it moves on a general southerly track inland but could still
be at cyclone intensity until Sunday afternoon. The system will still cause
heavy rain and gusty conditions through parts of southern WA after it weakens
below tropical cyclone intensity.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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Re: SIO: LUA - Severe Tropical Cyclone (17S)

#83 Postby HurricaneBill » Sat Mar 17, 2012 7:35 pm

P.K. wrote:Landfall was as a 95kt cat 4 with a centre pressure of 932hPa.


That translates to 1-min sustained winds of around 108KT or around 125mph. A strong category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Interestingly, JTWC had Lua with 1-min sustained winds of only 90KT at landfall.
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#84 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Mar 17, 2012 10:20 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 39
Issued at 8:56 am WST on Sunday 18 March 2012

A Cyclone WARNING is current for the eastern Gascoyne, far western Interior and
the far northern Goldfields including Three Rivers and Wiluna.

The Cyclone WARNING has been cancelled for the southeast Pilbara including
Nullagine, Newman and Jigalong.

At 8:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category 1 was estimated to be
220 kilometres north of Wiluna
moving south at 30 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Lua crossed the east Pilbara coast just to the east of Pardoo
Station around 3pm WST Saturday. Lua has moved southwards and steadily weekened
since then. The system is expected to weaken below cyclone intensity by noon
Sunday.

Gales are occurring in the northeast Gascoyne and adjacent far western Interior
and expected to ease during the morning. Damaging wind gusts to 100 kilometres
per hour are possible near the cyclone centre in the eastern Gascoyne, western
Interior and northern Goldfields during Sunday and are expected to persist
until evening. Refer Severe Weather Warning [IDW28001] for more information.

Heavy rainfall in the eastern Gascoyne, far northern Goldfields and far western
Interior should extend south into the remaining Goldfields during Sunday.
Rainfall should ease in the northern Gascoyne during the day.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: People in or near Wiluna and all adjacent communities, pastoral
stations and mining leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an
emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries,
food and water.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION
People in remaining parts of the eastern Gascoyne and inland areas of the
Pilbara including Meekatharra, Nullagine, Newman, Jigalong, Woodie Woodie,
Nifty Mine, Moly Mines, Telfer, Warralong, Yarrie and Yandeyarra are advised
that the wind danger has passed. People in coastal communities from Dampier to
Broome, including the towns of Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Sampson,
Port and South Hedland, Marble Bar and Bidyadanga are advised that the wind
danger has passed.

Remaining communities in the east Gascoyne, western Interior and northern
Goldfields should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Lua at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 24.6 degrees South 120.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour and WEAKENING
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 988 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Sunday 18 March.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone
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