SPO: 17U - Tropical Low (96P)

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#21 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Mar 15, 2012 10:13 pm

RobWESTPACWX wrote:Thanks for watching the video, just tossed a new one up here today, you got the temp of the water over the sea there? Has to be in the 30's.


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Link: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDY00008.shtml
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#22 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Mar 16, 2012 9:28 am

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organizing
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#23 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Mar 16, 2012 2:25 pm

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Boom!
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#24 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Mar 16, 2012 2:26 pm

Potential Cyclones:
A Tropical Low, 994 hPa, was located in the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria near
16.5S 140.7E, about 110km north of Karumba in Queensland at 3:30am CST on 17th
March. The low is expected to remain over southern Gulf waters over the next few
days and may intensify into a cyclone early in the new week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern Region on:
Saturday: Low.
Sunday: Moderate.
Monday: High.
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#25 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Mar 16, 2012 2:26 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.2S 138.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 40 NM SOUTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING OVER A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE MORNINGTON ISLAND RADAR SHOWS CONVERGENT FLOW AND THE BULK OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 160846Z SSMIS
IMAGE INDICATES WEAK, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND INDICATE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 10-20 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 997 MB AND A 24-HOUR
SLP DECREASE OF ABOUT 5 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH 20-30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE LLCC. IN GENERAL, THE DYNAMIC MODELS TRACK
THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF CARPENTARIA WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AND INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM STALLS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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#26 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Mar 16, 2012 9:53 pm

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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 11:02 am EST on Saturday 17 March 2012

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from NT/Qld Border to Cape Keerweer, including Mornington and Sweers
Islands.

At 10:00 am EST [9:30 am CST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be
245 kilometres east of Mornington Island and
170 kilometres south of Kowanyama and
moving east southeast at 16 kilometres per hour and slowing.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours.

The centre of the TROPICAL LOW has been relocated further east, over land on
southwestern Cape York Peninsula. However, the low is expected to move back to
the west over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters over the next day or two, and
may develop into a tropical cyclone.

GALES are expected to develop out to 170 kilometres out from the centre and are
possible between the NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer by Monday morning.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for Heavy Rainfall and Abnormally
High Tides for parts of the Gulf Country and Peninsula districts.

People between the NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer should consider what action
they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (http://www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).


Details of Tropical Low at 10:00 am EST [9:30 am CST]:
.Centre located near...... 17.0 degrees South 141.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 95 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east southeast at 16 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 994 hectoPascals


The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Saturday 17 March [4:30 pm CST
Saturday 17 March].

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone
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#27 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Mar 16, 2012 9:54 pm

Image

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A
160 NM RADIUS OF 16.4S 140.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA AT 162030Z INDICATE
THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 140.6E. THE SYSTEM
IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.1S
139.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 140.6E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA. RADAR IMAGERY FROM MORNINGTON
ISLAND SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS ABOUT TO
MOVE BACK OVER LAND NORTH OF DELTA DOWNS. SURFACE WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS AREA SHOW SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE WINDS BETWEEN
10-15 KNOTS. THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW IS 30 KNOTS. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LLCC WILL OSCILLATE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS
CURRENTLY 20-25 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM
HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE REGION HAS HIGH (30 DEGREES CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT, SO ANY PROLONGED
PERIOD OVER THE GULF COULD LEAD TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
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#28 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Mar 17, 2012 12:15 pm

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Latest infrared
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#29 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Mar 17, 2012 12:15 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued at 1:40 am EST on Sunday 18 March 2012

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal and island communities from
NT/Qld Border to Cape Keerweer, including Mornington and Sweers Islands.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Port McArthur to NT/Qld
Border.

At 1:00 am EST [12:30 am CST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be
65 kilometres north northeast of Normanton and
220 kilometres east southeast of Mornington Island and
moving southwest at 8 kilometres per hour.

The TROPICAL LOW over southwestern Cape York Peninsula has began moving
southwestwards and is located near Karumba. The low is expected to take a more
northwesterly track over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters during Sunday
morning, where it may develop into a tropical cyclone overnight on Sunday.

GALES are expected to develop up to 170 kilometres from the low centre,
affecting coastal areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer overnight on
Sunday. GALES may develop between Port McArthur, including Borroloola and
NT/Qld border on Monday, if the cyclone maintains a westward track.

Heavy rain that may lead to flash flooding is expected about the Gulf of
Carpentaria coast and adjacent inland areas between NT/Qld border and Cape
Keerweer.

Water levels on the high tide could also exceed the highest tide of the year
about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and islands between NT/Qld border and Cape
Keerweer.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for Heavy Rain and Abnormally High
Tides for northern Cape York Peninsula and for Torres Strait Islands.

People between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer should take precautions and
listen to the next advice at 5 am EST [4:30 CST].
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (http://www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

For people in the Northern Territory:
The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time
to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and
commence home shelter preparations.

Details of Tropical Low at 1:00 am EST [12:30 am CST]:
.Centre located near...... 17.1 degrees South 141.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 8 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 991 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am EST Sunday 18 March [4:30 am CST
Sunday 18 March].

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone
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Re: SPO: 17U - Tropical Low (96P)

#30 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Mar 17, 2012 10:18 pm

Image

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 10:58 am EST on Sunday 18 March 2012

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from NT/Qld
Border to Cape Keerweer, including Mornington and Sweers Islands.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Port McArthur to NT/Qld
Border.

At 10:00 am EST [9:30 am CST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be
65 kilometres north of Karumba and
170 kilometres east of Mornington Island and
moving northwest at 5 kilometres per hour.

The TROPICAL LOW located over far southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria waters is
moving slowly in a northwesterly direction. The low is expected to continue
moving in a northwesterly direction over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters
today, where it may develop into a tropical cyclone on Monday.

GALES are expected to develop up to 185 kilometres from the low centre,
affecting coastal areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer during Monday
morning. GALES may possibly develop between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld
border, including Borroloola late Monday, only if the cyclone maintains an
overall westward track.

Heavy rain that may lead to flash flooding is expected about the Gulf of
Carpentaria coast and adjacent inland areas between NT/Qld border and Cape
Keerweer.

Water levels on the high tide could also exceed the highest tide of the year
about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and islands between Port McArthur and Cape
Keerweer.


People between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer should take precautions and
listen to the next advice at 2 pm EST [1:30 pm CST].
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (http://www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

For people in the Northern Territory:
The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time
to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and
commence home shelter preparations.

Details of Tropical Low at 10:00 am EST [9:30 am CST]:
.Centre located near...... 16.9 degrees South 140.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the northwest at 5 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm EST Sunday 18 March [1:30 pm CST
Sunday 18 March].

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone
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Re: SPO: 17U - Tropical Low (96P)

#31 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sat Mar 17, 2012 10:29 pm

Just put a video together on the flooding that this low and the through as a whole is causing in QLD.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JoJdtL1dvNw&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]
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Re: SPO: 17U - Tropical Low (96P)

#32 Postby P.K. » Sun Mar 18, 2012 1:59 pm

No longer forecast to be named.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1753 UTC 18/03/2012
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1700 UTC
Latitude: 17.0S
Longitude: 141.0E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [136 deg]
Speed of Movement: 1 knots [3 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: Over land
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 19/0500: 17.6S 140.9E: 070 [130]: 030 [055]:
+24: 19/1700: 18.2S 140.9E: 100 [185]: 025 [045]:
+36: 20/0500: 19.4S 141.5E: 130 [245]: 025 [045]:
+48: 20/1700: 20.6S 142.8E: 165 [305]: 025 [045]:
+60: 21/0500: 21.7S 144.1E: 210 [395]: 025 [045]:
+72: 21/1700: 21.8S 144.8E: 260 [480]: 025 [045]:
REMARKS:
The system is currently over land and the forecast track has a southerly
movement for the next 24 hours before turning south-southeast across central
Queensland. Movement back over water is considered unlikely and therefore the
chances of this low developing into a tropical cyclone are considered low.

Convection has eased near the system centre in the last 3-5 hours with
convective bands persisting, chiefly over water, well to the north. The 12:48UTC
Ascat pass showed near gales to the west of the system and also along the
convective band to the north.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it moves over water.
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#33 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Mar 18, 2012 5:53 pm

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Latest
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#34 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Mar 18, 2012 5:55 pm

Image

latest track
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