WPAC: PAKHAR - Post-Tropical

[RobWESTPACWX]

I think a little re-intensifcation just prior to landfall based on the latest microwave imagery. Here is my latest thoughts on it. [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l99qcRDehW4[/youtube]

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 010300
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 02W (PAKHAR) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (PAKHAR) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON TEN-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 9.8N 108.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 108.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 10.6N 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 11.3N 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 108.6E, OR APPROX 143 NM SE OF HO CHI
MINH CITY. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[euro6208]

although pakhar is a 40 knot (1 minute) tropical system, it looks a bit stronger based on the micronwave imagery. i would estimate the intensity at 60 knots sustained..


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[HURAKAN]

close to landfall

[phwxenthusiast]

is that an eye trying to form??

[RobWESTPACWX]

Sure does, earlier it was visible on microwave imagery but now looks apparent on the vis.

[HurricaneBill]

Is it just me or do systems tend to ramp up in intensity as they approach Vietnam? Kind of like systems approaching landfall on Australia.

[phwxenthusiast]

Ho Chi Minh airport now reporting gusts of around 30kts...

[senorpepr]

Breezy conditions across S Vietnam as Pakhar moves inland.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Interesting system Pakhar.

JTWC issuing warnings with 10-min wind speeds at the moment, maybe part of their "shutdown" between 1st - 7th April. I also noticed they issuing prognostic reasoning product with every warning now, instead of every two warnings in the past.

I enjoyed this discussion from KNES late last night in their Dvorak analysis, Pakhar really has been a bizarre little system:

H. REMARKS...PAKHAR HAS GONE THROUGH A WIDE RANGE OF CHANGES OVER THE
LAST 6HRS...AT TIMES APPEARING TO BE DEVELOPING AN EYE IN A SYMMETRIC
CDO...TO CURRENTLY BEING LIMITED TO A SHEARED BALL OF CONVECTION ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE LLC. 1041Z SSMIS PASS SHOWED A SYSTEM STILL NOT
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH 37GHZ CENTER LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH (9.4) WHILE
89GHZ WAS AROUND (9.8N) ALONG N-S AXIS AT 109.4E. SO THOUGH DT VALUES
A HOUR OR SO AGO WERE 4.0 FOR 10/10 BANDING THEY HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASED TO 3.0 BASED ON .6 BANDING AND CONFIRMATION FROM SHEAR METHOD
OF .25 DEGREES FROM LLC. MET IS 3.5 AS THERE IS SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT OVER
COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO...BUT PT IS 3.0 GIVEN LACK OF SIZE OF CDO AND LACK
OF CONVECTION ON EAST SIDE. FT IS BASED ON DT. GIVEN ORGANIZATION OF
CYCLONIC NATURE PRESENTED IN MI... DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE
MAY BE A BIT LOW IN REALITY.

Let's hope Vietnam gets off lightly with this one!

[senorpepr]

Interesting system Pakhar.

JTWC issuing warnings with 10-min wind speeds at the moment, maybe part of their "shutdown" between 1st - 7th April. I also noticed they issuing prognostic reasoning product with every warning now, instead of every two warnings in the past.

Norfolk shouldn't be issuing based on 10-min. Not sure why they're matched up w/ JMA, though.



Ho Chi Minh (VVTS) seeing some heavy rains roll through, restricting visibility to 1.3 km:
METAR VVTS 011030Z 34018G29KT 1300 R25R/1500D +RA BKN010 OVC030 23/22 Q1004 TEMPO TL1045 34015G30KT 1000 +RA

[senorpepr]

Ho Chi Minh City reporting gusts to 38KT with heavy rain.

METAR VVTS 011130Z 35023G38KT 1800 +RA SCT010 SCT013TCU OVC030 22/22 Q1004 TEMPO TL1230 34020G40KT 0800 +SHRA

[senorpepr]

Latest SYNOP report from Ho Chi Minh City reports 52 mm or 2.05 in of rainfall over the past 12 hours:

AAXX 01121 48900 11495 83423 10226 20220 30033 40043 52006 60522 76166 888// 333 10252 59043 84894 86696 555 20226

[HURAKAN]

nice image of the landfall

[P.K.]

JTWC issuing warnings with 10-min wind speeds at the moment, maybe part of their "shutdown" between 1st - 7th April.

Nice spot, good to seem them using the proper wind average for the basin for once! That advisory wasn't a one off, the latest one is also in 10 min winds.

[phwxenthusiast]

Ho Chi Minh reported a gust of 50kts last night (local time there)...

[euro6208]

amazing small system. it seems that pakhar was intensifying as it heads to vietnam. dvorak severely underestimated this system.

landfall intensity: 70 knots 1 minute winds.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[phwxenthusiast]

are the guys at Norfolk still going to do a 00z warning for Pakhar... seems unusually late now, and i would guess they have to put up an update saying this is their final warning, right??
JMA had their final update already though (meaning it's not on their TC page anymore)...

[Chacor]

There hasn't been a warning since, so Pakhar is dead from both agencies.