WPAC: PAKHAR - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Is now a Tropical Storm per JMA:

TS 1201 (PAKHAR)
Issued at 01:20 UTC, 29 March 2012
<Analyses at 29/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°20'(9.3°)
E112°30'(112.5°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 30/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°25'(9.4°)
E112°25'(112.4°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 31/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°40'(9.7°)
E112°00'(112.0°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 01/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°00'(10.0°)
E111°20'(111.3°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

[dexterlabio]

We'll have the 2nd TD from JTWC this season shortly. NRL now showing 02W on their page. And we'll probably see the first named storm of the season within today. I like it when I'm monitoring the WPAC/SCS for systems at this early.

[cycloneye]

We'll have the 2nd TD from JTWC this season shortly. NRL now showing 02W on their page. And we'll probably see the first named storm of the season within today. I like it when I'm monitoring the WPAC/SCS for systems at this early.

We have TS PAKHAR now per official agency of area JMA.

[dexterlabio]

We'll have the 2nd TD from JTWC this season shortly. NRL now showing 02W on their page. And we'll probably see the first named storm of the season within today. I like it when I'm monitoring the WPAC/SCS for systems at this early.

We have TS PAKHAR now per official agency of area JMA.

Ohhh that was so quick.

[Typhoon Hunter]

I have to say it looks superb, beautiful system. Those spiral bands give it the perfect "TC weather symbol" look!

Wpac season is officially underway!

[HURAKAN]

incredibly beautiful!

[cycloneye]

And the ECMWF once again is the #1 model that nailed this development in a consistent way while GFS was vague.

[oaba09]

incredibly beautiful!

and deadly.....Fortunately for us, this only became a TS after passing over visayas.....

[dexterlabio]

^there's quite a benefit from this storm for us in northern Philippines coz it just induced that cool, breezy northeasterly winds. Today and the last day turned rainy, though.




Well, what can I say about Euro. They nailed it again.

[dexterlabio]

It looks amazing for a minimal TS right now. I'm thinking this couldn't only be the season's first named storm, but could also be the season's first official typhoon. Any thoughts?

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (PAKHAR) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 9.9N 111.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9N 111.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 10.1N 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 10.3N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 10.6N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 10.9N 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 11.4N 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 12.0N 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 111.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (PAKHAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST
OF HO CHI MINH CITY, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

continues to become better organized

[RobWESTPACWX]

Hey all! I posted a video on Pakhar, as always and feedback I am always appreciated, Hope your all have a good night!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEZyk9hA-wk[/youtube]

[phwxenthusiast]

looking better each hour now--looks like on its way to a microcane..

[HURAKAN]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 /1000.7mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.4 3.4

Agreeable

[phwxenthusiast]

warm spot now appearing on IR.. holy cow, are we really going to see an eye by this morning?!?!

[Typhoon Hunter]

Rapidly intensified overnight, T numbers now T4.0 from KNES and PGTW. This could pose a much bigger threat to Vietnam than I was originally thinking.

[phwxenthusiast]

Now a typhoon on the CIMSS page...

[cycloneye]

Still a Tropical Storm per JMA:

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

TS 1201 (PAKHAR)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 30 March 2012
<Analyses at 30/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°50'(9.8°)
E111°20'(111.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 31/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°10'(10.2°)
E110°30'(110.5°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 01/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°40'(10.7°)
E109°05'(109.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 02/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°20'(11.3°)
E107°50'(107.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)