near the southern philippines.
WPAC: Invest 98W
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WPAC: Invest 98W
near the southern philippines.
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dexterlabio
- Category 5
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Re: WPAC: Invest 98W
i say chance is very low, if there's any, that this will develop...only forecast models i see right now are for the ET lows off Japan, nothing about the tropical ones...
maybe we'll have a quiet time in the basin until the 3rd week of may, I guess...
maybe we'll have a quiet time in the basin until the 3rd week of may, I guess...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: Invest 98W
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.5N 130.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 265 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING CONVECTION. A 020121Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS 15-20 KNOT
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WITH WEAK 5-
10 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
APPROXIMATELY 265 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING CONVECTION. A 020121Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS 15-20 KNOT
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WITH WEAK 5-
10 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
Typhoon Hunter
- WesternPacificWeather.com
- Posts: 1215
- Age: 40
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- Location: Hong Kong
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: Invest 98W
I'm not expecting much out of this either given no model support. But watch out Mindanao for heavy rains!
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francis327
- WesternPacificWeather.com
- Posts: 81
- Joined: Mon Nov 07, 2011 9:04 am
- Location: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
- Contact:
ABPW10 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZMAY2012//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.5N
130.6E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZMAY2012//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.5N
130.6E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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